000 AXNT20 KNHC 022358 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT TUE SEP 02 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... TROPICAL DEPRESSION GUSTAV IS LOCATED NEAR 33.0N 93.9W AT 02/2100 UTC OR ABOUT 30 NM NORTH OF SHREVEPORT LOUISIANA MOVING N-NW NEAR 7 KT. THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH A GRADUAL TURN TOWARDS THE NORTH TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 19 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 993 MB. ISOLATED SHOWERS REMAIN ACROSS THE N/CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO N OF 28N BETWEEN GULFPORT MISSISSIPPI AND PORT ARTHUR TEXAS THIS EVENING. CONDITIONS IN THE NRN GULF ARE FORECAST TO IMPROVE AS THE DEPRESSION MOVES NORTHWARD AND A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF BY THU. TROPICAL STORM HANNA IS CENTERED NEAR 20.5N 72.4W AT 03/0000 UTC OR ABOUT 55 NM SOUTHEAST OF GREAT INAGUA ISLAND IN THE SERN BAHAMAS AND ABOUT 390 NM SOUTHEAST OF NASSAU DRIFTING TOWARD THE EAST. A NORTHWEST MOTION IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN EARLY WEDNESDAY AND MOVE HANNA OVER THE SE BAHAMAS TONIGHT AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS TOMORROW. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 988 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. HANNA IS PRODUCING NUMEROUS SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ACROSS THE N/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA...HISPANIOLA...PUERTO RICO AND THE SW ATLC WATERS FROM 15N-24N BETWEEN 65W-77W. HANNA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL TOTALS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES...OVER THE SE BAHAMAS...THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS...AND EASTERN CUBA. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES... WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 15 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE OVER HISPANIOLA WHERE THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING MUDSLIDES AND FLASH FLOODING. TROPICAL STORM IKE IS CENTERED NEAR 19.2N 46.3W AT 02/2100 UTC OR ABOUT 895 NM EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS MOVING W AT 15 KT. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 996 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND IKE COULD BECOME A HURRICANE ON WEDNESDAY. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. IKE IS STEERED BY A MID-LEVEL RIDGE THAT WILL MOVE WEST IN TANDEM WITH THE CYCLONE. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT IKE HAS AMPLE OUTFLOW AND A COMPACT...WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION WITH SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM OF THE CENTER IN ALL QUADRANTS. TROPICAL STORM JOSEPHINE IS CENTERED NEAR 13.7N 25.9W AT 02/2100 UTC OR ABOUT 105 NM SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS MOVING W-NW AT 12 KT. THIS GENERAL W-NW MOTION AT ABOUT THE SAME FORWARD SPEED IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. A LARGE AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE IS ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC AND WILL STEER JOSEPHINE TO PASS SOUTH OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS TONIGHT AND OVER THE WARM OPEN WATERS OF THE ERN TROPICAL ATLC ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND JOSEPHINE COULD BE NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH ON WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. SATELLITE IMAGERY REMAINS IMPRESSIVE WITH WELL-DEFINED OUTFLOW THIS EVENING. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-16N BETWEEN 24W-28W WITH OUTER RAINBANDS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE WRN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 62W S OF 19N MOVING W 15-20 KT. THIS WAVE IS GENERATING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES AND ERN CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 12N-17N BETWEEN 60W-64W. ...THE ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED ALONG 13N16W 13N20W 11N29W 10N60W. BESIDES CONVECTION MENTIONED IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION REGARDING THE TROPICAL SYSTEMS...A LARGE CLUSTER OF NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG THE WEST COAST OF AFRICA FROM 11N-17N BETWEEN 10W-18W. ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-10N BETWEEN 15W-19W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE IS POSITIONED ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO IN THE WAKE OF T.D. GUSTAV THAT IS INLAND OVER FAR NE TEXAS. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE STILL OBSERVED N OF 28N BETWEEN 89W-92W ACROSS THE FAR N/CENTRAL WATERS OF THE GULF. ALOFT...BROAD UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE ANCHORED ON AN UPPER HIGH LOCATED OVER THE S/CENTRAL GULF NEAR 22N88W DOMINATES THE ENTIRE AREA. UPPER DIFFLUENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS UPPER HIGH IS GENERATING A SMALL AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSTMS IN THE FAR ERN BAY OF CAMPECHE AND ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. ALSO MULTILAYERED CLOUDINESS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND ADJACENT COASTAL GULF WATERS THIS EVENING. STRONG TO MODERATE SUBSIDENCE/DRY AIR IS NOTED ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE GULF THIS EVENING. CARIBBEAN SEA... NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ASSOCIATED WITH T.S. HANNA ARE OVER HISPANIOLA...PUERTO RICO...THE MONA PASSAGE AND THE N/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA WATERS FROM 15N-20N BETWEEN 64W-77W. THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER HIGH CENTERED NEAR 22N88W EXTENDS AN UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN TO NRN COLOMBIA. A SECONDARY UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM NRN COLOMBIA TO THE NE CARIBBEAN AND OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. MULTILAYERED CLOUDINESS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN E OF 77W IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS OF HANNA AND THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 62W. ATLANTIC OCEAN... THREE TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE LOCATED IN THE DISCUSSION AREA...SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE FOR DETAILS. UPPER RIDGE CENTERED IN THE SE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS INTO THE WRN ATLC W OF 76W. BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING IS ACROSS THE WRN ATLC N OF 22N BETWEEN 55W-76W. OUTFLOW MID-UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE BEING DRAWN INTO THIS UPPER TROUGH AND COVER THE AREA FROM 22N-30N BETWEEN 62W-70W. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL HIGH CENTERED NEAR 30N43W EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS ALONG 43W SWD INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC REACHING 10N. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS SW ACROSS THE ERN ATLC FROM AN UPPER LEVEL LOW LOCATED NORTH OF THE CANARY ISLANDS NEAR 31N17W. UPPER-LEVEL ELY WINDS DOMINATE MOST OF THE DEEP TROPICS W OF 35W. AT THE SURFACE ...A 1026 MB HIGH SW OF THE AZORES NEAR 36N37W EXTENDS A RIDGE OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND ERN ATLC E OF 48W. $$ HUFFMAN