000 AXNT20 KNHC 240552 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT SUN AUG 24 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... FAY WAS DOWNGRADED TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AT 24/0300 UTC AND THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY WAS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM AT THAT TIME. HOWEVER...HEAVY RAINS AND FLOODING ASSOCIATED WITH FAY COULD CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL DAYS. T.D. FAY IS CENTERED NEAR 30.9N 87.1W AT 24/0300 UTC MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 7 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 999 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. THIS SLOW-MOVING SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO POSE A SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL AND FLOODING HAZARD FOR SEVERAL DAYS TO COME...ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST AND ADJACENT AREAS WELL INLAND. FAY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES ACROSS THE EXTREME WESTERN PORTION OF THE NORTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA...THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE... SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA...THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA...AND EASTERN LOUISIANA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES POSSIBLE. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA. ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY IN PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...WESTERN GEORGIA...AND SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL ALABAMA. PRESENTLY MOST HEAVY PRECIPITATION IS N OF THE CENTER IN RAIN BANDS AFFECTING MAINLY SW GEORGIA AND CENTRAL ALABAMA. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE IS JUST WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS ALONG 25W/26W MOVING WEST AT 10-15 KT. SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS INDICATE THAT A BROAD AREA OF CYCLONIC TURNING IS ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 12N WITH A CLUSTER OF MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION. A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 50W S OF 24N. A 1012 MB LOW IS ON THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 21N50W PRODUCING SEVERAL SMALL CLUSTERS OF MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 20N-24N BETWEEN 46W-55W. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO GRADUALLY BECOME LESS CONDUCIVE...BUT SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE IS STILL POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES W-NW OR NW AT 10-15 KT. A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN ALONG 66W PAIRED WITH A 1008 MB LOW PRESSURE LOCATED BETWEEN BARBADOS AND TRINIDAD IS PRODUCING A LARGE BUT DISORGANIZED AREA OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AND THE E CARIBBEAN SEA SOUTH OF 15N. ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES GENERALLY WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. THIS WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SQUALLY WEATHER OVER PORTIONS OF THE WINDWARD AND SOUTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. ...THE ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 18N16W 9N33W 13N46 12N58W. BESIDES THE CONVECTION MENTIONED ON THE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-12N EAST OF 19W TO THE COAST OF W AFRICA. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NEAR 8.5N30W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... FAY WEAKENED TO A DEPRESSION AT 0300 UTC. ALL TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO COAST WERE DISCONTINUED...BUT HEAVY RAINS AND FLOODING COULD CONTINUE. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. AN UPPER-LEVEL HIGH ANCHORED OVER NE MEXICO DOMINATES THE WESTERN HALF OF THE GULF AND IS HELPING TO INDUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER E MEXICO N OF 20N E OF 100W. THERE IS AN NARROW UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALONG THE CENTRAL GULF WHILE A SECOND UPPER-LEVEL HIGH CENTERED OVER WESTERN CUBA EXTENDS A RIDGE NWD ACROSS THE E GULF AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. A COUPLE OF RAINBANDS ASSOCIATED WITH T.D. FAY ARE SEEN OVER THE NE QUADRANT OF THE GULF REGION. AT THE SURFACE...WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT ASSOCIATED WITH THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OF FAY ARE AFFECTING THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS E OF 90W AND N OF 27N. MAINLY LIGHT WINDS ARE SEEN ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA. A WEAK SFC TROUGH IS ANALYZED OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AT 0300 UTC. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN GENERATING A LARGE BUT DISORGANIZED AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST THAT A BROAD SURFACE CIRCULATION COULD BE FORMING OVER THE SE CARIBBEAN. PRES ARE FALLING 2 MB OVER THAT AREA. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 15-20 KT OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN TODAY THROUGH MON DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF THE TROPICAL WAVE/LOW. SEE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION. AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ENTERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA THROUGH THE MONA PASSAGE THEN CONTINUES TO N COLOMBIA.THIS TROUGH IS LIKELY PRODUCING AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS JUST SOUTH OF DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. THE UPPER-LEVEL HIGH LOCATED OVER W CUBA COVERS MOST OF THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN GIVING THE AREA ELY UPPER LEVEL FLOW. A SECOND UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC DOMINATES THE E CARIBBEAN AND IS SUPPORTING THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ENVELOPS THE FORECAST AREA PRODUCING MOSTLY EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 23N-32N BETWEEN W AFRICA AND 80W. TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SFC HIGH AND LOWER PRES OVER AFRICA IS PRODUCING A SWATH OF MODERATE TO STRONG NELY WINDS BETWEEN THE MADEIRA/CANARY ISLANDS AND THE AFRICAN COAST. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A TROUGH/RIDGE/TROUGH PATTERN DOMINATES THE REGION WITH A COUPLE OF UPPER-LEVEL LOWS LOCATED NEAR 34N70W AND OVER THE E ATLC NEAR 28N29W. THE CENTRAL ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER-LEVEL HIGH THAT EXTENDS A RIDGE SOUTH OVER THE N TROPICAL ATLC AND THE E CARIBBEAN. $$ GR