000 AXNT20 KNHC 271805 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM AT 27/1800 UTC IS NEAR 18.8N 74.4W...OR ABOUT 140 MILES/225 KM WEST OF PORT-AU-PRINCE HAITI AND ABOUT 90 MILES/145 KM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF GUANTANAMO CUBA. GUSTAV IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST 4 KT. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB. PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC AND/OR THE PUBLIC ADVISORY MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 17N TO 19N BETWEEN 72W AND 76W. THIS COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA WATERS AND PRETTY MUCH ALL OF HAITI. A SECOND AREA OF STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS OVER THE WATER FROM 16N TO 18N BETWEEN 75W AND 77W TO THE SOUTHEAST OF JAMAICA. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 32W/33W SOUTH OF 21N MOVING WEST 15 KT. THIS WAVE AND THE 46W/47W WAVE HAVE BEEN MOVING THROUGH A BROAD AREA OF A MONSOONAL TROUGH EXTENDING TO THE SOUTHWEST FROM THE WEST COAST OF AFRICA FROM 10N TO 20N. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 14N TO 20N BETWEEN 30W AND 40W. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MONSOONAL TROUGH ARE WITHIN 15 NM TO 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 12N BETWEEN 29W AND 31W...FROM 13N TO 14N BETWEEN 26W AND 27W...AND FROM 15N TO 16N BETWEEN 26W AND 27W. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 46W/47W SOUTH OF 17N MOVING WEST 15 KT. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP LAYER CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION. A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 79W/80W SOUTH OF 13N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. THIS WAVE IS FAR AWAY FROM GUSTAV. A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 95W SOUTH OF 20N...FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...ACROSS THE WESTERN ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. IT IS MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. A MIDDLE LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS MEXICO BETWEEN THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC AND 90W. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS ON TOP OF THIS AREA AT THE SAME TIME. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 14N TO THE COAST INCLUDING IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC BETWEEN 94W AND 97W. ...THE ITCZ... 18N16W 17N22W 9N40W 8N60W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 11N TO 20N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 23W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE FROM 4N TO 10N BETWEEN 30W AND 55W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH CENTRAL GEORGIA TO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO TO THE WEST CENTRAL GULF WATERS ABOUT 150 NM SOUTHEAST OF THE LOWER TEXAS COAST. THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO A COMPARATIVELY MUCH WEAKER EXTENT TO THE MEXICO GULF COAST ALONG 20N. A SURFACE TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR 85W TO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF WATERS NEAR 28N90W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE NORTH OF 28N BETWEEN THE FLORIDA WEST COAST ALONG 83W AND 94W. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALONG THE MEXICO GULF COAST FROM 21N TO 23N BETWEEN 97W AND THE COASTLINE. OTHER ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE FROM 22N TO 27N BETWEEN FLORIDA AND 97W. ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AT THE SURFACE AND AT THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE COVER THE REST OF THE AREA. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... TROPICAL STORM GUSTAV HAS ENTERED WATER AGAIN ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE PENINSULA OF SOUTHERN HAITI. AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 23N83W JUST OFF THE NORTHWESTERN TIP OF CUBA...ACCOUNTING FOR ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IN THE EAST AND SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...AND FOR THE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW TO THE WEST OF T.S. GUSTAV. THE BASE OF AN ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA DEEP LAYER TROUGH REACHES PUERTO RICO. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 27N62W 23N65W 19N66W. THE CYCLONIC CENTER WITH THIS TROUGH ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS NEAR 22N65W. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE WITHIN 60 NM TO THE NORTH OF PUERTO RICO AND POSSIBLY REACHING THE NORTHERN COASTAL SECTIONS OF THE ISLAND FROM 26/2315 UTC UNTIL 27/0315 UTC. THAT PRECIPITATION DISSIPATED. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED DURING THE LAST FEW HOURS IN THE INTERIOR OF PUERTO RICO FROM 67W EASTWARD. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE FROM 19N TO 25N BETWEEN 62W AND 70W. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A DEEP LAYER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 22N65W TO PUERTO RICO. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 27N62W 23N65W 19N66W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE FROM 19N TO 25N BETWEEN 62W AND 70W. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ABOUT 630 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE 22N65W WATER VAPOR CYCLONIC CENTER. A 1011 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 20N57W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS/ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60 NM TO 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 15N60W 20N55W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE LINGERING PRECIPITATION FROM 20N TO 23N BETWEEN 50W AND 58W. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS ALONG 33N77W 30N75W. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM 31N TO 33N BETWEEN 76W AND 77W. A LONGWAVE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 34N68W TO 29N68W. A SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS NORTH OF THE AREA. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE FROM 30N TO 33N BETWEEN 60W AND 70W. BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA NORTH OF 23N BETWEEN 40W AND 60W. ONE CYCLONIC CENTER IS NEAR 30N44W AND A SECOND CENTER IS NEAR 28N53W. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 18N40W 14N41W 12N43W 6N52W. $$ MT