000 AXNT20 KNHC 080000 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT SUN SEP 07 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... HURRICANE IKE IS CENTERED NEAR 21.1N 75.2W AT 08/0000 UTC OR ABOUT 65 NM NORTH OF GUANTANAMO CUBA AND ALSO ABOUT 25 NM EAST OF PUNTO DE SAMA ON THE NORTH COAST OF EASTERN CUBA MOVING W AT 12 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 945 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 105 KT WITH GUSTS TO 130 KT. PLEASE SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT4/ WTNT24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. IKE IS A DANGEROUS CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW BUT IKE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A MAJOR HURRICANE AS IT APPROACHES ERN CUBA THEN WEAKEN AS IT MOVES OVER ERN AND CENTRAL CUBA ON MON. GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS THEN FORECAST AS THE CENTER MOVES BACK OUT OVER THE THE OPEN WATERS OF THE SE GULF OF MEXICO BY MIDWEEK. SCATTERED MODERATE/ ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 70 NM OF THE CENTER IN THE NW QUADRANT AND WITHIN 100 NM OF THE CENTER ALL OTHER QUADRANTS. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSTMS COVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA FROM 17N-24N BETWEEN 70W-77W...INCLUDING THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS ...SE BAHAMAS...ERN CUBA AND HISPANIOLA. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 38W S OF 12N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. WAVE REMAINS DIFFICULT TO DISCERN ON SATELLITE IMAGERY AND EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ. POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE FROM 4N-9N BETWEEN 36W-41W. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 67W S OF 16N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT BASED ON EXTRAPOLATION. SE WINDS ARE ACROSS THE ERN CARIBBEAN AND THIS WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN LOW-LEVEL WINDS STREAMING INTO THE CIRCULATION OF HURRICANE IKE. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSTMS ARE S OF 15N E OF 66W AND ARE LIKELY GENERATED IN TANDEM WITH THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE ITCZ ACROSS THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. ...THE ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED ALONG 13N16W 6N34W 9N42W 14N55W 12N62W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-9N BETWEEN 28W-36W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS ACROSS THE WINDWARD ISLANDS FROM 9N-15N BETWEEN 58W-65W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... PREDOMINATELY ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS ACROSS THE S/CENTRAL AND SERN CONUS. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED ACROSS ERN MEXICO NEAR 23N99W AND EXTENDS RIDGING ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND FLORIDA PENINSULA. A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY ENTERS THE NE GULF NEAR APALACHICOLA BAY FLORIDA SW TO 28N90W THEN WESTWARD TO NEAR CORPUS CHRISTI AS A WARM FRONT. SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED TSTMS ARE ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ACROSS THE NW GULF IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE WARM FRONT N OF 27N AND W OF 91W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS NORTHWARD FROM THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC INTO THE WRN BAY OF CAMPECHE TO 22N95W. WITH THIS TROUGH AT THE SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ALOFT...SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE S OF 25N BETWEEN 84W-99W...INCLUDING WRN CUBA...THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. CARIBBEAN SEA... HURRICANE IKE CONTINUES TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS OVER THE N/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AS IT TRACKS TOWARDS ERN CUBA TONIGHT... SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSTMS ACROSS THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND YUCATAN PENINSULA N OF 20N AND W OF 81W. AN UPPER RIDGE ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE IKE IS DRAWING A SWATH OF DRY AIR W AND SW OF THE SYSTEM ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA AND THE WRN CARIBBEAN. MODERATE SUBSIDENCE/DRY AIR IS ACROSS THE WRN CARIBBEAN SEA S OF 18N AND W OF 75W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSTMS ARE S OF 10N W OF NRN COLOMBIA TO INLAND OVER PANAMA AND COSTA RICA. THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OVER THE ERN CARIBBEAN IS ASSOCIATED PRIMARILY WITH THE ITCZ...SEE ABOVE...AND THE BASE OF A CENTRAL ATLC TROUGH EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. ATLANTIC OCEAN... HURRICANE IKE CONTINUES TO BE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE W ATLC AS IT TRACKS TOWARDS ERN CUBA AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO ...SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE IKE COVERS THE W ATLC S OF 30N AND W OF 62W RESULTING IN MULTILAYERED OUTFLOW CLOUDINESS WITHIN 200 NM W OF THE CENTER AND 600 NM TO THE E OF THE CENTER. AN ELONGATED UPPER CUTOFF LOW IS CONFINED TO THE CENTRAL ATLC CENTERED NEAR 22N52W. THIS UPPER LOW IS ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ THAT IS OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS ALONG WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS E OF THE TROUGH WITHIN 90 NM OF A LINE FROM 21N49W TO 13N59W. THE REMNANT OF JOSEPHINE...A 1010 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 17N42W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS N OF THE CENTER FROM 18N-21N BETWEEN 42W-45W. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE ENCOMPASSES THE ERN ATLC S OF 28N AND E OF 47W WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE FAR NE ATLC N OF 23N AND E OF 30W. AT THE SURFACE...A BROAD RIDGE COVERS THE AREA N OF 24N BETWEEN 20W-65W ANCHORED N OF THE REGION BY A 1024 MB HIGH. $$ HUFFMAN