000 AXNT20 KNHC 150013 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT THU AUG 14 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN ALONG 64W WITH A WEAK 1011 MB LOW ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 18N MOVING W 10-15 KT. A NOAA AIRCRAFT AND AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT DID NOT FIND A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION AT FLIGHT LEVEL THUS THE SYSTEM WAS NOT UPGRADED. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS FROM 17N-19N BETWEEN 61W-64W. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH POTENTIAL FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWEST TOWARDS THE TURK AND CAICOS...AND SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC IS TILTED FROM 19N42W TO A 1009 MB LOW NEAR 12N45W TO 8N47W MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS E OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 16N-18N BETWEEN 40W-42W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO FROM 9N-16N BETWEEN 44W-48W. ...THE ITCZ... THE ITCZ IS CENTERED ALONG 13N16W 9N20W 8N30W 12N45W 9N50W 9N60W. A 1009 MB LOW IS JUST E OF DAKAR SENEGAL NEAR 15N16W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS SW OF THIS LOW CENTER ALONG THE COAST FROM 12N-14N BETWEEN 17W-19W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FURTHER W FROM 7N-10N BETWEEN 20W-24W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-11N BETWEEN 27W-36W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A STATIONARY FRONTAL SYSTEM EXTENDS FROM S GEORGIA TO E TEXAS. PREFRONTAL ACTIVITY IS PRODUCING ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION OVER THE N GULF OF MEXICO N OF 26N AND OVER FLORIDA. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE S GULF S OF 25N EXCEPT FOR SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION OVER THE ERN BAY OF CAMPECHE FROM 19N-21N BETWEEN 89W-92W. 5-10 KT SLY SURFACE WINDS ARE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER N TEXAS NEAR 28N103W WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING E TO S FLORIDA. CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE N GULF N OF 25N. EXPECT CONTINUED FRONTAL ACTIVITY TO PRODUCE CONVECTION OVER THE N GULF STATES N OF 26N DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ALSO EXPECT MORE CONVECTION OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. CARIBBEAN SEA... A TROPICAL WAVE IS TRAVERSING THE E CARIBBEAN. SEE ABOVE. MODERATE TO FRESH EASTERLY TRADEWINDS ARE BLOWING ACROSS THE BASIN WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS OFF THE NRN COLOMBIAN COAST. BESIDES THE CONVECTION MENTIONED IN THE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER NW VENEZUELA...AND N COLOMBIA FROM 8N-12N BETWEEN 70W-77W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA FROM WRN NICARAGUA TO S MEXICO FROM 12N-18N BETWEEN 86W-94W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER E CUBA NEAR 20N76W. CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN BETWEEN 70W-85W. CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER S AMERICA AND OVER THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 75W. MORE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS N OF 15N AND E OF 66W. EXPECT... CONVECTION OVER THE E CARIBBEAN DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS DUE TO THE TROPICAL WAVE. ALSO EXPECT MORE CONVECTION OVER NRN SOUTH AMERICA AND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A DOMINATE 1028 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 37N35W. A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SW TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA NEAR 23N80W. PREFRONTAL ACTIVITY IS PRODUCING ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION OVER THE W ATLANTIC N OF 28N AND W OF 72W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC S OF 26N AND W OF 68W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 27N50W. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 32N38W. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS OVER THE TROPICAL E ATLANTIC NEAR 20N32W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE CANARY ISLANDS NEAR 29N14W. EXPECT THE TROPICAL WAVES TO BE THE PRIMARY WEATHER PRODUCERS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ALSO EXPECT PREFRONTAL ACTIVITY OVER THE W ATLANTIC N OF 28N AND W OF 75W. $$ FORMOSA