000 AXNT20 KNHC 051148 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT FRI SEP 05 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC... ...SPECIAL FEATURES... THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HANNA AT 05/1200 UTC IS NEAR 28.2N 78.8W...OR ABOUT 100 NM EAST OF MELBOURNE FLORIDA AND ABOUT 370 NM SOUTH OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA MOVING NW AT 15 KT. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE JUST REPORTED BY THE AIRCRAFT WAS 980 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 27N TO 29N BETWEEN 77W AND 80W. CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS AND RAIN HAVE SPREAD ACROSS FLORIDA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO EAST OF 87W. THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE AT 05/0900 UTC IS NEAR 23.7N 61.0W MOVING WEST 13 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 945 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT. PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER MIATCPAT4/WTNT34 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 21N TO 24N BETWEEN 60W AND 63W. THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JOSEPHINE AT 05/0900 UTC IS NEAR 15.7N 34.3W MOVING NORTHWEST 8 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1001 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER MIATCPAT5/WTNT35 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 16N TO 19N BETWEEN 31W AND 35W. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 21W/22W SOUTH OF 19N MOVING WEST 10 KT. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 17N TO 18N BETWEEN 22W AND 25W. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 52W SOUTH OF 16N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. THIS WAVE WAS RE-POSITIONED ON THE 05/0000 UTC SURFACE MAP ANALYSIS IN ORDER TO AGREE WITH THE THEN-CURRENT QUIKSCAT DATA. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS IN THE ITCZ ARE FROM 10N TO 14N BETWEEN 50W AND 56W. ...THE ITCZ... THE ITCZ HAS BEEN BROKEN UP BY THE ACTIVITY OF THE TROPICAL WAVES AND THE TROPICAL CYCLONES. AN ITCZ IS ALONG 9N13W 8N19W...13N23W 14N30W...12N36W 9N44W 7N51W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 3N TO 6N BETWEEN 9W AND 12W...FROM 3N TO 8N BETWEEN 15W AND 26W...FROM THE EQUATOR TO 4N BETWEEN 37W AND 41W...FROM 10N TO 14N BETWEEN 22W AND 38W. SCATTERED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE TO THE SOUTH OF THE BASE OF THE TROUGH THAT IS BETWEEN TROPICAL STORM JOSEPHINE AND HURRICANE IKE...FROM 10N TO 13N BETWEEN 44W AND 47W...SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE FROM 7N TO 13N BETWEEN 42W AND 60W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO WEST OF 90W... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH IS ALONG 25N94W 22N95W 18N95W. THE FRONT FROM SIX HOURS AGO HAS WEAKENED AND ALL BUT DISSIPATED. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE WEST OF 90W. THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO SOUTH OF 22N WEST OF 93W. THE GULF OF MEXICO EAST OF 90W...FROM THE CAROLINAS TO SOUTH FLORIDA INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA... AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WEST OF 70W... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STARTS FROM THE CAROLINAS TO SOUTH FLORIDA TO WESTERN CUBA NEAR 22N84W...ENTERING THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...REACHING HONDURAS NEAR 16N86W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS BETWEEN 87W AND 90W IN THE GULF OF MEXICO NORTH OF 24N...AND THEN SOUTH OF 24N EAST OF 90W...AND ALSO NORTH OF 17N WEST OF 80W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA. TROPICAL STORM HANNA IS ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THIS TROUGH JUST EAST OF THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN A CURVED LINE THAT COVERS THE AREA NORTH OF 24N BETWEEN 68W AND 70W...AND NORTH OF 30N BETWEEN 70W AND 74W. THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA EAST OF THE WESTERN CUBA 22N84W TO HONDURAS 16N86W TROUGH... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS IN VENEZUELA NEAR 7N70W. CYCLONIC FLOW TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER COVERS THE AREA SOUTH OF 17N EAST OF 72W/73W IN DRY AIR/ SUBSIDENCE. SOME HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE THAT IS SPINNING AROUND HURRICANE IKE IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN IS MAKING ITS WAY INTO THE ATLANTIC WATERS FROM 17N TO 20N EAST OF PUERTO RICO. MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS ARE IN THE MIDDLE OF THE AREAS OF DRY AIR/SUBSIDENCE AND CYCLONIC FLOW...ONE WITH THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER TROUGH AND THE OTHER ONE APPROACHING FROM THE EAST. THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE WHOLE TROUGH THAT WAS TO THE WEST OF TROPICAL STORM HANNA HAS SHIFTED NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS. IT NOW ENGULFS THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S.A. FROM THE CAROLINAS TO FLORIDA AND CUBA...INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE HAS MOVED INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...FROM NORTH OF HURRICANE IKE TO HISPANIOLA AND THEN NORTHWARD TO THE WATERS TO THE EAST OF TROPICAL STORM HANNA. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 31N27W TO 28N37W TO A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 18N45W TO 13N49W. THIS CENTER IS IN THE MIDDLE OF TROPICAL STORM JOSEPHINE AND HURRICANE IKE. BROAD NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW IS NORTHEAST OF HURRICANE IKE. $$ MT/PAW