000 AXNT20 KNHC 180604 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION... NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT MON AUG 18 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0415 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... TROPICAL STORM FAY IS CENTERED NEAR 21.4N 80.6W OR ABOUT 150 NM SOUTHEAST OF HAVANA CUBA OR ABOUT 205 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KEY WEST FLORIDA AT 18/0300 UTC MOVING NW AT 9 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1001 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NHC THE FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC AND PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. BROAD UPPER HIGH IS LOCATED OVER FAY COVERING THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND W ATLC FROM 15N-27N BETWEEN 72W ACROSS FLORIDA TO 83W INCLUDING THE BAHAMA ISLANDS. HEAVY SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS COVERS CENTRAL CUBA FROM E OF CAMAGUEY TO W OF SANTA CLARA WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ THUNDERSTORMS COVERING THE AREA FROM 18N25N BETWEEN 75W-83W. AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS ENROUTE AND UPDATE WILL FOLLOW. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IN THE E TROPICAL ATLC IS ALONG 30W/31W S OF 18N MOVING W 10-15 KT. BROAD AREA OF DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE IS INDICATED BY MIMIC-TPW ANIMATION MAINLY TO THE W OF THE WAVE AXIS. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 11N-15N BETWEEN 29W-36W. TROPICAL WAVE IN THE W TROPICAL ATLC IS TILTED FROM 21N57W ALONG 15N59W TO 10N61W MOVING WNW 10-15 KT. WAVE CONTINUES TO BE DISTORTED BY AN UPPER LOW TO THE W OF THE WAVE AXIS AND AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS TO THE E. NO ASSOCIATED SHOWERS/CONVECTION. ...THE ITCZ... THE ITCZ IS CENTERED ALONG 15N16W 14N25W 10N36W 7N45W 10N58W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM OF A LINE FROM 12N24W TO 9N28W WITH CLUSTERS OF SIMILAR CONVECTION WITHIN 75 NM OF LINE FROM 8N28W TO 5N34W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR THE GULF TONIGHT IS THE APPROACHING T.S. FAY. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. BROAD UPPER TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE E U.S. TO THE N GULF COAST STATES WITH ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINING INLAND EXTENDING ACROSS S GEORGIA TO E TEXAS. ISOLATED SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DOT THE N GULF N OF 27N. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS ACROSS THE W GULF ANCHORED OVER NW MEXICO EXTENDING ALONG 25N TO 90W. WEAK SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE NE GULF WITH A 1014 MB HIGH LOCATED NEAR 28N87W. OUTER RAIN BANDS FROM T.S. FAY ARE MOVING THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS TO OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS S OF 25N E OF 84W. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF REMAINS RATHER CLEAR TONIGHT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF HIGH THIN CLOUDS DOTTING THE AREA. CONDITIONS OVER THE SE GULF INCLUDING S FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS WILL CONTINUED TO DETERIORATE AS T.S. FAY MOVES ACROSS CUBA TONIGHT AND INTO THE AREA LATER TODAY. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE PRIMARY CONCERN TONIGHT CONTINUES TO BE T.S. FAY. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. ELONGATED UPPER LOW EXTENDS FROM THE EXTREME SE GULF JUST N OF W CUBA/E YUCATAN CHANNEL SW TO N BELIZE. BROAD UPPER HIGH IS LOCATED OVER THE T.S. FAY...SEE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE. THE UPPER LOW IN THE W/CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDS AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN BETWEEN GUADELOUPE IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS TO THE MONA PASSAGE. THE ENTIRE E CARIBBEAN IS DOMINATED BY MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR...THUS CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT FOR THE CARIBBEAN E OF 74W. THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM COLOMBIA INTO THE E PACIFIC REGION NEAR PANAMA/COSTA RICA BORDER GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 10N W OF 78W. ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE SW ATLC TONIGHT IS T.S. FAY WITH OUTER RAINBANDS CURRENTLY OVER THE N BAHAMA ISLANDS AND THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE SE U.S. EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC N OF THE REGION BUT IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS N OF 30N W OF 73W TO JUST INLAND OVER GEORGIA AND NE FLORIDA. UPPER HIGH IS OVER T.S. FAY...SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. THIS UPPER RIDGE IS PROVIDING ENOUGH UPPER DIFFLUENCE TO GENERATE A BAND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WELL REMOVED FROM THE STORM ITSELF WITHIN 75 NM OF LINE FROM 26N71W ALONG 28N76W TO OVER FLORIDA NEAR 28N81W. LARGE UPPER LOW IS IN THE W/CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 26N61W EXTENDING AN UPPER TROUGH TO OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN GENERATING AN AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 25N28N BETWEEN 57W-62W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS TO THE E OF THE UPPER LOW EXTENDING FROM 31N52W TO 22N56W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 60 NM OF LINE FROM 18N52W 23N54W TO 28N52W. AN UPPER HIGH IS TO THE E NEAR 26N48W. THESE UPPER FEATURES ARE TILTING THE TROPICAL WAVE. A PAIR OF BENIGN UPPER LOWS ARE IN THE E ATLC WITH ONE NEAR 28N38W AND A SECOND JUST W OF THE CANARY ISLANDS NEAR 29N21W. MODERATE SUBSIDENCE AND SOMEWHAT DRY STABLE AIR COVERS THE ATLC E OF 50W GIVING THE AREA FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS TONIGHT. A SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE MOST OF THE ATLC ANCHORED BY A PAIR OF 1025 MB HIGHS N OF THE REGION AND EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS E OF THE SURFACE TROUGH THROUGH 32N45W S TO 20N46W AND A SECOND RIDGE AXIS W THROUGH BERMUDA TO 31N71W. $$ WALLACE