000 AXNT20 KNHC 171800 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT SUN AUG 17 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FAY AT 17/1500 UTC IS NEAR 20.5N 78.6W OR ABOUT 75 MILES...125 KM...SOUTHWEST OF CAMAGUEY CUBA AND ABOUT 350 MILES...560 KM...SOUTHEAST OF KEY WEST FLORIDA. FAY IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST 11 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB. FAY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES OVER MUCH OF CUBA...JAMAICA...AND THE NORTHERN CAYMAN ISLANDS...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. PRESENTLY FAY HAS ISOLATED CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION EXTENDING FROM THE CAYMAN ISLANDS TO THE SRN BAHAMAS FROM 16N-24N BETWEEN 74W-84W. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 33W SOUTH OF 17N MOVING WEST 10-15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 13N-15N BETWEEN 30W-34W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS APPROACHING THE LESSER ANTILLES FROM 21N52W TO 14N58W 6N61W. THIS WAVE IS MOVING WEST 10-15 KT. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE W OF THE WAVE AXIS OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS FROM 12N-15N BETWEEN 59W-63W. ...THE ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 15N17W 11N33W 7N40W 6N53W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-13N BETWEEN 20W-27W... AND FROM 5N-7N BETWEEN 30W-35W ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... A STATIONARY FRONTAL SYSTEM EXTENDS FROM S GEORGIA TO S LOUISIANA TO SE TEXAS ALONG 31N81W 31N91W 28N97W. PREFRONTAL ACTIVITY IS PRODUCING SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION OVER THE N GULF OF MEXICO FROM 25N-29N BETWEEN 87W-97W. A WEAK 1016 MB HIGH IS OVER THE NE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 27N86W. ELSEWHERE...AN OUTER FEEDER BAND FROM FAY IS PRODUCING ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM 23N-25N BETWEEN 80W-83W. FURTHER W...MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE SW GULF AND THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. 5-10 KT ANTICYCLONIC SURFACE WINDS ARE GOING AROUND THE SURFACE HIGH. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER CENTRAL MEXICO NEAR 26N105W WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING E TO CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 24N90W. CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO EXCEPT OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. EXPECT CONTINUED FRONTAL ACTIVITY TO PRODUCE CONVECTION OVER THE N GULF STATES N OF 26N DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ALSO EXPECT MORE CONVECTION OVER THE FLORIDA AND THE E GULF E OF 86W DUE TO FAY. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... T.S. FAY IS ALONG THE S COAST OF CENTRAL CUBA AND A TROPICAL WAVE IS APPROACHING THE LESSER ANTILLES. SEE ABOVE. ELSEWHERE... MODERATE TO FRESH EASTERLY TRADEWINDS ARE BLOWING ACROSS THE BASIN. BESIDES THE CONVECTION MENTIONED ABOVE...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER PANAMA AND THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM 8N-13N BETWEEN 75W-83W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER W CUBA W OF FAY NEAR 22N85W. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW IS NOTED OVER FAY. EXPECT...CONVECTION OVER THE W CARIBBEAN DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS DUE TO FAY. ALSO EXPECT MORE CONVECTION OVER THE E CARIBBEAN DUE TO THE TROPICAL WAVE. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1024 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 35N44W. A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS W TOWARDS BERMUDA. PREFRONTAL ACTIVITY IS PRODUCING SCATTERED WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION OVER THE W ATLANTIC N OF 28N BETWEEN 70W-75W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC ALONG 27N51W 24N55W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 27N58W. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 25N44W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS W OF THE CANARY ISLANDS NEAR 28N20W. EXPECT THE TROPICAL WAVES AND T.S. FAY TO BE THE PRIMARY WEATHER PRODUCERS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. $$ FORMOSA