000 AXNT20 KNHC 081200 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT MON SEP 08 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... HURRICANE IKE MADE LANDFALL ALONG THE COAST OF CUBA NEAR CABO LUCRECIA AT 08/0145 UTC. THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE AT 08/1200 UTC IS NEAR 21.1N 77.9W OR ABOUT 17 NM SOUTH OF CAMAGUEY CUBA MOVING WEST AT 12 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 960 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 21N TO 22N BETWEEN 77W AND 78W. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS IN GENERAL COVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 16N TO 23N BETWEEN 70W AT THE SOUTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TO CUBA BETWEEN 79W AND 80W. A SEPARATE BAND OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS CURVES FROM THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 21N85W TO 16N80W...TO 15N78W...AND THROUGH THE JAMAICAN CHANNEL TOWARD SOUTHEASTERN CUBA. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS COVER THE AREA FROM 15N IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO 28N IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN BETWEEN 60W AND 82W. THE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW AWAY FROM IKE IS EVIDENT. A HINT OF MIDDLE LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW...EITHER WITH A CENTER OR A TROUGH...IS FROM 13N TO 16N BETWEEN 78W AND 82W. THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA NORTH OF HONDURAS WEST OF 80W IS NORTHERLY. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW FROM IKE COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA NORTH OF 14N EAST OF 77W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW IS NORTH OF 17N BETWEEN 60W AND 65W. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS JUST TO THE EAST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. THIS TROUGH HAS BEEN IN THE MIDDLE OF HURRICANE IKE AND THE REMNANT LOW OF JOSEPHINE FOR THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 41W/42W SOUTH OF 12N MOVING WEST 15 KT. THIS WAVE REMAINS DIFFICULT TO DISCERN ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. ITCZ PRECIPITATION IS TO THE EAST OF THIS WAVE. A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 69W/70W SOUTH OF 16N MOVING WEST 15 KT. APPARENT MIDDLE LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IS ON TOP OF THE AREA OF THIS WAVE...SOUTH OF 14N BETWEEN 67W AND 73W. ...THE ITCZ... 15N17W 10N27W 8N35W 9N50W BEYOND TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE JUST OFF THE COAST OF SIERRA LEONE FROM 6N TO 8N BETWEEN 14W AND 15W. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 6N TO 10N BETWEEN 34W AND 38W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE FROM COASTAL LIBERIA NEAR 4N TO 6N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 30W...AND ELSEWHERE FROM 5N TO 10N BETWEEN 40W AND 55W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 86W FROM 26N SOUTHWARD INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. A MIDDLE LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 26N86W TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EAST OF THE TROUGH AND UNDER THE RIDGE. A SECOND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 26N95W 20N98W. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION FLOW IS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA FROM 18N TO 23N BETWEEN THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND 100W...IN BROAD SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AND POSSIBLY NEAR SOME AMOUNT OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A HINT OF MIDDLE LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW...EITHER WITH A CENTER OR A TROUGH...IS FROM 13N TO 16N BETWEEN 78W AND 82W. THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA NORTH OF HONDURAS WEST OF 80W IS NORTHERLY. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW FROM IKE COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA NORTH OF 14N EAST OF 77W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW IS NORTH OF 17N BETWEEN 60W AND 65W. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS JUST TO THE EAST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 69W/70W SOUTH OF 16N MOVING WEST 15 KT. APPARENT MIDDLE LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IS ON TOP OF THE AREA OF THIS WAVE...SOUTH OF 14N BETWEEN 67W AND 73W. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 30N51W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER TO 25N54W 19N57W TO 15N59W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 26N TO 32N BETWEEN 50W AND 60W...FROM 15N TO 20N BETWEEN 54W AND 60W...AND FROM 19N TO 23N BETWEEN 47W AND 50W. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 30N65W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE FROM 25N TO 32N BETWEEN 60W AND 70W. THE 1013 MB REMNANT LOW PRESSURE CENTER OF JOSEPHINE IS NEAR 18N44W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE FROM 18N TO 22N BETWEEN 40W AND 45W. A DEEP LAYER TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 30N18W TO A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 26N27W TO 22N31W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM EAST OF THE TROUGH NORTH OF 30N. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT WHOSE SOUTHERNMOST POINT REACHES 31N20W. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NORTH OF 25N BETWEEN 30W AND 65W...AROUND A 1024 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 36N49W. $$ MT/PW