000
AXNT20 KNHC 151059
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT FRI AUG 15 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER 
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 06000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE HAS 
CONTINUED TO MOVE WESTWARD ABOUT 15 MPH. IT IS LOCATED OVER THE 
VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO. THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO PRODUCE 
A CONCENTRATED AREA OF STRONG THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY BUT DOES NOT 
APPEAR TO HAVE A WELL-DEFINED CENTER OF CIRCULATION AT THE 
SURFACE YET. UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT
AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION MAY FORM AT ANY TIME DURING THE NEXT 
DAY OR SO AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD 
NEAR PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA. HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS ARE 
LIKELY ACROSS PARTS OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...AND 
HISPANIOLA TODAY AND TONIGHT...AND ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN 
CUBA...THE TURKS AND CAICOS...AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS ON 
SATURDAY. EVERYONE WHO IS INTERESTED IN THESE AREAS SHOULD 
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE 
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THIS 
SYSTEM LATER TODAY IF NECESSARY.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
  
AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE CURVES FROM 17N20W TO 12N21W...
AND SOUTHWARD ALONG 21W/22W. A 1012 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS 
ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 10N. ISOLATED STRONG SHOWERS AND 
THUNDERSTORMS IN CLUSTERS WITHIN 60 NM TO 120 NM ON EITHER
SIDE OF 6N27W 10N23W 13N21W 15N18W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE CURVES FROM 20N45W TO 16N47W...
AND SOUTHWARD ALONG 47W. IT IS MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. 
A 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 12N. 
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FROM 16N TO 20N BETWEEN 45W AND 49W. ANY DEVELOPMENT IN ORDER
TO BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR
DURING THE SYSTEM'S WESTWARD MOVEMENT.

...THE ITCZ...
14N17W 9N23W 8N30W 12N47W 9N50W 9N60W. STRONG SHOWERS AND 
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 9N TO 11N BETWEEN 34W AND 35W.
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE 
ELSEWHERE FROM 5N TO 10N BETWEEN AFRICA AND SOUTH AMERICA.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 31N80W INTO THE 
NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO NEAR SOUTHERN LOUISIANA TOWARD THE 
UPPER/MIDDLE TEXAS COAST. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE 
THUNDERSTORMS ARE NORTH OF 27N FROM FLORIDA TO THE TEXAS COAST.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE CENTRAL GULF WATERS FROM EAST TO 
WEST. 

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MOVED WESTWARD
DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS...NOW COVERING
PUERTO RICO AND SURROUNDING ISLANDS AND WATERS TO THE NORTHEAST
OF PUERTO RICO. THE PRECIPITATION EXTENDS AS FAR AS 16N SOUTH OF 
PUERTO RICO BETWEEN 65W AND 68W. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH 
EXTENDS FROM A CYCLONIC CENTER NEAR 21N79W IN COASTAL CUBA ON 
THE CARIBBEAN SEA SIDE TO CENTRAL INTERIOR HONDURAS...TO THE 
EASTERN EDGE OF THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC IN MEXICO... 
NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS INTERIOR MEXICO TO 21N103W. MUCH OF
THE PRECIPITATION FROM SIX HOURS AGO HAS DIMINISHED AND/OR 
DISAPPEARED. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE 
THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN BELIZE...THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF
OF MEXICO...AND THE WESTERN MEXICO COAST FROM 22N TO 25N.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE NOTEWORTHY FEATURE HERE IS A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH 
THAT EXTENDS FROM ONE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 32N38W
TO A SECOND CYCLONIC CENTER NEAR 26N52W TO 19N56W. ISOLATED 
MODERATE SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM TO 240 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 
33N37W 31N43W 29N49W 23N56W. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 
33N46W TO 29N63W...ACROSS THE BAHAMAS NEAR 25N...INTO THE 
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS NEAR 21N86W.

$$
MT