000 AXNT20 KNHC 070010 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT SAT SEP 06 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... TROPICAL STORM HANNA IS CENTERED NEAR 39.5N 74.6W AT 07/0000 UTC NEAR ATLANTIC CITY NEW JERSEY MOVING NE AT 24 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 992 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. PLEASE SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. HANNA IS EXPECTED TO LOSE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS IN 12-24 HOURS. HANNA IS ENTERING THE WESTERLIES AND SHOULD ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD FOR THE NEXT 24-36 HR..FOLLOWED BY A RAPID EASTWARD MOTION. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF NEW JERSEY FROM 38N-40N BETWEEN 72W-75W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER NEW ENGLAND FROM 41W-44W BETWEEN 70W-75W. HURRICANE IKE IS CENTERED NEAR 21.3N 70.2W AT 07/0000 UTC OR ABOUT 60 MILES...105 KM...EAST OF GRAND TURK ISLAND MOVING WSW AT 13 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 947 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT. PLEASE SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT4/ WTNT24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. IKE HAS INTENSIFIED TO A EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. IKE IS NOW FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTH OF THE COOLER WATERS UPWELLED BY HANNA. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 18N-24N BETWEEN 67W-72W TO INCLUDE NE HISPANIOLA. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS W OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS ALONG 31W S OF 18N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. WEAK CURVATURE IS OBSERVED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM 2N-13N BETWEEN 30W-35W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO FROM 3N-7N BETWEEN 23W-30W. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 60W S OF 15N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. WAVE REMAINS LOW AMPLITUDE AND APPEARS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 11N-14N BETWEEN 54W-58W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 11N-15N BETWEEN 58W-63W. ...THE ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS ALONG 12N16W 6N23W 10N34W 8N40W 12N55W 12N62W. BESIDES THE CONVECTION MENTIONED IN THE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION... SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 9N-11N BETWEEN 17W-20W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO S TEXAS ALONG 31N87W 27N90W 26N97W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM OF THE FRONT. A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE ALONG 22N97W 18N94W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 17N-22N BETWEEN 93W-96W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM 18N-22N BETWEEN 88W-92W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER W CUBA FROM 22N-24N BETWEEN 80W-85W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A BROAD UPPER LONGWAVE TROUGH IS OVER THE US INTO THE NW GULF. A WEAK INVERTED UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF S MEXICO IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 18N93W TO 22N94W. EXPECT CONVECTION OVER THE SRN GULF OF MEXICO S OF 25N DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CARIBBEAN SEA.. HURRICANE IKE IS GENERATING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER A PORTION OF THE GREATER ANTILLES BETWEEN THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND E CUBA...SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALSO ENTERING THE E CARIBBEAN. SEE ABOVE. ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER PANAMA FROM 8N-10N BETWEEN 80W-82W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...EASTERLY FLOW COVERS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA. EXPECT HURRICANE IKE AND THE TROPICAL WAVE TO BE THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURES OVER THE CARIBBEAN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... HURRICANE IKE IS THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS OVER THE SW ATLC...SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. IN THE TROPICS...THE REMNANTS OF JOSEPHINE IS CENTERED NEAR 17N38W WITH 1009 MB. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM 17N-21N BETWEEN 36W-40W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC N OF 20N AND W OF 70W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 23N50W. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 20N25W. $$ FORMOSA