000 AXNT20 KNHC 232355 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT SAT AUG 23 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FAY AT 23/2100 UTC IS NEAR 30.6N 86.3W IN THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE ABOUT 105 MILES... 175 KM...EAST OF MOBILE ALABAMA AND ABOUT 55 MILES... 85 KM...EAST OF PENSACOLA FLORIDA. T.S. FAY IS MOVING WEST 6 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 999 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. FAY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE NORTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA...THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA...THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF BOTH MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA...AND EASTERN LOUISIANA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES POSSIBLE. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA. PRESENTLY MOST HEAVY PRECIPITATION IS E OF THE STORM CENTER IN RAIN BANDS. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 26N-34N BETWEEN 80W-85W. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 24W MOVING WESTWARD THROUGH THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS AT 10 KT. SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM 13N-20N BETWEEN 23W-30W. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 22N50W 16N47W 10N48W MOVING WEST 10-15 KT. A 1012 MB LOW IS ON THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 20N49W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS E OF THE LOW CENTER FROM 21N-23N BETWEEN 47W-49W. THE 1008 MB LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS NEAR 11N56W MOVING WEST 10-15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 9N-12N BETWEEN 53W-58W. A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 64W SOUTH OF 17N MOVING WEST 10 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-15N BETWEEN 60W-64W...AND FROM 13N-16N BETWEEN 64W-68W. ...THE ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 18N16W 9N33W 13N48W 11N60W. BESIDES THE CONVECTION MENTIONED ON THE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION... SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF W AFRICA FROM 7N-10N BETWEEN 12W-16W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-7N BETWEEN 27W-29W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... T.S.FAY IS JUST INLAND OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND IS SHOWING THE FIRST SIGNS OF WEAKENING. SEE ABOVE. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER S TEXAS...NE MEXICO...AND THE W GULF OF MEXICO FROM 23N-30N BETWEEN 97W-101W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER W CUBA FROM 22N-23N BETWEEN 80W-84W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS OVER N MEXICO NEAR 25N100W. ANTICYCLONIC FLOW EXTENDS E TO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 90W. OUTFLOW FROM T.S. FAY EXTENDS N TO TENNESSEE AND S TO CENTRAL FLORIDA. ANOTHER SMALL UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER W CUBA NEAR 22N82W. EXPECT CONTINUED CONVECTION WITH FAY AND MORE CONVECTION OVER S TEXAS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN SEA. SEE ABOVE. OTHERWISE FRESH TRADEWINDS DOMINATE THE CARIBBEAN SEA. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE OVER N COLOMBIA...AND NW VENEZUELA FROM 9N-12N BETWEEN 70W-76W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS OVER E CUBA FROM 19N-22N BETWEEN 75W-80W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER CENTRAL AMERICA FROM PANAMA TO HONDURAS...AND OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM 7N-16N BETWEEN 77W-90W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER HISPANIOLA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED N OF PUERTO RICO NEAR 20N66W. EASTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA S OF 20N AND W OF 75W. EXPECT CONTINUED CONVECTION OVER THE CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... MOSTLY EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW IS NOTED OVER THE ATLANTIC FROM 23N-32N FROM W AFRICA TO 80W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC N OF 26N BETWEEN 65W-80W. AN UPPER HIGH IS FURTHER E OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 24N58W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 29N53W. DIFFLUENCE NE OF THE CENTER IS PRODUCING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 30N-32N BETWEEN 51W-53W. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 28N45W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 28N30W. EXPECT THE TROPICAL WAVES AND TO CONTINUE TO PRODUCE PRECIPITATION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. $$ FORMOSA