000 AXNT20 KNHC 152359 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT FRI AUG 15 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... TROPICAL STORM FAY IS CENTERED NEAR 18.6. 70.2W OR ABOUT 35 MILES... 55 KM...WEST-NORTHWEST OF SANTO DOMINGO IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND ABOUT 335 MILES...540 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GUANTANAMO CUBA. T.S. FAY IS MOVING WEST AT 12 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. SEE LATEST NHC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. T.S. FAY WAS UPGRADED AT 2100 UTC AFTER NOAA AND AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FOUND A CLOSED CENTER AT 1500 FT FLIGHT-LEVEL. FAY IS OVER THE EASTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND IS FORECAST TO TRAVERSE THE ENTIRE WIDTH OF HISPANIOLA IN LESS THAN 24 HOURS. T.S. FAY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES OVER HISPANIOLA AND EASTERN CUBA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES. THESE RAINS MAY PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES. PRESENTLY NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER THE EASTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM 17N-20N BETWEEN 67W-71W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO FROM 15N-20N BETWEEN 66W-72W. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE E TROPICAL ATLC IS ALONG 25W S OF 15N MOVING W 15 KT. A BROAD AREA OF DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE IS NOTED ON MIMIC-TPW ANIMATION. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS FROM 13N-15N BETWEEN 21W-23W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-12N BETWEEN 21W-27W. TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC IS ALONG 49W/50W S OF 20N MOVING W 15 KT. A 1010 MB LOW IS CENTERED ON THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 15N50W. A WELL DEFINED INVERTED-V LOW CLOUD PATTERN IS ALSO NOTED. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 15N-18N BETWEEN 47W-50W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FURTHER N FROM 18N-22N BETWEEN 44W-47W. ...THE ITCZ... THE ITCZ IS CENTERED ALONG 15N16W 6N34W 15N50W 9N61W. BESIDES THE CONVECTION MENTIONED IN THE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION... SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-10N BETWEEN 27W-31W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-7N BETWEEN 31W-34W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A STATIONARY FRONTAL SYSTEM EXTENDS FROM S GEORGIA TO CENTRAL TEXAS. PREFRONTAL ACTIVITY IS PRODUCING ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION OVER THE N GULF OF MEXICO N OF 26N. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE S GULF S OF 25N EXCEPT FOR WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION OVER THE ERN BAY OF CAMPECHE FROM 18N-20N BETWEEN 90W-92W. 5-10 KT SLY SURFACE WINDS ARE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER N TEXAS NEAR 27N106W WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING E TO CENTRAL FLORIDA. CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE GULF N OF 21N. EXPECT CONTINUED FRONTAL ACTIVITY TO PRODUCE CONVECTION OVER THE N GULF STATES N OF 26N DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ALSO EXPECT MORE CONVECTION OVER THE WRN BAY OF CAMPECHE. CARIBBEAN SEA... T.S. FAY IS TRAVERSING HISPANIOLA. SEE ABOVE. ELSEWHERE... MODERATE TO FRESH EASTERLY TRADEWINDS ARE BLOWING ACROSS THE BASIN. BESIDES THE CONVECTION MENTIONED IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION...ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA FROM 9N-11N BETWEEN 75W-77W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS MOSTLY INLAND OVER PANAMA AND COSTA RICA FROM 7N-11N BETWEEN 76W-86W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR HISPANIOLA AT 22N70W. ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN BETWEEN E OF 80W. CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER S AMERICA AND OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BETWEEN 65W-75W. EXPECT... CONVECTION OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS DUE TO THE TROPICAL WAVE. ALSO EXPECT MORE CONVECTION OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A DOMINATE 1028 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 37N33W. A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SW TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA NEAR 23N80W. PREFRONTAL ACTIVITY IS PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE W ATLANTIC N OF 28N AND W OF 75W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 25N54W. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 32N42W. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS OVER THE TROPICAL E ATLANTIC NEAR 22N35W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE CANARY ISLANDS NEAR 29N17W. EXPECT THE TROPICAL WAVES AND T.S. FAY TO BE THE PRIMARY WEATHER PRODUCERS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. $$ FORMOSA