000 AXNT20 KNHC 170002 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT FRI AUG 15 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... TROPICAL STORM FAY IS CENTERED NEAR 19.3N 75.8W OR OR ABOUT 175 NM...320 KM...SOUTHEAST OF CAMAGUEY CUBA AND ABOUT 50 NM...100 KM...SOUTHWEST OF GUANTANAMO CUBA AT 17/0000 UTC. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF FAY WILL BE MOVING NEAR OR OVER THE SOUTHERN COAST OF EASTERN AND CENTRAL CUBA TONIGHT AND SUNDAY... AND NEAR OR OVER WESTERN CUBA SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB. REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 KT...70KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THESE WINDS ARE CONFINED TO A SMALL AREA TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER. SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT FAY IS BECOMING A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED. STRENGTHENING COULD BEGIN TONIGHT OR SUNDAY AND FAY COULD BE APPROACHING HURRICANE STRENGTH AS IT NEARS WESTERN CUBA. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NHC THE FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC AND PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. FAY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES OVER HISPANIOLA...EASTERN AND CENTRAL CUBA...JAMAICA...AND THE NORTHERN CAYMAN ISLANDS...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER JAMAICA AND THE NORTHERN CAYMAN ISLANDS...WHILE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS. A NEW CLUSTER OF STRONG CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF FAY. THIS ACTIVITY IS AFFECTING THE SOUTHERN PENINSULA OF HAITI. OUTER RAIN BANDS ARE OVER THE BAHAMAS AND EASTERN CUBA. INTERESTS IN WESTERN CUBA...THE FLORIDA KEYS...AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE E TROPICAL ATLC ALONG 28W S OF 17N MOVING W 10-15 KT. SOME CYCLONIC TURNING IS NOTED NEAR THE NORTHERN END OF THE WAVE AXIS WITH A BAND OF MODERATE CONVECTION ALONG 15N27W 14N28W 14N31W. THE WAVE SHOWS UP VERY WELL ON THE TPW PRODUCT WITH A BROAD AREA OF DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE. STRONG ELY UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE PRESENTLY OVER THIS FEATURE. A TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC MOVING W 10-15 KT AND EXTENDS FROM FROM 28N51W TO 12N54W. A CLUSTER OF MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 245 NM E OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 21N TO 24N. THIS TROPICAL WAVE IS INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW LOCATED NEAR 24N57W. THE N PART OF THE WAVE IS EXPECTED TO SHEAR OFF AND MOVE NW AT 15 KT AS A SFC TROUGH OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WWD APPROACHING THE LESSER ANTILLES LATE SUNDAY. ...THE ITCZ... THE ITCZ IS CENTERED ALONG 15N17W 10N27W 8N35W 11N51W. A LARGE CLUSTER OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS JUST MOVING OFF THE WEST AFRICAN COAST AND COVERS THE AREA FROM FROM 11.5N-15N BETWEEN 16.5W-19W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 80 NM SE OF LINE 10N22W 9N25W 7N27W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER GUYANA. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER-LEVEL HIGH CENTERED OVER N-CENTRAL MEXICO EXTENDS A RIDGE EWD OVER MOST OF THE GULF REGION AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA GIVING THE AREA NLY UPPER WINDS. A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH IS OVER THE SE CONUS AND THE NE PORTION OF THE GULF. A BAND OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED TSTMS REMAINS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS N OF 26N AHEAD OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOCATED JUST INLAND OVER THE NORTH GULF STATES. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF REMAINS RATHER CLEAR THIS EVENING WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER S FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA STRAITS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER W CUBA. AT THE SURFACE...A RIDGE ANCHORED ON A 1017 MB HIGH SITUATED NEAR 28N86W AT 2100 UTC DOMINATES THE AREA PRODUCING SLY RETURN FLOW OF 10 TO 15 KT OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE GULF. CARIBBEAN SEA... ALL THE ATTENTION REMAINS FOCUSED ON TROPICAL STORM FAY THAT IS RE-ORGANIZING SOUTH OF EASTERN CUBA. NEW WATCHES AND WARNINGS WERE ISSUED FOR CUBA AT 2100 UTC. RAIN BANDS ASSOCIATED WITH FAY ARE AFFECTING HISPANIOLA...E CUBA AND JAMAICA. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. ELONGATED UPPER LOW IS OVER W CUBA NEAR THE ISLE OF YOUTH EXTENDING AN UPPER TROUGH SW TO THE N COAST OF HONDURAS NEAR ROATAN ISLAND. THIS LOW IS FORECAST BY THE COMPUTER MODELS TO MOVE TOWARD THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ON MON. FAY REMAINS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A LOW/MID-LEVEL RIDGE ANCHORED ON A HIGH CURRENTLY OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL BAHAMAS. THIS RIDGE EXTENDS OVER THE EAST AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. THE COLOMBIAN LOW COMBINED WITH THE EPAC ITCZ IS GENERATING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION BETWEEN WESTERN VENEZUELA AND COSTA RICA. ACCORDING TO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK...FAY IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA THIS SUN AND POSSIBLE PART OF MONDAY. ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE W ATLC THIS EVENING IS TROPICAL STORM FAY WITH OUTER RAINBANDS CURRENTLY OVER THE CENTRAL AND SE BAHAMAS. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE E U.S. INTO THE W ATLC WITH THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY N OF THE REGION. AN ELONGATED UPPER LOW IS OVER W CUBA EXTENDING AN UPPER TROUGH NE TO OVER SE FLORIDA. LARGE UPPER LOW IS IN THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 24N58W AND IS PRODUCING STRONG SLY WINDS OVER THE TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC. A BENIGN UPPER LOW IS IN THE E ATLC JUST W OF THE CANARY ISLANDS NEAR 28N20W WITH AN UPPER HIGH TO THE SW NEAR 24N40W. MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE/DRY STABLE AIR IS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THIS UPPER HIGH. A SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1024 MB HIGH SW OF THE AZORES. THE RIDGE EXTENDS WWD AND ENVELOPS THE STATE OF FLORIDA AND THE E GULF WHERE THERE IS A 1017 MB HIGH. $$ GR