000 AXNT20 KNHC 260005 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT MON AUG 25 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... TROPICAL STORM GUSTAV AT 25/2100 UTC IS IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN NEAR 16.3N 71.0W OR ABOUT 180 MILES...290 KM... SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI. GUSTAV IS MOVING NORTHWEST 12 KT. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 996 MB. PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC AND/OR THE PUBLIC ADVISORY MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. GUSTAV IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 7 INCHES OVER HISPANIOLA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 TO 25 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE INTENSE RAINS MAY PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. PRESENTLY MOST CONVECTION IS N OF THE CENTER. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA FROM 15N-21N BETWEEN 65W-74W. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A 1008 MB LOW IS OFF THE COAST OF W AFRICA NEAR 15N23W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS MOSTLY S OF THE LOW CENTER FROM 10N-15N BETWEEN 21W-28W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 34W S OF 19N MOVING W AT 15 KT. A 1009 MB LOW IS EMBEDDED ON THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 12N33W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM RADIUS OF THE LOW CENTER. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS W OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 6N-10N BETWEEN 35W-40W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN ALONG 67W SOUTH OF 14N MOVING WEST 10-15 KT. THIS WAVE IS VERY CLOSE TO T.S. GUSTAV AND IS NOW HARD TO TRACK. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED. A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 82W SOUTH OF 20N MOVING WEST 10-15 KT. SOME LOW CLOUD TURNING IS NOTED OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN S OF W CUBA. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM 16N-20N BETWEEN 81W-85W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER PANAMA AND COSTA RICA FROM 7N-10N BETWEEN 77W-84W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA FROM 10N-17N BETWEEN 84W-90W. ...THE ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 18N16W 9N40W 9N50W 12N62W. BESIDES THE CONVECTION MENTIONED ON THE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION... ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-9N BETWEEN 28W-30W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... WEAK SURFACE RIDGING IS STARTING TO BUILD IN OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. T.D.FAY IS NOW INLAND OVER CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI MOVING ENE AT 5 KT WITH 22 KT WINDS AND HIGHER GUSTS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB. CONVECTION IS MOSTLY E OF THE CENTER AND INLAND FROM FLORIDA TO TENNESSEE. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER NE MEXICO AND THE NW GULF OF MEXICO FROM 21N-25N BETWEEN 96W-101W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM 19N-22N BETWEEN 87W-89W...AND OVER W CUBA FROM 22N-24N BETWEEN 82W-84W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER TEXAS NEAR 29N96W. CYCLONIC FLOW EXTENDS E TO THE W GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 90W. A STRONG MID TO UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER W CUBA NEAR 22N84W THAT WILL AFFECT THE TRACK OF T.S. GUSTAV. EXPECT MORE CONVECTION OVER SE TEXAS...THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...AND FLORIDA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... T.S. GUSTAV IS THE MAIN FEATURE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA PRODUCING A GOOD AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION. SEE ABOVE. GUSTAV IS ALSO FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE IN 24 HOURS. TWO TROPICAL WAVES ARE ALSO OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA. SEE ABOVE. OTHER THAN THE PRECIPITATION ALREADY MENTIONED...ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER N COLOMBIA FROM 8N-11N BETWEEN 72W-77W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH OVER W CUBA...AND UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW OVER GUSTAV ARE THE MAIN FEATURES. EXPECT LITTLE UPPER LEVEL CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA. ALSO EXPECT CONTINUED CONVECTION OVER THE CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE NRN BAHAMAS FROM 23N-25N BETWEEN 77W-79W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS N OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS FROM 29N59W TO 20N66W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 25N-30N BETWEEN 56W-63W. A NEW SURFACE LOW IS DEVELOPING E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 19N53W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 16N-20N BETWEEN 50W-55W. FURTHER SOUTH...THE ITCZ AND TROPICAL WAVES ARE THE MAIN WEATHER PRODUCERS IN THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... RIDGING IS N OF 20N AND W OF 70W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 27N65W. DIFFLUENCE E OF THE CENTER IS AIDING IN THE CONVECTION FROM 25N-30N BETWEEN 56W-63W. AN UPPER HIGH IS FURTHER E OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 19N52W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 16N36W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 31N32W. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS ALSO NEAR THE CANARY ISLANDS AT 26N14W. EXPECT CONTINUED PRECIPITATION ON ALL MENTIONED FEATURES FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. $$ FORMOSA