000 AXNT20 KNHC 031203 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT WED SEP 03 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION GUSTAV AT 03/0900 UTC IS NEAR 33.6NO 94.3W...OR ABOUT 20 MILES/32 KM WEST-NORTHWEST OF TEXARKANA ARKANSAS AND 120 MILES/193 KM SOUTH OF FORT SMITH ARKANSAS. GUSTAV IS DRIFTING NORTH-NORTHWEST 3 MPH...5 KM/HR. THIS MOTION SHOULD SHIFT TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 20 MPH/ 32 KM/HR WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 997 MB. PLEASE READ THE LATEST HPC PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ALL THE STRONG PRECIPITATION IS OVER LAND FROM LOUISIANA TO SOUTHERN MISSOURI BETWEEN WESTERN ALABAMA AND EAST TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA. THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HANNA AT 03/1200 UTC IS NEAR 20.3N 71.8W OR ABOUT 95 NM SOUTHEAST OF GREAT INAGUA ISLAND MOVING EAST 4 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 996 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 16N TO 19N BETWEEN PUERTO RICO AT 67W AND 74W SOUTH OF HAITI, THE WHOLE AREA ELSEWHERE FROM 12N TO 22N BETWEEN 64W AND 76W IS COVERED BY CLOUDS AND OTHER AREAS OF PRECIPITATION AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF T.S. HANNA. THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IKE AT 03/0900 UTC IS NEAR 20.6N 49.6W MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST 16 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 996 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER MIATCPAT4/WTNT34 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. T.S IKE IS FORECAST TO REACH HURRICANE STATUS DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 19N TO 21N BETWEEN 49W AND 51W. OTHER SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE ELSEWHERE FROM 18N TO 23N BETWEEN 46W AND 52W. THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JOSEPHINE AT 03/0900 UTC IS NEAR 13.7N 27.5W MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST 11 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER MIATCPAT5/WTNT35 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 12N TO 15N BETWEEN 27W AND 30W. OTHER SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 11N TO 16N BETWEEN 26W AND 30W. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 65W/66W SOUTH OF 19N MOVING WEST 15 KT. THIS WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW MOVING AWAY FROM T.S. HANNA. NO DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION ACCOMPANIES JUST THIS WAVE. ...THE ITCZ... THE ITCZ HAS BEEN DISRUPTED BY THE TROPICAL CYCLONE ACTIVITY OF T.S. JOSEPHINE AND T.S. IKE. REMNANTS OF AN ITCZ ARE ALONG 10N34W 7N44W 12N57W. LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 9N TO 11N BETWEEN 15W AND 16W...FROM 12N TO 20N BETWEEN 19W AND 20W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE FROM 10N TO 16N BETWEEN 30W AND 42W...AND ELSEWHERE SOUTH OF 10N BETWEEN 40W AND 60W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE CARIBBEAN SEA WEST OF 80W... AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 22N90W. ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS SOUTH OF 25N TO HONDURAS IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. THE CLOUDS WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHERN NICARAGUA/HONDURAS TO THE WESTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA ARE BEING SHEARED BY THE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW FROM THE CENTER. THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA... THE BASE OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL 32N68W TO 20N74W TROUGH DIPS INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE NORTHWESTERN COAST OF JAMAICA. UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IS SOUTH OF JAMAICA NEAR 17N76W. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW FROM HANNA COVERS MUCH OF THE REST OF THE AREA EAST OF 80W. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N68W TO 28N71W 25N73W TO 20N74W JUST WEST OF TROPICAL STORM HANNA. THE SOUTHERNMOST POINT OF A COLD FRONT REACHES 31N61W. A SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES FROM 31N61W TO 27N65W. ALL PRECIPITATION THAT APPEARED TO ACCOMPANY THIS TROUGH HAS MOVED NORTHWARD OUT OF THE AREA. TROPICAL STORM IKE MAKES ITS WAY WESTWARD...SURROUNDED IMMEDIATELY BY CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION. IKE ULTIMATELY IS SURROUNDED BY MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IN SUBSIDENCE. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 32N14W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER TO 25N17W...CURVING TO 21N27W AND 16N30W AND 17N39W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM 32N33W TO 25N34W AND 22N35W IS DROPPING SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA THAT ALREADY IS BEING COVERED BY THE 32N14W 17N39W TROUGH. $$ MT