000 AXNT20 KNHC 191201 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION... NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT TUE AUG 19 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... TROPICAL STORM FAY IS CENTERED NEAR 26.5N 81.4W WHICH IS INLAND OVER SOUTH FLORIDA ABOUT 26 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF FT. MYERS FLORIDA AND 30 NM SOUTHWEST OF MOORE HAVEN ON THE WEST SIDE OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE AT 19/1200 UTC MOVING NORTH-NORTHWEST AT 8 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 988 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NHC THE FORECAST/ ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/ WTNT21 KNHC AND PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. THE UPPER HIGH ASSOCIATED WITH FAY IS ELONGATED ALONG A LINE FROM NEAR KEY WEST FLORIDA ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA N OF THE BAHAMAS TO NEAR 29N78W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 90/120 NM OF LINE FROM 25N83W ACROSS FLORIDA TO 28N77W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA FROM 23N-30N BETWEEN 77W-82W. T.S. FAY MADE LANDFALL OVER COLLIER COUNTY FLORIDA AND IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES...WITH MAXIMUM STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND EAST-CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA. ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS. ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE TODAY OVER SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL FLORIDA. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IN THE E TROPICAL ATLC IS ALONG 36W/37W S OF 17N WITH A 1010 MB LOW ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 13N MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. BROAD AREA OF DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE IS INDICATED BY MIMIC-TPW ANIMATION WITH A WELL DEFINED MID LEVEL LOW OBSERVED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER THE LOW CENTER. SCATTERED MODERATE/ ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 12N-14N BETWEEN 36W-39W. TROPICAL WAVE IN THE E CARIBBEAN/W TROPICAL ATLC REMAINS TILTED FROM 20N62W BETWEEN THE LEEWARD AND VIRGIN ISLANDS TO THE COAST OF VENEZUELA NEAR 10N66W MOVING W 10-15 KT. NO ASSOCIATED SHOWERS/CONVECTION. ...THE ITCZ... THE ITCZ IS CENTERED ALONG 11N13W 9N21W 13N34W 10N39W 7N53W 9N62W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 8N-11N E OF 22W TO INLAND OVER W AFRICA...FROM 10N-13N BETWEEN 28W-32W...AND FROM 10N-12N BETWEEN 58W-60W. CLUSTERS OF SIMILAR CONVECTION ARE FROM 1N-8N BETWEEN 34W-40W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 7N-10N BETWEEN E OF 25W TO THE COAST OF W AFRICA. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... THE PRIMARY CONCERN FOR THE GULF AGAIN THIS MORNING IS T.S. FAY MADE LANDFALL ALONG THE W COAST OF FLORIDA...SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. NARROWING UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE FAR E U.S. TO S GEORGIA WITH THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINING INLAND EXTENDING FROM S GEORGIA TO E TEXAS WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH ALONG THE TEXAS COAST. AN UPPER LOW IS MOVING SE OVER N TEXAS INTO OKLAHOMA. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ANCHORED OVER NW MEXICO EXTENDS INTO THE GULF ALONG NEAR 23N THEN IS BEING DRAWN NE TO OVER LOUISIANA NEAR 30N92W BY THE UPPER LOW OVER TEXAS. THIS SCENARIO IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NW GULF W OF A LINE FROM LOUISIANA NEAR 30N90W TO NEAR TAMPICO MEXICO. THE CENTRAL AND S GULF REMAIN RATHER CLEAR THIS MORNING. CONDITIONS OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE FAR E GULF WILL CONTINUED TO DETERIORATE AS T.S. FAY MOVES IN A NORTHERLY DIRECTION. CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS GIVING MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN WESTERLY UPPER LOW WITH NE UPPER FLOW W OF THE RIDGE AXIS. THIS IS PROVIDING UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 60 NM OF LINE FROM 20N82W OVER CUBA NEAR 22N80W. THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM COLOMBIA INTO THE E PACIFIC JUST N OF PANAMA GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE FAR SW CARIBBEAN S OF 11N BETWEEN COLOMBIA AND COSTA RICA. THE ENTIRE E CARIBBEAN IS DOMINATED BY MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR...THUS CLEAR SKIES ARE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA. ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE SW ATLC AGAIN THIS MORNING IS THE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH T.S. FAY...SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. UPPER HIGH ASSOCIATED WITH T.S. FAY IS OVER THE FAR W ATLC... SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. AN UPPER LOW IS IN THE W/CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 25N62W EXTENDING A NARROWING UPPER TROUGH TO JUST N OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS TO HISPANIOLA. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS TO THE N OF THE UPPER LOW EXTENDING FROM 31N58W TO 25N65W. AN UPPER RIDGE IS TO THE E EXTENDING FROM 22N52W TO BEYOND 32N52W PROVIDING UPPER DIFFLUENCE TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS/ ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 90 NM OF LINE FROM 22N60W TO 26N57W. A LARGE UPPER LOW COVERS MOST OF THE E/CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 24N42W WITH A WEAKER UPPER LOW JUST W OF THE CANARY ISLANDS NEAR 30N20W. MODERATE SUBSIDENCE AND SOMEWHAT DRY STABLE AIR COVERS THE ATLC E OF 70W GIVING THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS AGAIN THIS MORNING. A SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE MOST OF THE ATLC N OF 20N E OF 70W WITH A WEAKNESS NEAR THE SURFACE TROUGH ANCHORED BY A SERIES OF HIGHS N OF THE REGION. $$ WALLACE