000 AXNT20 KNHC 210602 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION... NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT THU AUG 21 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0345 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... TROPICAL STORM FAY IS CENTERED NEAR 29.1N 80.7W OR ABOUT 17 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DAYTONA BEACH FLORIDA AT 21/0600 UTC. FAY IS IS DRIFTING NORTHWESTWARD NEAR 2 KT OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS AND IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST LATER THIS MORNING. CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 993 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NHC THE FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC AND PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. THE UPPER HIGH ASSOCIATED WITH FAY REMAINS ELONGATED E/W PROVIDING OUTFLOW OVER THE W ATLC TO 72W AND THE GULF OF MEXICO TO 87W. SCATTERED/HEAVY SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE INLAND OVER NE FLORIDA FROM JUST S OF MELBOURNE TO JUST S OF JACKSONVILLE AND IN THE W ATLC WATERS FROM 27N-31N W OF 80W. HEAVY SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE W ATLC WATERS FROM 26N-31N BETWEEN 75W-80W. SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE WHILE THE CENTER OF FAY REMAINS OVER WATER THIS MORNING...BUT GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST LATER TODAY AND FRIDAY AS FAY IS FORECAST TO MOVE VERY SLOWLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA TODAY...AND NEAR THE GULF COAST IN THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AREA ON FRIDAY. FAY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES OVER EAST-CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA...WITH 3 TO 6 INCHES OVER SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA. ISOLATED STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 30 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN FLORIDA. THE MELBOURNE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE REPORTS RAINFALL TOTALS OF NEARLY 25 INCHES IN PARTS OF NORTH MELBOURNE. ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE EXTREME NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A NEW TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 29W/30W S OF 19N WITH A 1008 MB LOW ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 11N WAS ADDED TO THE 0000Z SURFACE ANALYSIS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND A QSCAT PASS THAT SHOWS A WELL DEFINED WIND SHIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE AS WELL AS A BROAD CYCLONIC CIRCULATION ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 11N. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN SOME DRY AIR...THUS NO ASSOCIATED SHOWER ACTIVITY/CONVECTION. A WEAK 1007 MB LOW IS ANALYZED IN THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 12N43W MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS REMOVED FROM THE LOW NW FROM 11N-15N BETWEEN 45W-48W. TROPICAL WAVE IN THE W TROPICAL ATLC IS ALONG 53W S OF 18N MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. NO ASSOCIATED SHOWER ACTIVITY/CONVECTION. TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN IS ALONG 73W S OF 21N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. NO ASSOCIATED SHOWERS/CONVECTION. ...THE ITCZ... THE ITCZ IS CENTERED ALONG 14N16W 13N27W 11N34W 12N51W 9N62W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-11N BETWEEN 33W-37W WITH CLUSTERS OF SIMILAR CONVECTION FROM 6N-11N W OF 37W TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... WIDELY ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ALL THAT REMAIN OF T.S. FAY IN THE E GULF N OF 26N E OF 85W ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. AN UPPER LOW IS MOVING NE OVER ARKANSAS EXTENDING AN UPPER TROUGH OVER TEXAS TO THE GULF COAST GENERATING A SMALL AREA OF SHOWERS/ THUNDERSTORMS N OF 29N NEAR THE LOUISIANA/TEXAS BORDER. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ANCHORED OFF THE W COAST OF MEXICO EXTENDS INTO THE SW GULF ALONG 22N TO 90W WITH A SECOND UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED S OF W CUBA COVERING THE SE GULF. A SURFACE TROUGH IS INLAND OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA GENERATING SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE E BAY OF CAMPECHE S OF 21N E OF 93W. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF REMAINS RATHER CLEAR THIS MORNING WITH A WEAK 1014 MB HIGH OFF THE SE COAST OF LOUISIANA NEAR 28N89W. CARIBBEAN SEA... AN INDUCED INVERTED UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM S NICARAGUA TO THE MONA PASSAGE SEPARATING AN UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED NEAR THE ISLE OF YOUTH OFF THE W COAST OF CUBA AND A SECOND UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE W TROPICAL ATLC E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM COLOMBIA OVER PANAMA INTO THE E PACIFIC GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS S OF 12N BETWEEN 75W-79W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 90 NM ALONG THE S COAST OF CUBA. EASTERLY TRADE WINDS HAVE INCREASED OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS AND COUPLED WITH ADVECTED TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE E CARIBBEAN ARE USHERING IN SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA E OF 69W. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS DOMINATED BY MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR...THUS CLEAR SKIES ELSEWHERE TONIGHT. ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE FAR W ATLC AGAIN TONIGHT IS THE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH T.S. FAY...SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. AN ELONGATED UPPER LOW IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC EXTENDS FROM 30N60W TO THE MONA PASSAGE. A LARGE BENIGN UPPER LOW COVERS MOST OF THE CENTRAL ATLC CENTERED NEAR 22N52W WITH AN UPPER HIGH ANCHORED E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 127N59W. AN E/W UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE E ATLC. MODERATE SUBSIDENCE AND SOMEWHAT DRY STABLE AIR COVERS THE ATLC E OF 60W GIVING THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS AGAIN TONIGHT. A SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS OVER MOST OF THE ATLC N OF 23N E OF 70W ANCHORED BY A SERIES OF HIGHS N OF THE REGION. $$ WALLACE