000 AXNT20 KNHC 251830 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT MON AUG 25 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1745 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN DEVELOPED IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AT 25/1500 UTC NEAR 15.5N 70.1W. THE CYCLONE IS BEING UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM GUSTAV AT 25/1800 UTC. THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GUSTAV AT 25/1800 UTC IS NEAR 15.8N 70.5W... OR ABOUT 225 MILES/365 KM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI. GUSTAV IS MOVING NORTHWEST 12 KT. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 996 MB. PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC AND/OR THE PUBLIC ADVISORY MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 15N TO THE SOUTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BETWEEN 67W AND 72W. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 79W SOUTH OF 20N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. NO ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION ACCOMPANIES THIS WAVE. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE EAST OF THE WAVE FROM 13N TO 15N BETWEEN 77W AND 80W. A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 64W/65W SOUTH OF 20N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 14N TO 20N BETWEEN 61W AND 66W. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 17N31W TO A 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 12N34W TO 10N36W MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. WARMING CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES AND DISSIPATING CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION FROM 10N TO 14N BETWEEN 30W AND 36W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 7N TO 10N BETWEEN 32W AND 40W. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH BROAD LOW PRESSURE/THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE TO LEAVE FROM AFRICA...ROUGHLY ALONG 21W/22W SOUTH OF 20N. THE STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 12N TO 13.5N BETWEEN 21W AND 27.5W. ...THE ITCZ... 12N17W 8N30W 8N60W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE SOUTH OF 11N BETWEEN 50W AND 61W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... TROPICAL DEPRESSION FAY IS IN SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI NEAR 32.3N 89.4W...OR ABOUT 50 MILES/85 KM EAST OF JACKSON MISSISSIPPI... AND 165 MILES/265 KM NORTH OF NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA. FAY IS MOVING NORTHWEST 3 MPH. THE FORECAST TRACK INDICATES THAT THE CENTER OF FAY WILL BE CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY TO THE NORTH THEN NORTHEAST...AND INTO NORTHWEST ALABAMA...SOUTHERN TENNESSEE ON TUESDAY. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE NEAR 25 MPH/ 40 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS STILL ARE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO NORTH OF 25N BETWEEN THE FLORIDA WEST COAST AND 92W. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS ALONG THE SOUTH TEXAS COAST NEAR 27N97W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 21N IN MEXICO TO 27N IN SOUTH TEXAS BETWEEN 96W AND 100W. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN HAS BECOME TROPICAL STORM GUSTAV. DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION WITH GUSTAV COVERS THE AREA FROM 15N TO THE SOUTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BETWEEN 67W AND 72W. AN INVERTED MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS SOUTH OF 17N ALONG 83W AT THE COAST/EASTERN SECTIONS OF NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE FROM 11N TO 17N BETWEEN 82W AND 86W...AND FROM 17N TO 20N BETWEEN 80W AND 83W. A SECOND MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH IS ALONG 59W/60W SOUTH OF 14N MOVING WESTWARD. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE FROM 12N TO 15N BETWEEN 58W AND 61W. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 33N67W TO A 27N67W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 20N69W. A FIRST SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 29N58W 22N62W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60 NM TO 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 29N58W 26N61W 23N66W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS COVER PARTS OF THE BAHAMAS ISLANDS FROM 23N BEYOND BETWEEN 76W AND 80W ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 17N53W 20N53W 22N56W. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 18N TO 20N BETWEEN 51W AND 52W...AND FROM 21N TO 23N BETWEEN 58W AND 60W. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 18N TO 22N BETWEEN 53W AND 55W. A SEPARATE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 30N47W. CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THIS CENTER COVERS THE AREA WITHIN 120 NM TO 180 NM OF THE CENTER. AN EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 31N35W. A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE CYCLONIC CENTER TO 21N36W TO 17N40W AND 10N48W. $$ MT