000 AXNT20 KNHC 021206 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT TUE SEP 02 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... TROPICAL STORM GUSTAV HAS WEAKENED INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION GUSTAV AT 02/0900 UTC IS NEAR 31.3N 93.0W...OR ABOUT 30 MILES/50 KM WEST OF ALEXANDRIA LOUISIANA. GUSTAV IS MOVING NORTHWEST 11 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 978 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER MIATCPAT2/ WTNT32 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ALL THE STRONG PRECIPITATION IS OVER LAND FROM LOUISIANA TO ARKANSAS BETWEEN WESTERN ALABAMA AND EAST TEXAS. THE CENTER OF HURRICANE HANNA AT 02/1200 UTC IS NEAR 21.2N 73.1W WEST OR VERY NEAR GREAT INAGUA ISLAND AND ABOUT 335 MILES...615 KM...SOUTHEAST OF NASSAU. HANNA IS DRIFTING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 2 KT...4 KM/HR. SLOW AND ERRATIC MOTION IS EXPECTED TODAY. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 978 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT. PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 19N TO 21N BETWEEN 71W AND 74W TO THE NORTH OF HISPANIOLA...AND ON TOP OF SOUTHWESTERN HAITI FROM 17N TO 18N BETWEEN 73.5W AND 74.5W. MODERATE TO STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN WESTERN JAMAICA. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND OTHER POSSIBLE LINGERING PRECIPITATION COVER THE ENTIRE AREA FROM 16N TO 24N BETWEEN 64W AND 80W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE JUST OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF PUERTO RICO. THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IKE AT 02/0900 UTC IS NEAR 18.0N 41.6W. IKE IS MOVING WEST 12 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER MIATCPAT4/WTNT34 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. T.S IKE IS FORECAST TO REACH HURRICANE STATUS DURING THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES OVER WARM OCEAN WATERS IN A LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THAT IS FORECAST BY THE COMPUTER MODELS TO EXPAND WESTWARD WILL STEER THIS TROPICAL CYCLONE TOWARD THE WEST FOR THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 17N TO 20N BETWEEN 42W AND 43W. OTHER SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 17N44W 20N48W 23N49W. TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN HAS DEVELOPED WHERE THE 13N22W/1008 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER WAS SIX HOURS EARLIER. THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN AT 02/0900 UTC IS NEAR 12.3N 23.2W. TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN IS MOVING WEST 14 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER MIATCPAT5/WTNT35 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 12N TO 16N BETWEEN 23W AND 27W. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 59W/60W SOUTH OF 20N MOVING WEST 15 KT. ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 13N TO 14N BETWEEN 59W AND 60W. THE PRECIPITATION THAT HAD BEEN OCCURRING NEAR THERE HAD WEAKENED AND IT HAS DEVELOPED AGAIN. ...THE ITCZ... 15N17W 11N25W 8N37W 10N50W 9N56W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 6N TO 10N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 30W...AND FROM 10N TO 17N BETWEEN 30W AND 40W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS NORTH OF 26N WITH T.S. GUSTAV. AN INVERTED MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STRETCHES FROM 27N83W IN THE EASTERN SECTION TO 22N90W JUST NORTH OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW FROM HURRICANE HANNA MOVES FROM 60W ALL THE WAY TO 80W AND INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. A BROAD AREA OF UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW WITH A BROAD INVERTED TROUGH SPREADS FROM 80W SOUTH OF 16N ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN SUPPORTS A SURFACE TROUGH FROM 32N51W TO 25N57W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE NORTH OF 24N BETWEEN 50W AND 53W. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N60W TO 31N70W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE NORTH OF 29N BETWEEN 59W AND 75W. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 30N18W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER TO 23N20W 20N30W. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA NORTH OF 24N BETWEEN 30W AND 50W. $$ MT