000 AXNT20 KNHC 070604 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT SAT SEP 06 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... HANNA IS PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS MOST OF NEW ENGLAND. AT 07/0600 UTC...ITS CENTER IS NEAR 41.6N 71.9W OR OVER EXTREME EASTERN CONNECTICUT MOVING NORTHEAST AT 27 KT. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE CENTER OF HANNA WILL MOVE NEAR OR OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING...AND MOVE OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 992 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. PLEASE SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. HANNA IS BEGINNING TO LOSE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS...AND IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ACROSS NEW ENGLAND...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD PRODUCE FLASH FLOODS ACROSS THE REGION. HURRICANE IKE IS CENTERED NEAR 21.3N 71.4W AT 07/0600 UTC OR OVER THE TURKS ISLANDS MOVING JUST SOUTH OF DUE W AT 13 KT. A WEST TO WEST-SOUTHWEST MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY WITH A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST EXPECTED ON MONDAY. ON THIS TRACK...THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE WILL MOVE OVER OR NEAR THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS THIS MORNING AND MOVE NEAR OR OVER EASTERN CUBA TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 947 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT. PLEASE SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT4/ WTNT24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. IKE IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS AND SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS. HISPANIOLA AND EASTERN CUBA COULD SEE 6 TO 12 INCHES OF RAIN WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 20 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 32W S OF 18N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. THE WAVE PAIRED WITH THE ITCZ IS GENERATING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 3N-6N BETWEEN 27W-34W. THE TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ALONG 60W ON THE 0000 UTC SURFACE MAP WILL BE RELOCATED ALONG 57W/58W ON THE NEXT MAP BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY THAT SHOWS CLUSTERS OF MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 10-14N BETWEEN 54W-58W. SFC WINDS ACROSS THE WINDWARD ISLANDS ARE BLOWING FROM THE NE INDICATING THE APPROACHING WAVE. IN ADDITION...THE TPW PRODUCT FROM CIMSS REVEALS A BULGE OF MOISTURE ALONG THIS LONGITUDE. 850 MB SATELLITE DERIVED VORTICITY ALSO SUPPORTS THE POSITION OF THE WAVE AXIS. ...THE ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS ALONG 13N17W 6N26W 9N35W 10N46W 12N60W. BESIDES THE CONVECTION MENTIONED IN THE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION... SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60-70 NM N OF AXIS BETWEEN 19W-27W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AS OF 0300 UTC...A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS ALONG 30N89W 27N92W TO NE MEXICO NEAR 25N97.5W. A 130 NM WIDE BAND OF MULTILAYERED CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE ALONG 93W/94W S OF 23N. THIS TROUGH IS GENERATING AN AREA OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION S OF 20N. SINCE EARLY THIS MORNING THE CITY OF VERACRUZ MEXICO IS REPORTING MAINLY LIGHT RAIN. AN EARLIER QSCAT PASS SHOWED NE WINDS OF 15-20 KT OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND NE WINDS OF 10 KT BEHIND THE FRONTAL SYSTEM. A SFC RIDGE FROM THE ATLC DOMINATES THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE GULF AND THE STATE OF FLORIDA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS MOST OF THE AREA WITH A LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. CLIPPING THE FAR N CENTRAL GULF. THIS UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS SUPPORTING THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY. CARIBBEAN SEA... ALL THE ATTENTION REMAINS FOCUSED ON THE EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE IKE THAT IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER OR NEAR EASTERN CUBA TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY. OUTER RAINBANDS ASSOCIATED WITH IKE ARE AFFECTING THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA. THE SAN JUAN DOPPLER RADAR DEPICTS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS MOVING ACROSS THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND E AND SE PORTION OF PUERTO RICO UNDER A SE WIND FLOW. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES FOR DETAILS ABOUT IKE. THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS PRETTY QUIET TONIGHT WITH SHALLOW TOPPED SHOWERS AND HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE OUTFLOW OF IKE. ALOFT...UPPER-LEVEL ELY FLOW DOMINATES THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN WHILE AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC ENTERS THE E CARIBBEAN BETWEEN GUADALOUPE AND MARTINIQUE. ATLANTIC OCEAN... MAJOR HURRICANE IKE IS THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS OVER THE SW ATLC...SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. IN THE TROPICS... A 1008 MB SFC LOW...REMNANTS OF JOSEPHINE...IS CENTERED NEAR 17N39W. A SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS DEFINES THE LOW CENTER WITH A COUPLE OF CLUSTERS OF MODERATE CONVECTION ON THE N SEMICIRCLE NEAR 19.5N38.5W AND THE STRONGEST ONE NEAR 19.5N42W. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE CURRENTLY UNFAVORABLE FOR RE-DEVELOPMENT TO OCCUR. A 1026 MB HIGH LOCATED NEAR 38N44W EXTENDS A RIDGE SWWD INTO THE E PORTION OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND ALSO ENVELOPS THE N PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. A MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL AND W ATLC INTO FLORIDA AND THE EASTERN GULF IS STEERING IKE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD. AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 22N51W HAS A TROUGH EXTENDING SW INTO THE E CARIBBEAN. THE E ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF RIDGE ANCHORED ON A HIGH SITUATED NEAR 20N31W. A JET-STREAM BRANCH IS PRODUCING ABUNDANT CLOUDINESS WITH POSSIBLE SHOWERS OVER THE CANARY ISLANDS. $$ GR