000 AXNT20 KNHC 161144 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT SAT AUG 16 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FAY AT 16/1200 UTC IS NEAR 18.8N 72.8W OR ABOUT 30 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI...AND ABOUT 150 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GUANTANAMO CUBA. FAY IS MOVING WEST 12 KT. A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST BY SUNDAY NIGHT. THE CENTER OF FAY WILL MOVE ACROSS HAITI THIS MORNING...AND WILL BE MOVING NEAR THE SOUTHERN COAST OF EASTERN AND CENTRAL CUBA TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NHC PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC AND THE FORECAST/ ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/ WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. FAY MAY WEAKEN SLIGHTLY WHILE MOVING OVER HISPANIOLA THIS MORNING...BUT SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE LATER TODAY AND ON SUNDAY AFTER THE CENTER MOVES BACK OVER WATER. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES/165 KM FROM THE CENTER. TIDES OF 1 TO 2 FEET FEET ABOVE NORMAL CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW. FAY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES OVER HISPANIOLA...EASTERN AND CENTRAL CUBA... JAMAICA...AND THE NORTHERN CAYMAN ISLANDS...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES. THESE RAINS MAY PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. THE CENTER OF FAY IS MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE AREA FROM 16.5N TO 18.5N BETWEEN 71W AND 74W...MOSTLY ON TOP OF THE WATERS SOUTH OF HISPANIOLA BUT STILL TOUCHING PARTS OF THE COAST. ONE BURST OF PRECIPITATION IS ALONG THE SOUTH CENTRAL COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. ANOTHER AREA OF STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 21N TO 22N BETWEEN 71W AND 72W OVER THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 25W/27W SOUTH OF 15N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120 NM TO 240 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE FROM THE EQUATOR AT 40W TO 6N36W 9N28W TO 16N24W. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 23N49W...TO A 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 14N52W...TO 5N57W IN SURINAME. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 240 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 9N56W 14N52W 23N48W. ...THE ITCZ... 16N16W 6N34W 14N52W 8N61W. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ELSEWHERE ALONG THE AFRICA COAST FROM 10N TO 12N EAST OF 17W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA. THE EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE AREA IS FEELING THE EFFECTS OF CYCLONIC FLOW FROM THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA CYCLONIC CENTER NEAR 20N82W. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A CYCLONIC CENTER THAT HAS MOVED FROM EL SALVADOR INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN SOUTH OF MEXICO'S COAST. OTHER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN INTERIOR MEXICO WEST OF 100W IN AREAS OF WEAK CYCLONIC FLOW. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... TROPICAL STORM FAY IS SPREADING NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOSTLY IN THE COASTAL WATERS ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF HISPANIOLA...A LITTLE BIT IN SOUTH CENTRAL COASTAL DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...AND ACROSS THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS. FROM SOUTHWESTERN COASTAL DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TO SOUTHEASTERN HAITI. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA COAST NEAR 25N...ACROSS WESTERN CUBA ALONG 80W/81W...TO A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 20N82W TO NORTHERN COASTAL HONDURAS ALONG 86W...TO A CYCLONIC CENTER THAT HAS MOVED FROM WESTERN EL SALVADOR SIX HOURS AGO...ACROSS SOUTHERN GUATEMALA TO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN JUST SOUTH OF MEXICO. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM ONE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 35N38W TO 32N44W TO 29N52W TO A SECOND CYCLONIC CENTER NEAR 25N55W TO 15N58W. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE FROM 20N TO 30N BETWEEN 50W AND 60W. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 29N67W...ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA...INTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 29N19W JUST WEST OF THE CANARY ISLANDS TO A SMALLER CYCLONIC CENTER NEAR 21N23W TO ANOTHER SMALL CYCLONIC CENTER NEAR 17N32W TO 10N45W. $$ MT