000 AXNT20 KNHC 231805 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT SAT AUG 23 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FAY AT 23/1800 UTC IS NEAR 30.5N 85.9W IN THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE ABOUT 75 MILES/125 KM EAST OF PENSACOLA FLORIDA. T.S. FAY IS MOVING WEST 6 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. PLEASE ALSO PAY ATTENTION TO LOCAL NWS OFFICE WARNINGS/WATCHES/BULLETINS ABOUT RAINFALL AND FLOODING FOR YOUR SPECIFIC AREA. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 29N INLAND TO SOUTHERN GEORGIA AND SOUTHERN ALABAMA NEAR 32N BETWEEN 83W AND 87W. A SMALLER AREA OF PRECIPITATION IS ABOUT 300 NM TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE CENTER...WITH CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES WARMING DURING THE LAST 4 HOURS OR SO. SHOWERS ARE IN WESTERN FLORIDA FROM 26N TO 28N BETWEEN 81W AND 82W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ALSO ARE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO NORTH OF 23N EAST OF 90W. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 23W/24W MOVING WESTWARD THROUGH THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS 10 TO 15 KT. DISORGANIZED SHOWERS FROM 10N TO 14N BETWEEN 23W AND 30W. ONE AREA OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS WITHIN A 15 TO 30 NM RADIUS OF 10.5N 28.5W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AROUND THIS WAVE COVER THE AREA FROM 14N TO 21N BETWEEN 22W AND 31W. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 21N49W 16N47W 10N46W MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. A 1014 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 19.5N ALONG THE WAVE. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 19N TO 21N BETWEEN 48W AND 50W. THE 1010 MB AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS 11N55W MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 10N TO 10.5N BETWEEN 54W AND 56W. OTHER NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE ITCZ COVER THE AREA FROM 9.5N TO 13N BETWEEN 54W AND 60W. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE SPREADING ACROSS TRINIDAD AT THIS TIME. EXPECT HEAVY RAINFALL TO SOME DEGREE IF THIS ENTIRE AREA OF ITCZ CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION MAINTAINS ITSELF AND MOVES WESTWARD TOWARD VENEZUELA AND THE SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 63W/64W SOUTH OF 17N MOVING WEST 10 KT. SCATTERED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 64W AND 66W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 12N TO 15N BETWEEN 66W AND 69W. ...THE ITCZ... 11N16W 10N30W 13N46W 12N54W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS WITHIN 15 TO 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 6N24W 6N30W 5N40W...AND FROM 3N TO 8N BETWEEN 40W AND47W. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 9N TO 13N BETWEEN 54W AND 60W...AND SPREADING ACROSS TRINIDAD. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW ON TOP OF T.S. FAY MOVES SOUTHEASTWARD ON TOP OF THE BAHAMAS. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM ARKANSAS INTO LOUISIANA FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. A SECOND MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS IN NORTHERN MEXICO NEAR 29N105W. A TROUGH FROM THIS CENTER EXTENDS TO 28N101W...ABOUT 90 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF NUEVO LAREDO MEXICO. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS MEXICO SOUTH OF 26N. SOME UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ALSO SPILLS INTO THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO FROM THE ARKANSAS-LOUISIANA TROUGH. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE AREA SOUTH OF T.S. FAY. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 20N67W...ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE MONA PASSAGE TO 16N70W. WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS/POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS FROM 16N TO 17 BETWEEN 66W AND 71W...AND ONE PRECIPITATION CELL IS ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC ALONG 70W. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER HAS MOVED FROM THE WEST CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA DURING THE LAST 16 HOURS OR SO INTO NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA AT THE PRESENT TIME. CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THIS CENTER COVERS THE AREA TO 20N WEST OF 80W...AND INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA ALSO. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS IN GENERAL ARE SOUTH OF 14N BETWEEN 75W AND CENTRAL AMERICA. STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE SOUTH OF 10N BETWEEN 81W AND THE COASTS OF PANAMA AND COSTA RICA. THE ITCZ ALSO IS IN THE VICINITY. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 34N69W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER TO 29N69W 25N71W TO 20N72W. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 30 TO 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 23N71W 25N66W 28N62W BEYOND 31N62W. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE BETWEEN THE BAHAMAS AND CUBA FROM 22N TO 24N ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE 34N69W 20N72W TROUGH...PROBABLY WITH SOME AFTERNOON HEATING UNDER SOME UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N52W TO A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 27N54W TO 24N54W 21N58W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS NORTH OF 28N BETWEEN 52W AND 54W. AN EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 29N28W. ONE BRANCH OF A TROUGH EXTENDS TO 33N26W. ANOTHER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE CYCLONIC CENTER TO 25N30W AND 20N34W. $$ MT