000 AXNT20 KNHC 040620 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT THU SEP 04 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0345 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HANNA AT 04/0600 UTC IS NEAR 23.7N 72.4W...OR ABOUT 325 MILES/525 KM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF NASSAU IN THE BAHAMAS. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 989 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 23N TO 25N BETWEEN 72W AND 74W. OTHER ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE FROM 20N TO 30N BETWEEN 65W AND 74W. THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE AT 04/0300 UTC IS NEAR 22.1N 54.1W MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST 15 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 948 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT. PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER MIATCPAT4/WTNT34 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 20N TO 24N BETWEEN 53W AND 57W. THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JOSEPHINE AT 04/0300 UTC IS NEAR 13.9N 30.7W MOVING WEST 10 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER MIATCPAT5/WTNT35 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 14N TO 17N BETWEEN 29W AND 32W. ...TROPICAL WAVES... ONE TROPICAL WAVE IS GETTING READY TO MOVE OFF THE COAST OF AFRICA...SPARKING SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 65W/66W FROM 24 HOURS AGO HAS BEEN DELETED FROM THE ANALYSIS. ...THE ITCZ... 10N13W 9N18W 10N45W 9N54W...TO TRINIDAD. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 13N TO 18N BETWEEN 14W AND 20W. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 13N TO 15N BETWEEN 39W AND 41W...WITHIN A 15 NM TO 30 NM RADIUS OF 12N43W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE FROM 5N TO 10N BETWEEN 30W AND 53W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE YUCATAN PENINSULA/GUATEMALA/MEXICO... A WEAK MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA TO THE LOWER TEXAS COAST/NORTHEASTERN MEXICO. BROAD SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AND A TROUGH COINCIDE WITH THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. SHOWERS ARE DEVELOPING IN LOUISIANA AND DISSIPATING ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST. ANOTHER WEAK MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 26N89W TO THE NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA TO 19N 86W IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN CENTRAL AMERICA FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND GUATEMALA TO MEXICO SOUTH OF 20N ALONG 100W. FROM THE BAHAMAS ACROSS CUBA INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STARTS FROM A 23N76W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...CROSSES EASTERN CUBA NEAR 21N77W...AND ENTERS THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 17N83W...REACHING WESTERN HONDURAS NEAR 15N88W. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN NORTHERN NICARAGUA NORTH OF 13N EAST OF 85W. THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA EAST OF THE 23N76W 15N88W TROUGH.., UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW FROM TROPICAL STORM HANNA COVERS THE AREA EAST OF 66W. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH ROLLS WESTWARD FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE EXTREME EASTERN PART OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. DRY AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS EAST OF 66W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE EAST OF 81W. ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 16N TO 18N BETWEEN 65W AND 66W. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE BASE OF A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH REACHES 33N71W FROM POINTS TO THE NORTH. THIS TROUGH IS COMPLETELY SEPARATED FROM THE TROUGH THAT IS JUST TO THE WEST OF TROPICAL STORM HANNA. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...WITHIN 120 NM TO 150 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 27N67W BEYOND 32N61W. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 22N38W IN THE MIDDLE OF TROPICAL STORM JOSEPHINE AND TROPICAL STORM IKE. CYCLONIC FLOW GOES FROM 14N TO 30N BETWEEN 30W AND 50W. $$ MT