000 AXNT20 KNHC 192350 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION... NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... TROPICAL STORM FAY MADE ITS SECOND LANDFALL EARLY THIS MORNING NEAR CAPE ROMANO SW COAST OF FLORIDA. SINCE THEN...IT HAS BEEN MOVING ACROSS THE SUNSHINE STATE LOOKING STRONGER THAN IT HAS EVER BEEN SO FAR. AT 20/0000Z...THE CENTER OF FAY REMAINS INLAND NEAR 27.5N 80.9W OR ABOUT 40 NM...75 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF MELBOURNE FLORIDA MOVING NORTH-NORTHEAST AT 6 KT. A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTH WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS ANTICIPATED ON WEDNESDAY. THIS TRACK SHOULD BRING FAY OVER WATER NEAR THE EAST COAST OF NORTH FLORIDA DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 986 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 55 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NHC THE FORECAST/ ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/ WTNT21 KNHC AND PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. CURRENTLY FAY IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW BETWEEN A MID-LEVEL TROUGH THAT EXTENDS ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. SEABOARD THROUGH CENTRAL FLORIDA TO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THIS UPPER TROUGH IS STEERING THE STORM N-NE. HOWEVER...THIS STEERING PATTERN IS FORECAST TO CHANGE SOON AS A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BEGINS TO DEVELOP NORTH OF FAY. THE SPIRAL RAINBANDS ASSOCIATED WITH FAY CONTINUE TO AFFECT MAINLY CENTRAL FLORIDA WITH THE CENTER JUST N OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE. A COUPLE OF OUTER RAINBANDS ARE STILL MOVING ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE KEYS PRODUCING HEAVY SHOWERS AT TIME. FAY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES OVER THE SOUTHERN AND EAST-CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA..WITH MAXIMUM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES. ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS. ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IN THE E TROPICAL ATLC IS ALONG 38W S OF 17N WITH A 1010 MB LOW ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 13N. THIS LOW HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION TODAY. ALTHOUGH ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE ONLY MARGINALLY FAVORABLE...SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE LOW MOVES TO THE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST AT 10-15 KT. A CLUSTER OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED WITHIN 120 NM SW QUADRANT OF THE LOW. ANOTHER AREA OF CLOUDINESS REMAINS BEHIND THE WAVE AXIS WITH THE CLOUD PATTERN EXHIBITING SOME CYCLONIC TURNING NEAR 11N29W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE MOVING AROUND THIS SECOND CENTER. TROPICAL WAVE IN THE E CARIBBEAN/W TROPICAL ATLC REMAINS TILTED FROM 20N65W ACROSS NE PUERTO RICO THROUGH THE ABC ISLANDS TO THE COAST OF VENEZUELA NEAR 11N68W MOVING W 10-15 KT. A WEAK INVERTED-V SIGNATURE IS NOTED ON VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY JUST SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO. A WIND SURGE FOLLOWS THE WAVE AND IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. ...THE ITCZ... THE ITCZ IS CENTERED ALONG 13N17W 10N26W 12N36W 10N45W 8N60W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-10N BETWEEN 23W-35W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS OVER THE GUYANAS. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... THE PRIMARY CONCERN FOR THE ERN GULF IS T.S. FAY AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA THIS EVENING. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. A BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE ERN U.S. DIGS INTO THE EASTERN GULF THROUGH THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. AN INVERTED TROUGH IS SEEN OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA PREVIOUSLY ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW THAT WAS SPINNING OVER WESTERN CUBA DURING THE LAST FEW DAYS. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF REGION IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A RIDGE ANCHORED ON AN UPPER-LEVEL HIGH NOW LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA. ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS MOVING SE OVER N TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS INLAND ACROSS LOUISIANA AND TEXAS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NW CORNER OF THE GULF. A WEAK 1013 MB HIGH REMAINS OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF NEAR 28N90W. THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE FAR E GULF WILL CONTINUE TO FEEL THE EFFECTS OF T.S. FAY AS IT MOVES IN A NORTHERLY DIRECTION. CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER-LEVEL HIGH CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS EXTENDS A RIDGE OVER CUBA AND THE NW CARIBBEAN GIVING MOST OF THE CENTRAL AND WEST CARIBBEAN EASTERLY UPPER FLOW. HUMID SLY WINDS AT LOW LEVELS COMBINED WITH UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE ABOVE MENTIONED UPPER HIGH IS PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF CUBA. SIMILAR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS NOTED OVER WESTERN VENEZUELA AND NORTHERN COLOMBIA AS WELL AS OVER COSTA RICA LIKELY DUE TO THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDING FROM COLOMBIA INTO THE E PACIFIC JUST N OF PANAMA. A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN FOLLOWED BY A WIND SURGE. SEE ABOVE. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS DOMINATED BY MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR. ATLANTIC OCEAN... RAINBANDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OF FAY ARE AFFECTING THE NW BAHAMAS AND THE FAR W PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS W OF 74W AND N OF 24N. AN UPPER LOW IS IN THE W/CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 26N64W EXTENDING A NARROW UPPER TROUGH TO THE MONA PASSAGE. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 260 NM E OF THE LOW N OF 25N. AN UPPER RIDGE IS TO THE E EXTENDING SOUTH OVER THE N TROPICAL ATLC. FURTHER EAST...A LARGE UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR 20N45W COVERS MOST OF THE E/CENTRAL ATLC. AN UPPER TROUGH CONNECTS THIS LOW WITH A WEAKER UPPER LOW NW OF THE CANARY ISLANDS NEAR 31N20W. THE AZORES HIGH DOMINATES MOST OF THE ATLC N OF 20N E OF 55W. THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST BY THE COMPUTER MODELS TO SLIGHTLY STRENGTHEN DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS PRODUCING A SWATH OF MODERATE TO STRONG TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLC...PARTICULARLY FROM 15N-22N. $$ GR