000 AXNT20 KNHC 020624 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT TUE SEP 02 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0345 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... HURRICANE GUSTAV HAS WEAKENED TO TROPICAL STORM GUSTAV. THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GUSTAV AT 02/0600 UTC IS NEAR 31.3N 93.0W...OR ABOUT 30 MILES/50 KM WEST OF ALEXANDRIA LOUISIANA. GUSTAV IS MOVING NORTHWEST 11 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 978 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER MIATCPAT2/ WTNT32 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ALL THE STRONG PRECIPITATION IS OVER LAND FROM LOUISIANA TO ARKANSAS BETWEEN WESTERN ALABAMA AND EAST TEXAS. THE CENTER OF HURRICANE HANNA AT 02/0600 UTC IS NEAR 21.3N 72.6W OR ABOUT 50 MILES/85 KM EAST-NORTHEAST OF GREAT INAGUA ISLAND... AND ABOUT 400 MILES/645 KM SOUTHEAST OF NASSAU. HANNA HAS MOVED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD 8 MPH/13 KM/HR. A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY...POSSIBLY ACCOMPANIED BY A LOOPING MOTION. A SLOW NORTHWESTWARD MOTION TOWARD THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS IS EXPECTED BEGIN BY WEDNESDAY. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 978 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT. PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 19.5N TO 22N BETWEEN 68W AND 71W TO THE NORTH OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC... FROM 21N TO 22N BETWEEN 70W AND 74W IN THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS AND JUST OFF THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF GREAT INAGUA...AND IN HAITI FROM 18N TO 19N BETWEEN 72W AND 74W. SCATTERED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE WATERS FROM JAMAICA TO CUBA BETWEEN HAITI AND 79W. STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE AT THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...AND ABOUT 45 NM SOUTH OF THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF PUERTO RICO. THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IKE AT 02/0300 UTC IS NEAR 18.0N 41.6W. IKE IS MOVING WEST 12 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER MIATCPAT4/WTNT34 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. T.S IKE IS FORECAST TO REACH HURRICANE STATUS DURING THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES OVER WARM OCEAN WATERS IN A LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THAT IS FORECAST BY THE COMPUTER MODELS TO EXPAND WESTWARD WILL STEER THIS TROPICAL CYCLONE IN TOWARD THE WEST FOR THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 17N TO 19N BETWEEN 41W AND 42W. A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 22W SOUTH MOVING WEST 15 KT. A 1008 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 13N ALONG THE WAVE. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THIS FEATURE MAY BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 23W AND 25W. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 57W/59W FROM 12N TO 19N MOVING WEST 15 TO 20 KT. WARMING CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES AND WEAKENING PRECIPITATION FROM 13N TO 15N BETWEEN 59W AND 61W. ...THE ITCZ... 15N17W 11N25W 8N37W 10N50W 9N56W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 6N TO 10N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 30W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 11N TO 14N BETWEEN 31W AND 38W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS NORTH OF 26N WITH T.S. GUSTAV. AN INVERTED MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STRETCHES FROM 27N83W IN THE EASTERN SECTION TO 22N90W JUST NORTH OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALONG 90W FROM CENTRAL GUATEMALA TO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...SOME OF IT POSSIBLY WITH THE EASTERN GULF INVERTED TROUGH...AND SOME OF IT POSSIBLY WITH THE BROAD INVERTED TROUGH MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW FROM HURRICANE HANNA MOVES FROM 60W ALL THE WAY TO 80W AND INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. A BROAD AREA OF UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW WITH A BROAD INVERTED TROUGH SPREADS FROM 80W SOUTH OF 16N ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE FROM CENTRAL NICARAGUA TO NORTHWESTERN HONDURAS AND CENTRAL GUATEMALA. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN SUPPORTS A 1011 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 32N52W. A SURFACE TROUGH RUNS FROM THE LOW CENTER TO 24N53W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NORTH OF 24N BETWEEN 50W AND 52W. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 33N60W TO 31N70W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE NORTH OF 29N BETWEEN 59W AND 73W. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 30N18W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER TO 23N20W 20N30W. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA NORTH OF 24N BETWEEN 30W AND 50W. $$ MT