000 AXNT20 KNHC 021800 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT TUE SEP 02 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... TROPICAL DEPRESSION GUSTAV IS MOVING SLOWLY ACROSS NORTHWEST LOUISIANA. AT 02/1500... ITS CENTER IS NEAR 32.4N 93.6W...OR ABOUT 13 NM...25 KM...EAST SOUTHEAST OF SHREVEPORT LOUISIANA. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE N-NW AT 7 KT...13 KM/HR. THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH A GRADUAL TURN TOWARDS THE NORTH TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 22 KT...40 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 992 MB. STORM TOTAL RAINFALLS ARE EXPECTED TO BE FIVE TO TEN INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM OF FIFTEEN INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF LOUISIANA...ARKANSAS...AND MISSISSIPPI. FOUR TO SIX INCHES WITH A MAXIMUM OF EIGHT INCHES IS EXPECTED OVER MISSOURI AND WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS. THREE TO FIVE INCHES OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE OVER FAR NORTHEAST TEXAS AND FAR EASTERN OKLAHOMA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4-8 INCHES HAVE BEEN ALREADY REPORTED IN PARTS OF ALABAMA...MISSISSIPPI AND LOUISIANA. HURRICANE HANNA IS CENTERED NEAR 20.6N 72.9W AT 02/1800 UTC OR JUST SOUTHEAST OF GREAT INAGUA ISLAND IN THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND ABOUT 420 MILES...680 KM...SOUTHEAST OF NASSAU. HANNA HAS BEEN DRIFTING SOUTHEASTWARD TODAY. HOWEVER...A NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TONIGHT OR TOMORROW. HANNA WILL MOVE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS TONIGHT AND INTO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS TOMORROW. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 985 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. A SLOW MOTION TOWARD THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST IS EXPECTED TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST AND NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY. HANNA IS PRODUCING HEAVY RAINS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND HISPANIOLA. THIS TROPICAL CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL TOTALS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES...OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS...AND EASTERN CUBA. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 20 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE OVER HISPANIOLA WHERE THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING MUDSLIDES AND FLASH FLOODING. THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ISSUED ITS LAST ADVISORY ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION GUSTAV AT 02/0900 UTC. TROPICAL STORM IKE IS CENTERED NEAR 18.9N 45.0W AT 02/1500 UTC OR ABOUT 965 NM...1785 KM...EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS MOVING W AT 16 KT...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND IKE COULD BECOME A HURRICANE ON WEDNESDAY. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. IKE IS STEERED BY A MID-LEVEL HIGH THAT WILL MOVE WEST IN TANDEM WITH THE CYCLONE. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT IKE HAS A COMPACT AND WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION ALTHOUGH DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING HAS PRIMARILY BEEN LIMITED TO THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. TENTH TROPICAL DEPRESSION OF THE SEASON DEVELOPED OVER THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN EARLY THIS MORNING...AND SIX HOURS LATER WAS UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM JOSEPHINE. AT 02/1500 UTC...ITS CENTER IS NEAR 13.2N 25.3W OR ABOUT 110 NM...205 KM... SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS MOVING WEST AT 13 KT. A GENERAL W-NW MOTION AT ABOUT THE SAME FORWARD SPEED IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. JOSEPHINE WILL CONTINUE TO PASS JUST SOUTH OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS TODAY AND TONIGHT...AND OVER THE OPEN WATERS OF THE EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND JOSEPHINE COULD BE NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH ON WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. VISIBLE IMAGERY REVEALS AN INCREASE IN THE CYCLONE'S ORGANIZATION...WITH VERY WELL-DEFINED CONVECTIVE BANDS AND AN EYE-LIKE FEATURE. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 60W/61W S OF 20N MOVING W 15-20 KT. THIS SYSTEM IS PRODUCING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES AND THE SURROUNDING COASTAL WATERS. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROPICAL WAVE IS FORECAST BY THE COMPUTER MODEL TO MOVE MAINLY NWD. ...THE ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED ALONG 13N17W 10N30W 9N40W 10N50W 9N60W. BESIDES THE CONVECTION MENTIONED IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION REGARDING THE TROPICAL SYSTEMS...A LARGE CLUSTER OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS APPROACHING THE WEST COAST OF AFRICA...LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-10N EAST OF 17W TO THE AFRICAN COAST. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A WEAK RIDGE IS BUILDING ACROSS THE GULF IN THE HEELS OF T.D GUSTAV THAT IS INLAND OVER LOUISIANA. DOPPLER RADAR IS STILL SHOWING THE OVERALL CIRCULATION OF GUSTAV WITH WELL DEFINED RAINBANDS...THE STRONGEST ONES ARE TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER AFFECTING MISSISSIPPI AND SE LOUISIANA AS WELL AS THE FAR NORTH-CENTRAL WATERS OF THE GULF. SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED TSTMS ARE MOVING ACROSS THE STATE OF FLORIDA UNDER AN ELY WIND FLOW. ALOFT...BROAD UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE ANCHORED ON AN UPPER HIGH LOCATED OVER THE SE GULF NEAR 24N87W DOMINATES THE ENTIRE AREA. UPPER DIFFLUENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS UPPER HIGH IS HELPING TO INDUCE A SMALL AREA OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS NEAR 24N90W. CARIBBEAN SEA... MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH HANNA IS SEEN OVER HISPANIOLA AND REGIONAL COASTAL WATERS. NARROW RAINBANDS ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE STORM ARE MOVING OVER EASTERN CUBA. A SECOND CLUSTER OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED JUST SOUTH OF HAITI WITH SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY ALSO OVER JAMAICA AND THE SURROUNDING COASTAL WATERS. UPPER DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN THE UPPER HIGH OVER THE SE PORTION OF THE GULF OF MEXICO AND AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE W ATLC IS ENHANCING ALL THIS ACTIVITY. A TROPICAL WAVE IS GENERATING SCATTRED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES. UNUSUAL WEST WINDS ARE NOTED OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA DUE TO THE LARGE CIRCULATION OF HANNA. ATLANTIC OCEAN... THREE TROPICAL STORMS ARE OVER THE FORECAST AREA...FROM EAST TO WEST...JOSEPHINE...IKE AND HANNA. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE FOR DETAILS. UPPER RIDGE CENTERED IN THE SE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS INTO THE W ATLC W OF 73W. BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING IS ACROSS THE W ATLC N OF 24N BETWEEN 60W-73W. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL HIGH CENTERED NEAR 29N40W EXTENDS A RIDGE SWD INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC REACHING 10N. AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS SW ACROSS THE E ATLC FROM AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW LOCATED NEAR B29N18W. UPPER-LEVEL ELY WINDS DOMINATES MOST OF THE DEEP TROPICS. AT THE SURFACE...A 1026 MB HIGH IS SW OF THE AZORES NEAR 35N35W EXTENDING A RIDGE OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND ERN ATLC. $$ GR