000 AXNT20 KNHC 281122 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION... NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... TROPICAL STORM GUSTAV IS CENTERED NEAR 17.8N 75.6W AT 28/1130 UTC OR ABOUT 70 NM EAST OF KINGSTON JAMAICA AND ABOUT 148 NM SOUTH OF GUANTANAMO CUBA MOVING WEST-SOUTHWEST AT 5 KT. LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE JUST REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE IS 988 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC AND/OR THE PUBLIC ADVISORY MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. GUSTAV IS EXPECTED TO TURN TO THE WEST LATER TODAY AND TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST ON FRI PASSING VERY CLOSE TO JAMAICA LATER TODAY. RESTRENGTHENING IS FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND GUSTAV COULD REGAIN HURRICANE STRENGTH BY FRI. SCATTERED/NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 15N-19N BETWEEN 73W-77W WITH SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM OF LINE FROM 16N76W TO 15N80W INCLUDING THE SW TIP OF HAITI AND THE E TIP OF JAMAICA. GUSTAV IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES OVER SOUTHERN CUBA...AND 6 TO 12 INCHES OVER HAITI...JAMAICA...AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 25 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. THE 1008 MB SURFACE LOW ENE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS WAS UPGRADED TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT AT 28/0900 UTC. T.D. EIGHT IS CENTERED NEAR 19.8N 57.9W AT 28/0900 UTC OR ABOUT 308 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 4 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC AND/OR THE PUBLIC ADVISORY MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. T.D. EIGHT IS EXPECTED TO TURN TO THE NORTHWEST LATER TODAY PASSING WELL NORTH OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SCATTERED MODERATE/ STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM OF LINE FROM 17N60W 19N57W TO 21N57W. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 36W S OF 21N WITH A 1009 MB LOW ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 16N MOVING W 10-15 KT. BROAD AREA OF DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE EVIDENT ON MIMIC-TPW ANIMATION AND A BROAD INVERTED-V CURVATURE OBSERVED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE N OF THE LOW CENTER FROM 17N-21N BETWEEN 32W-40W. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 51W/52W S OF 13N MOVING W NEAR 20 KT. LOW AMPLITUDE AND REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN SOME RATHER DRY AIR...THUS NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION. WAVE REMAINS IN THE AREA OF T.D. EIGHT AND DOES NOT APPEAR AS WELL DEFINED AS 24 HOURS AGO. ...THE ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED ALONG 12N15W 14N25W 14N26W PEAKING NEAR THE 1009 MB LOW ALONG THE TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 36W CONTINUING ALONG 7N47W 8N60W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 60/75 NM OF LINE FROM 14N20W 9N18W TO THE COAST OF W AFRICA NEAR 8N13W AND FROM 13N-17N BETWEEN 25W-30W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE E US ENTERING THE GULF NEAR MISSISSIPPI/LOUISIANA BORDER SW TO OFF THE MEXICAN COAST NEAR 22N95W WITH AN UPPER HIGH REMAINING ANCHORED IN THE FLORIDA STRAITS NEAR 24N80W COVERING THE E GULF ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA INTO THE W ATLC. AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM S MEXICO NEAR THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC NE TO OVER THE NE YUCATAN PENINSULA PROVIDING UPPER DIFFLUENCE TO GENERATE SCATTERED/ NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE S OF 20.5N TO INLAND OVER S MEXICO BETWEEN 93W-96W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE S OF 25N W OF 90W. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK 1014 MB HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 27N88W AND IS KEEPING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE MAIN CONCERN AGAIN THIS MORNING FOR THE CARIBBEAN IS T.S. GUSTAV BETWEEN HAITI AND CUBA...SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. AN UPPER HIGH CENTERED OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS COVERS THE NW CARIBBEAN N OF 17N W OF 78W PROVIDING UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 120 NM OF LINE FROM 17N80W TO 21N86W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ACROSS THE E CARIBBEAN ALONG 15N BETWEEN 67W TO OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE S CARIBBEAN FROM INLAND TO WITHIN 75/90 NM ALONG THE COAST FROM THE GULF OF VENEZUELA TO 79W IN PANAMA. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A NEW CONCERN IN THE W TROPICAL ATLC IS T.D. EIGHT NE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. AN UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE FLORIDA STRAITS NEAR 24N80W COVERS THE W ATLC W OF 75W. A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS OVER THE NW ATLC DIPPING S TO 29N WITH THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAINLY N OF THE REGION DIPPING JUST S OF BERMUDA. A CUT-OFF UPPER LOW IS N OF PUERTO RICO NEAR 22N65W GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM 22N TO OVER THE E GREATER ANTILLES BETWEEN 63W-70W INCLUDING PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. AN UPPER RIDGE THAT DEVELOPED OVER T.D. EIGHT IS PROVIDING GOOD OUTFLOW MAINLY TO THE N AND E OF THE SYSTEM. A SECOND WEAKENING UPPER LOW IS OVER THE N/CENTRAL ATLC CENTERED NEAR 32N43W EXTENDING S TO 27N. AN E/W UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE E ATLC ALONG 25N TO 40W. BROAD SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE ATLC N OF 25N E OF 50W ANCHORED BY A 1028 MB HIGH N OF THE AZORES. $$ WALLACE