000 AXNT20 KNHC 170618 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT SUN AUG 17 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0415 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FAY AT 17/0600 UTC IS NEAR 19.6N 76.8W OR ABOUT 140 MILES/230 KM SOUTH SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CAMAGUEY CUBA. FAY IS MOVING WEST 12 KT. A TURN TO THE NORTHWEST WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A TURN TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY. FAY IS EXPECTED TO BE MOVING VERY NEAR THE SOUTH COAST OF CUBA TODAY...CROSS CENTRAL CUBA SUNDAY NIGHT...AND EMERGE INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO OR FLORIDA STRAITS ON MONDAY. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND FAY MAY REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH WHEN IT REACHES CENTRAL CUBA. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES/165 KM FROM THE CENTER. TIDES OF 1 TO 3 FEET FEET ABOVE NORMAL CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW. FAY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES OVER HAITI...EASTERN AND CENTRAL CUBA...JAMAICA...AND THE NORTHERN CAYMAN ISLANDS...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES. THESE RAINS MAY PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER GRAND CAYMAN AND OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS. TROPICAL STORM FAY IS SPREADING NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 17N TO 20N BETWEEN 74W AND 78W...AND ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS FROM 18N TO 21N BETWEEN 79W AND 81W. LINGERING CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS ARE ON TOP OF THE BAHAMAS...WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER OF T.S. FAY. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 29W/30W SOUTH OF 17N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 28W AND 35W. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 23N53W TO 15N55W...AND THEN SOUTHWARD ALONG 55W. THIS WAVE IS MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 21N TO 23N BETWEEN 49W AND 51W. ...THE ITCZ... 16N17W 13N28W 10N39W TO 14N52W. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 12N20W 8N25W 7N31W 5N50W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM NORTH CENTRAL INTERIOR MEXICO TO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...AND FINALLY NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. WEAKENING SHOWERS IN THE CENTRAL GULF WATER WERE RELATED TO A MIDDLE LEVEL TROUGH. THE EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE AREA IS FEELING THE EFFECTS OF CYCLONIC FLOW FROM THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA CYCLONIC CENTER NEAR 20N82W. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... TROPICAL STORM FAY IS SPREADING NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 17N TO 20N BETWEEN 74W AND 78W...AND ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS FROM 18N TO 21N BETWEEN 79W AND 81W. LINGERING CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS ARE ON TOP OF THE BAHAMAS...WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER OF T.S. FAY. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A WESTERN CUBA CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NEAR AREAS OF WEAK CYCLONIC CIRCULATION/TROUGHS SOUTH OF 21N IN MEXICO. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG THE LINE FROM 30N50W TO 24N53W. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 21N TO 23N BETWEEN 49W AND 51W. THIS TROUGH IS TO THE NORTH OF THE 23N53W 15N55W TROPICAL WAVE. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG THE LINE FROM 32N52W TO A 27N58W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 19N59W TO 16N60W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN 50W AND 70W. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N58W TO 30N74W...ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 29N21W JUST WEST OF THE CANARY ISLANDS TO A SMALLER CYCLONIC CENTER NEAR 20N26W TO ANOTHER SMALL CYCLONIC CENTER NEAR 17N34W TO 16N43W TO 13N48W. $$ MT