000 AXNT20 KNHC 261039 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION... NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT TUE AUG 26 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... TROPICAL STORM GUSTAV WAS UPGRADED TO HURRICANE AT 26/0900 UTC BASED ON OBSERVATIONS FROM AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT. GUSTAV IS CENTERED NEAR 17.2N 71.9W AT 26/0900 UTC OR ABOUT 87 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI AND ABOUT 260 NM SOUTHEAST OF GUANTANAMO CUBA MOVING NORTHWEST AT 8 KT. LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AS REPORTED FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS 984 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED HAS INCREASED TO 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT MAKING GUSTAV IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC AND/OR THE PUBLIC ADVISORY MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. SCATTERED MODERATE/ STRONG CONVECTION COVERS THE AREA FROM 15N-18N BETWEEN 70W-74W WITH CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DOTTING THE AREA FROM THE COAST OF VENEZUELA AND COLOMBIA TO OVER HISPANIOLA BETWEEN 67W-74W. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A 1008 MB LOW IS OVER THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS NEAR 15.5N24W MOVING WSW NEAR 10 KT. THIS LOW IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD AREA OF DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE WITH ANY DEEP CONVECTION WELL REMOVED FROM THE LOW. A 1009 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 12N34W HAS REMAINED NEAR STATIONARY FOR THE PAST 24 HOURS. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90/120 NM OF THE LOW. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 38W S OF 16N MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. TYPICAL INVERTED-V CURVATURE IS OBSERVED IN THE LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. ANY DEEP CONVECTION IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ. TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE E/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN IS ALONG 71W S OF 12N MOVING W NEAR 20 KT. WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE BUT IS MOSTLY INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA...THUS NO ASSOCIATED SHOWERS OVER THE CARIBBEAN WATERS. TROPICAL WAVE IN THE W CARIBBEAN IS ALONG 86W/87W S OF 20N MOVING W NEAR 20 KT. THIS WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN SOME DRIER AIR...THUS ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS S OF 19N W OF 85W TO INLAND OVER CENTRAL ALMERIA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. ...THE ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED ALONG 16N15W 13N25W 9N34W 7N52W 9N62W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 75 NM OF LINE FROM 12N24W ACROSS THE ITCZ TO 14N29W WITH CLUSTERS OF SIMILAR CONVECTION FROM 5N-9N BETWEEN 32W-47W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 120/150 NM OF THE ITCZ FROM 27W-32W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... T.D. FAY REMAINS INLAND OVER CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA MOVING NE WITH A SURFACE TROUGH TRAILING INTO THE GULF WATERS NEAR MOBILE ALABAMA SW TO 28N92W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 28N BETWEEN 86W-95W. SMALL UPPER LOW IS CENTERED OFF THE TEXAS COAST NEAR 28N94W COVERING THE NW GULF AND AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING E ACROSS MEXICO ALONG 21N OVER THE SW GULF PROVIDING UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM TUXPAN TO LAGUNA MADRE W OF 96W. AN UPPER HIGH REMAINS ANCHORED IN THE FLORIDA STRAITS NEAR 24N812W COVERING THE E GULF. THIS SCENARIO IS KEEPING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF TRANQUIL AGAIN THIS MORNING. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE MAIN CONCERN TODAY FOR THE CARIBBEAN IS HURRICANE GUSTAV IN THE N/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. UPPER OUTFLOW IS BECOMING A LITTLE MORE ORGANIZED WITH MAINLY EASTERLY UPPER FLOW OVER THE CARIBBEAN E OF 75W. AN UPPER RIDGE IS ANCHORED IN THE FLORIDA STRAITS GIVING THE W CARIBBEAN E TO SE UPPER FLOW. THE ITCZ AXIS CROSSES THE EXTREME S CARIBBEAN GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 12N W OF 74W TO INLAND OVER COLOMBIA THROUGH COSTA RICA. DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE DOMINATES THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN. HOWEVER...OTHER THAN THE ACTIVITY NOTED ABOVE AND THAT ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 86W/87W...THE SKIES REMAIN RATHER CLEAR THIS MORNING OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE FAR W ATLC W OF 73W ANCHORED IN THE FLORIDA STRAITS NEAR 24N81W. BROAD UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC COVERING THE AREA FROM 60W-72W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS JUST TO THE E OF THE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING ALONG 31N59W TO 22N65W GENERATING SCATTERED/NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 175 NM W OF THE SURFACE TROUGH BETWEEN 24N-28N. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 21N-30N BETWEEN 60W-67W. SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 18N-22N BETWEEN 63W-71W INCLUDING PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. AN UPPER RIDGE IS ANCHORED IN THE S/CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 19N61W. A WEAK 1011 MB SURFACE LOW IS BENEATH THIS UPPER RIDGE NEAR 19N54W WITH THE UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ENHANCING SCATTERED MODERATE/ ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 19N-22N BETWEEN 53W-56W. A SECOND BUT BENIGN UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE E/CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDING THROUGH 32N32W ALONG 23N35W INTO THE TROPICS TO 12N44W AND A SECOND UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE E ATLC ANCHORED JUST S OF THE CANARY ISLANDS. BROAD SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE ATLC N OF 25N E OF 75W ANCHORED BY A SERIES OF HIGHS N OF THE REGION AND A WEAKNESS NEAR THE SURFACE TROUGH. $$ WALLACE