000 AXNT20 KNHC 041202 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT THU SEP 04 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HANNA AT 04/1200 UTC IS NEAR 24.1N 73.1W... OR ABOUT 325 MILES/525 KM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF NASSAU IN THE BAHAMAS. HANNA IS MOVING NORTHWEST 10 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 990 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. THE DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION OF HANNA IS BEING RIPPED UP AND CUT UP BY THE FLOW AROUND THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO THE WEST OF HANNA. INDIVIDUAL CELLS OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN A LINE FROM 22N TO 30N BETWEEN 67W AND 71W. THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE AT 04/0900 UTC IS NEAR 22.7N 55.8W MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST 15 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 935 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 125 KT WITH GUSTS TO 155 KT. PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER MIATCPAT4/WTNT34 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 21N TO 24N BETWEEN 54W AND 57W. THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JOSEPHINE AT 04/0900 UTC IS NEAR 14.2N 31.3W MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST 10 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER MIATCPAT5/WTNT35 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 14N TO 17N BETWEEN 29W AND 33W. ...TROPICAL WAVES... ONE TROPICAL WAVE IS GETTING READY TO MOVE OFF THE COAST OF AFRICA...SPARKING ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS FROM 13N TO 19N BETWEEN 16W AND 22W. ...THE ITCZ... 10N13W 10N26W 9N39W 8N50W TO TRINIDAD. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 40W AND 50W...AND ELSEWHERE FROM 5N TO 11N BETWEEN 30W AND 60W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE YUCATAN PENINSULA/GUATEMALA/MEXICO... A WEAK MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA TO THE LOWER TEXAS COAST/NORTHEASTERN MEXICO. BROAD SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AND A TROUGH COINCIDE WITH THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. SHOWERS ARE DEVELOPING ALONG THE SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA COAST...AND REMAIN ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST...AND IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA SOUTH OF 21N. ANOTHER WEAK MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 26N89W TO THE NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA TO 19N86W IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. FROM THE BAHAMAS ACROSS CUBA INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STARTS FROM A 23N76W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...CROSSES EASTERN CUBA NEAR 21N77W...AND ENTERS THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 17N83W...REACHING WESTERN HONDURAS NEAR 15N88W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM THE NICARAGUA/HONDURAS BORDER NEAR 15N83W TO THE HAITI COAST NEAR 18N73W...TO THE PRECIPITATION WITH THE INVERTED TROUGH. THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA EAST OF THE 23N76W 15N88W TROUGH... UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW FROM TROPICAL STORM HANNA COVERS THE AREA EAST OF 67W/68W. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH ROLLS WESTWARD FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE EXTREME EASTERN PART OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. DRY AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS EAST OF 67/68W. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 10N TO 14N BETWEEN 69W AND 74W FROM THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO NORTHERN COLOMBIA AND NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA TO THE WEST OF THE INVERTED TROUGH. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE BASE OF A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH REACHES 33N70W FROM POINTS TO THE NORTH. THIS TROUGH IS COMPLETELY SEPARATED FROM THE TROUGH THAT IS JUST TO THE WEST OF TROPICAL STORM HANNA. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 20N39W IN THE MIDDLE OF TROPICAL STORM JOSEPHINE AND HURRICANE IKE. CYCLONIC FLOW GOES FROM 14N TO 28N BETWEEN 34W AND 50W. $$ MT