000 AXNT20 KNHC 250525 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT MON AUG 25 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0345 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE SE CARIBBEAN WITH A 1009 MB LOW ANALYZED NEAR 13N67W MOVING WNW AT 10-15 KT. ALTHOUGH THE SYSTEM IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS...CONVENTIONAL AND REMOTELY-SENSED SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW THAT THE SYSTEM DOES NOT HAVE A WELL-DEFINED SURFACE CIRCULATION AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS SYSTEM COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION MON OR TUE. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM ON MON...IF NECESSARY. SCATTERED/NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM FROM THE CENTER IN THE NW QUADRANT. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE OVER THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 71W INCLUDING THE LESSER ANTILLES AND PUERTO RICO. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A 1009 MB LOW WAS ADDED AT 25/0000 UTC NE OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS NEAR 17N22W. THIS LOW IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD AREA OF DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE WITH BROAD MID LEVEL TURNING. NO ASSOCIATED SHOWERS/CONVECTION. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 32W/33W S OF 19N WITH A 1009 MB LOW ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 12N MOVING W 15-20 KT. SMALL CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 11N-14N BETWEEN 31W-35W. TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE CENTRAL/W TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDING FROM 27N56W THROUGH A 1012 MB LOW NEAR 23N58W CONTINUING S ACROSS BARBADOS TO 7N59W MOVING NW 15-20 KT. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE NEAR THE LOW FROM 23N-26N BETWEEN 55W-59W AND FROM 11N-15N W OF 58W TO OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES. ...THE ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED ALONG 19N16W 13N29W 7N45W 12N62W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 8N-10N BETWEEN 34W-37W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 9N-13N BETWEEN THE COAST OF W AFRICA TO 23W. CLUSTERS OF SIMILAR CONVECTION ARE FROM 13N-17N BETWEEN 17W-21W...FROM 7N-10N BETWEEN 27W-34W...AND WITHIN 120 NM OF THE ITCZ FROM 41W-55W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... T.D.FAY REMAINS INLAND OVER S MISSISSIPPI BUT IS GENERATING HEAVY SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE GULF WATERS N OF 28N FROM THE FLORIDA/ALABAMA BORDER TO VERMILION BAY LOUISIANA. AN UPPER LOW IS CENTERED OVER CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI COVERING THE N/CENTRAL GULF WITH AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING W/E ACROSS MEXICO OVER THE W GULF. AN UPPER HIGH IS ANCHORED IN THE FLORIDA STRAITS COVERING THE SE GULF. THIS SCENARIO IS KEEPING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF MOSTLY QUIET TONIGHT WITH SOME HIGH THIN CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS DOTTING THE AREA. CARIBBEAN SEA... A MID/UPPER LOW IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN NEAR 14N67W AND IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE. OTHERWISE...THE CARIBBEAN IS DOMINATED BY EASTERLY UPPER FLOW. DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE COVERS ALL BUT THE NW CARIBBEAN AS INDICATED BY MIMIC-TPW ANIMATION. THUS...THE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES AS WELL AS CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DOTTING THE AREA W OF 82W. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS MOVING OFF W CUBA INTO THE CARIBBEAN WATERS N OF 21N BETWEEN 81W-85W. ATLANTIC OCEAN... BROAD UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLC ANCHORED N OF THE REGION COVERING THE AREA FROM 60W-80W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 26N-31N BETWEEN 66W-72W WITH ISOLATED CLUSTERS OF SIMILAR ACTIVITY FROM OVER THE BAHAMA ISLANDS TO THE COAST OF CUBA BETWEEN 74W-79W. AN UPPER RIDGE IS ANCHORED IN THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 22N52W WITH A SECOND UPPER TROUGH OVER THE E ATLC ANCHORED NEAR 29N33W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE CENTRAL ATLC FROM 16N-25N BETWEEN 49W-55W. A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE ATLC N OF 25N E OF 70W ANCHORED BY A SERIES OF HIGHS N OF THE REGION. $$ WALLACE