000 AXNT20 KNHC 181032 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION... NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT MON AUG 18 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0945 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... TROPICAL STORM FAY IS CENTERED NEAR 22.45N 80.9W OR ABOUT 90 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HAVANA CUBA OR ABOUT 220 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KEY WEST FLORIDA AT 18/0900 UTC MOVING NNW AT 10 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NHC THE FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC AND PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT1/ WTNT31 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. BROAD UPPER HIGH ASSOCIATED WITH FAY COVERS THE N/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND W ATLC FROM 16N-27N BETWEEN 72W ACROSS FLORIDA TO 83W INCLUDING THE BAHAMA ISLANDS. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION NE OF THE CENTER WITHIN 90/120 NM OF LINE FROM THE N BAHAMAS NEAR 26N78W ACROSS CUBA TO 21N80W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA FROM 18N-27N BETWEEN 76W-84W INCLUDING THE N BAHAMA ISLANDS...S FLORIDA...AND THE FLORIDA KEYS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IN THE E TROPICAL ATLC IS ALONG 33W S OF 17N MOVING W 10-15 KT. BROAD AREA OF DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE IS INDICATED BY MIMIC-TPW ANIMATION. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 10N-14N BETWEEN 31W-40W. TROPICAL WAVE IN THE W TROPICAL ATLC REMAINS TILTED FROM 20N55W THROUGH A LOW/MID LEVEL CYCLONIC ROTATION NEAR 19N58W BETWEEN BARBADOS AND THE REMAINDER OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS ACROSS TRINIDAD TO 9N62W MOVING WNW 10-15 KT. WAVE CONTINUES TO BE DISTORTED BY AN UPPER LOW TO THE W OF THE WAVE AXIS AND AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS TO THE E. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 75 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE N OF 17N. ...THE ITCZ... THE ITCZ IS CENTERED ALONG 12N14W 10N23W 11N34W 8N45W 11N59W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ AXIS FROM 48W-54W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-13N BETWEEN 25W-29W AND WITHIN 90 NM OF A LINE FROM 9N27W TO 6N34W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... THE PRIMARY CONCERN FOR THE GULF THIS MORNING IS THE APPROACHING T.S. FAY. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. BROAD UPPER TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE E U.S. TO THE N GULF COAST STATES WITH ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINING INLAND EXTENDING FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS S GEORGIA TO E TEXAS. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF 28N TO THE LOUISIANA COAST. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS ACROSS THE W GULF ANCHORED OVER NW MEXICO EXTENDING ALONG 25N TO 89W. WEAK 1014 MB HIGH IS LOCATED NEAR 28N86W. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF REMAINS RATHER CLEAR THIS MORNING WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE FAR NE GULF N OF 28N E OF 85W. CONDITIONS OVER THE FAR E GULF INCLUDING THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WILL CONTINUED TO DETERIORATE AS T.S. FAY MOVES OFF CUBA LATER THIS MORNING AND THROUGH THE DAY. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE PRIMARY FOCUS THIS MORNING CONTINUES TO BE T.S. FAY. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. BROAD UPPER HIGH IS LOCATED OVER THE T.S. FAY...SEE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE. THE UPPER LOW IN THE W/CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDS AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN BETWEEN GUADELOUPE IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND HISPANIOLA NEAR 71W. THE ENTIRE E CARIBBEAN IS DOMINATED BY MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR...THUS CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING FOR THE CARIBBEAN E OF 75W. THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM COLOMBIA INTO THE E PACIFIC REGION NEAR PANAMA/COSTA RICA BORDER GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE FAR SW CARIBBEAN S OF 10N BETWEEN COLOMBIA AND COSTA RICA. ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE SW ATLC THIS MORNING IS T.S. FAY...SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE SE U.S. EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC N OF THE REGION BUT IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS N OF A LINE FROM 31N70W TO 29N80W WITH ISOLATED N OF 28N W OF 80W TO INLAND OVER NE FLORIDA. UPPER HIGH IS OVER T.S. FAY...SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. THIS UPPER RIDGE IS PROVIDING ENOUGH UPPER DIFFLUENCE TO GENERATE A CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 27N W OF 71W TO THE FLORIDA COAST. LARGE UPPER LOW IS IN THE W/CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 26N62W EXTENDING AN UPPER TROUGH TO OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM 26N-29N BETWEEN 59W-62W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS TO THE E OF THE UPPER LOW EXTENDING FROM 30N54W TO 23N57W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. AN UPPER HIGH IS TO THE E NEAR 26N49W. A PAIR OF BENIGN UPPER LOWS ARE IN THE E ATLC WITH ONE NEAR 27N39W AND A SECOND JUST W OF THE CANARY ISLANDS NEAR 28N21W. MODERATE SUBSIDENCE AND SOMEWHAT DRY STABLE AIR COVERS THE ATLC E OF 50W GIVING THE AREA FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS THIS MORNING. A SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE MOST OF THE ATLC ANCHORED BY A SERIES OF HIGHS N OF THE REGION WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING E OF THE SURFACE TROUGH THROUGH 32N45W S TO 20N50W AND A SECOND RIDGE AXIS SW THROUGH BERMUDA TO NE OF THE T.S. FAY NEAR 26N74W. $$ WALLACE