000 AXNT20 KNHC 040002 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...CORRECTION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT WED SEP 03 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... TROPICAL DEPRESSION GUSTAV IS NEARLY STATIONARY OVER SW ARKANSAS WITH HEAVY RAIN CONTINUING OVER MISSOURI AND THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AT 03/2100Z...ITS CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 33.8N 94.2W OR ABOUT 20 NM N-NW OF TEXARKANA ARKANSAS AND ABOUT 70 NM SOUTHWEST OF HOT SPRINGS ARKANSAS. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AND AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND THURSDAY AS GUSTAV INTERACTS WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND BECOMES EXTRATROPICAL. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 22 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998 MB. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUE TO SHOW THE BROAD CIRCULATION OF GUSTAV WITH NARROW OUTER RAINBANDS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE N/CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO AND FLORIDA PANHANDLE. TROPICAL STORM HANNA IS CENTERED NEAR 22.6N 71.8W OR ABOUT 175 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF SAN SALVADOR IN THE BAHAMAS AND ABOUT 340 NM EAST-SOUTHWEST OF NASSAU AT 04/0000 UTC MOVING N AT 12 KT. A TURN TO THE NORTHWEST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 989 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IN THE NRN SEMICIRCLE IS GENERATING SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION ACROSS THE W ATLC FROM 23N-26N BETWEEN 67W-73W. SOUTHERLY MID-UPPER LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN IS PROVIDING ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE FOR SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ACROSS THE ERN CARIBBEAN... HISPANIOLA...PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS FROM 14N-21N BETWEEN 64W-74W. HANNA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL TOTALS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES...WITH MAXIMUM ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES... OVER THE SERN BAHAMAS...THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS...AND ERN CUBA. ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN PUERTO RICO. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 15 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE OVER HISPANIOLA... WHERE THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF HANNA SHOULD BE MOVING JUST EAST OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE ACROSS THE BAHAMAS THURSDAY AND THE NORTH AND CENTRAL EAST COAST OF FLORIDA BY FRIDAY MORNING. HURRICANE IKE IS CENTERED NEAR 21.7N 53.2W OR ABOUT 560 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AT 04/0000 UTC MOVING W-NW AT 16 KT. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TO THE WEST ON FRIDAY...TAKING IKE OVER THE OPEN WATERS OF THE W/CENTRAL ATLC DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 960 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 100 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS. IKE IS A DANGEROUS CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/ WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS INDICATES THAT IKE HAS INTENSIFIED...DEVELOPING AN EYE IN THE PROCESS. THE FORECAST TRACKS IKE ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A BROAD UPPER LEVEL HIGH ENCOMPASSING MUCH OF THE CENTRAL ATLC. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 100 NM OF THE CENTER IN ALL QUADRANTS. TROPICAL STORM JOSEPHINE IS CENTERED NEAR 13.8N 29.9W OR ABOUT 225 NM WEST OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS AT 03/2100 UTC MOVING W AT 11 KT. A WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST THROUGH THURSDAY...BUT A WEAKENING TREND IS FORECAST TO BEGIN ON FRIDAY. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A TROUGH TO THE WEST THAT WILL PROVIDE INCREASED UPPER LEVEL SHEAR. CONVECTION THIS EVENING CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE SHOWING LITTLE ORGANIZATION WITH SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 13N-17N BETWEEN 26W-30W LOCATED PRIMARILY IN THE NE QUADRANT. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE IS NEARLY READY TO EMERGE OFF THE W AFRICAN COAST. THE VERTICAL SOUNDING FROM DAKAR THIS MORNING SHOWS NE WINDS AT LOW LEVELS. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSTMS ARE ACROSS INTERIOR SENEGAL...GAMBIA...AND GUINEA BISSAU THIS EVENING. ...THE ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED ALONG 10N13W 8N17W 10N24W 9N32W 7N45W 11N59W. NO ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS ARE OBSERVED. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE IS POSITIONED ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO IN THE WAKE OF T.D. GUSTAV THAT IS INLAND OVER SWRN ARKANSAS. ISOLATED SHOWERS REMAIN IN PREDOMINATELY SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW N OF 26N AND CONTINUE TO STREAM INTO THE INLAND CIRCULATION OF GUSTAV. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER SRN BAJA CALIFORNIA EXTENDS ACROSS NE MEXICO TO NEAR SE LOUISIANA AND COVERS THE GULF W OF 80W...INCLUDING THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE AND A WEAK 1008 MB SURFACE LOW CENTERED NEAR 19N94W ARE GENERATING AN AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ACROSS THE WRN YUCATAN PENINSULA...SRN MEXICO AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE/DRY AIR IS NOTED OVER THE WESTERN GULF N OF 22N AND W OF 91W. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE MAIN WEATHER PRODUCER ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN IS T.S. HANNA AND THE CONVECTIVE BANDS OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE ERN PORTION OF THE BASIN...SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE FOR DETAILS. AREAS OF HEAVY RAINFALL...GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALIZED FLOODING ARE ALSO AFFECTING LARGE SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS... AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...INCLUDING THE MONA AND ANEGADA PASSAGES. RAINBANDS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSTMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE OVERALL CIRCULATION OF HANNA COVER THE AREA FROM 14N-20N BETWEEN 64W-73W. A LINE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS ALSO EXTENDS WITHIN 50 NM OF A LINE FROM 16N74W SW TO 13N78W. THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER RIDGE ACROSS MEXICO EXTENDS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN PROVIDING UPPER DIFFLUENCE TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS SRN HONDURAS AND NRN NICARAGUA. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FROM THE SW ATLC EXTENDS ACROSS THE ERN CARIBBEAN PROVIDING SUBSIDENCE/DRY AIR E OF 63W. ATLANTIC OCEAN... THREE TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE LOCATED IN THE DISCUSSION AREA...SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE FOR DETAILS. AN UPPER LOW IS CENTERED SW OF THE BAHAMAS NEAR 23N77W. THIS LOW IS BRINGING MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE/DRY AIR SOUTH OVER THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA AND THE NW BAHAMAS. AN LARGE EXPANSIVE UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS IN THE CENTRAL ATLC CENTERED NEAR 28N52W AND COVERS THE ATLC N OF 12N BETWEEN 42W-73W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS SW ACROSS THE ERN ATLC TO AN NEAR CUT-OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW LOCATED NEAR 20N36W. UPPER-LEVEL ELY WINDS DOMINATE MOST OF THE DEEP TROPICS W OF 38W. AT THE SURFACE...A 1026 MB HIGH LOCATED NEAR 35N42W EXTENDS A RIDGE OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND ERN ATLC E OF 50W. THE SRN EXTENT OF A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT ENTERS THE AREA NEAR 32N60W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS E OF THE FRONT FROM 30N-32N BETWEEN 57W-60W. $$ HUFFMAN