000 AXNT20 KNHC 201801 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION... NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... TROPICAL STORM FAY IS CENTERED NEAR 28.6N 80.6W OR ABOUT 13 NM NORTH OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA AT 20/1800 UTC AND HAS BEEN NEARLY STATIONARY DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NHC THE FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC AND PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. THE UPPER HIGH ASSOCIATED WITH FAY REMAINS ELONGATED N/S FROM WRN CUBA NORTHWARD TO GEORGIA PROVIDING OUTFLOW OVER THE W ATLC TO 70W AND THE GULF OF MEXICO TO 86W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS LOCATED OFF THE ERN COAST OF FLORIDA FROM 25N-30N BETWEEN 76W-80W. SCATTERED/NUMEROUS SHOWERS REMAIN LOCATED WITHIN 250 NM OF THE CENTER IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT ACROSS THE ERN COAST OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA N OF 27N TO CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA. FAY WILL CONTINUE DRIFTING SLOWLY NORTHWARD WHILE EMBEDDED WITHIN VERY WEAK MID-LEVEL STEERING FLOW. FAY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES OVER EAST-CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA...WITH 3 TO 6 INCHES OVER SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA. ISOLATED STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 30 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN FLORIDA. ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL ATLC IS ALONG 49W/50W S OF 18N MOVING W 10-15 KT. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION IS OBSERVED. TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN IS ALONG 70W/71W S OF 20N MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. NO ASSOCIATED SHOWERS/CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE AS IT MOVES BENEATH STRONG UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE. ...THE ITCZ... THE ITCZ IS CENTERED ALONG 16N16W 11N30W 11N39W 10N52W 8N60W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS MOVING OFF THE W AFRICAN COAST FROM 10N-14N BETWEEN 12W-20W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-10N BETWEEN 29W-34W. A 1008 MB LOW IS IN THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 12N42W EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ DRIFTING W NEAR 5 KT. OVERALL PRESENTATION ON SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW AN AREA OF DISORGANIZED CONVECTION FROM 11N-13N BETWEEN 42W-45W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... ISOLATED SHOWERS REMAIN ACROSS THE SE GULF OF MEXICO W OF 83W AND ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA IN ASSOCIATION WITH T.S. FAY. AN UPPER LOW REMAINS OVER NE TEXAS WITH TROUGHING EXTENDING INTO THE FAR NW GULF. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ANCHORED OFF THE W COAST OF MEXICO EXTENDS INTO THE GULF ALONG 21N98W NE TO 24N91W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WRN GULF W OF A LINE FROM VERMILION BAY TO VERACRUZ MEXICO. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF REMAINS RATHER CLEAR DUE TO A NARROW CORRIDOR OF HIGHER PRESSURE VALUES EXTENDING FROM THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER DELTA TO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE WRN CARIBBEAN W OF 72W WITH THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM WRN CUBA TO NRN BELIZE AND A SECOND UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE W TROPICAL ATLC COVERING THE ERN CARIBBEAN. THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM COLOMBIA ALONG THE N COAST OF PANAMA ACROSS SRN COSTA RICA INTO THE E PACIFIC GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 90 NM OF A LINE FROM 16N78W TO 10N83W. WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ACROSS THE FAR SE CARIBBEAN GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 9N-14N BETWEEN 60W-66W. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS DOMINATED BY MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR...THUS CLEAR SKIES ELSEWHERE THIS AFTERNOON. ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE W ATLC REMAINS T.S. FAY...SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. THE ELONGATED UPPER LOW IN THE W/CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDS FROM NEAR BERMUDA S TO 18N68W. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS BENEATH THE UPPER LOW EXTENDING FROM 31N65W TO 27N68W. A LARGE UPPER LOW COVERS MOST OF THE CENTRAL ATLC CENTERED NEAR 20N47W WITH A WEAKER UPPER LOW NW OF THE CANARY ISLANDS NEAR 34N18W. BOTH OF THESE LOWS ARE BENIGN FEATURES. MODERATE SUBSIDENCE AND SOMEWHAT DRY STABLE AIR COVERS THE ATLC E OF 60W GIVING THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS. A SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE MOST OF THE ATLC N OF 20N E OF 60W ANCHORED BY A SERIES OF HIGHS N OF THE REGION. $$ HUFFMAN