000 AXNT20 KNHC 141048 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT THU AUG 14 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE W TROPICAL ATLANTIC EXTENDING FROM 22N60W THROUGH A 1009 MB LOW NEAR 16N61W TO 8N60W MOVING WNW 10-15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NORTH OF THE LOW CENTER FROM 17N-21N BETWEEN 58W-62W. UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO GRADUALLY BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER THE DAY OR SO. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 42W/43W S OF 20N MOVING W NEAR 20 KT. A 1009 MB LOW IS EMBEDDED ON THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 12N43W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 12N-16N BETWEEN 40W-45W. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 89W S OF 18N ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA MOVING W 15-20 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ACROSS WRN HONDURAS...EL SALVADOR...BELIZE AND GUATEMALA FROM 12N-17N BETWEEN 87W-91W. ...THE ITCZ... THE ITCZ IS CENTERED ALONG 11N15W 8N22W 14N34W 13N40W 10N44W 11N58W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-12N BETWEEN 22W-27W AND LIKELY WEST OF THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE EMERGING OFF THE W AFRICAN COAST. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-10N BETWEEN 32W-38W AND FROM 7N-10N BETWEEN 45W-52W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN BROAD UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE SE CONUS WITH ASSOCIATED STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS SRN GEORGIA TO SRN LOUISIANA INTO SE TEXAS PARALLELING THE NRN GULF COAST. A 1009 MB LOW IS ALONG THE BOUNDARY NEAR COLUMBUS GEORGIA. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE IN THE GULF WATERS FROM 26N-30N E OF 92W TO INLAND ACROSS NRN FLORIDA. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF ANCHORED OVER NRN MEXICO GIVING THE GULF NE UPPER FLOW N OF 26N AND E UPPER FLOW S OF 26N. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE PERSISTS OVER THE SE GULF ANCHORED ON A 1016 MB HIGH CENTERED OVER WRN CUBA. SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW IS ACROSS THE WRN GULF W OF 88W. LIGHT WINDS ARE OBSERVED IN THE E GULF E OF 88W. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO COVERS THE NW CARIBBEAN WITH E-NE UPPER FLOW. AN UPPER LOW IS OVER ERN CUBA EXTENDING TROUGHING SW TO THE NICARAGUA/HONDURAS BORDER. UPPER RIDGING IS ALONG NRN SOUTH AMERICA COVERING THE SOUTH CARIBBEAN S OF 14N BETWEEN THE LESSER ANTILLES AND PANAMA. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM 8N-10N BETWEEN 76W-79W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS N OF 15N PRECEDING THE TROPICAL WAVE AND ASSOCIATED LOW E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS TO TRAVERSE ACROSS THE NRN LEEWARD ISLANDS AND VIRGIN ISLANDS THU WHILE AFFECTING PUERTO RICO BY EARLY FRI. OTHERWISE THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN REMAINS FAIRLY TRANQUIL WITH MODERATE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE AREA. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE SE CONUS EXTENDING INTO THE FAR W ATLC WITH A 996 MB SURFACE LOW OFFSHORE OF NORTH CAROLINA NEAR 36N72W. A STATIONARY FRONT ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N81W ACROSS SRN GEORGIA AND ALABAMA GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSTMS 120 NM E OF THE FRONT ALONG A LINE FROM 32N74W TO NEAR 29N80W. AN UPPER LOW OVER ERN CUBA COVERS THE AREA S OF 26N BETWEEN 65W-80W. THIS UPPER LOW EXHIBITS A MODERATELY DRY AIR MASS AND IS KEEPING SKIES CLEAR ACROSS THE GREATER ANTILLES AND THE BAHAMA ISLANDS. A COUPLE OF BENIGN UPPER LOWS ARE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE ERN ATLC WITH THE FIRST EAST OF THE CANARY ISLANDS NEAR 28N13W TO A SECOND NEAR 30N36W. THESE UPPER LOWS ARE EMBEDDED WITHIN MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR...THUS FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE ERN ATLC E OF 40W. A THIRD UPPER LOW NEAR 29N48W IS ADVECTING MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE NORTHWARD AND PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLE EMBEDDED TSTMS FROM 26N-31N BETWEEN 42W-50W. A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1026 MB HIGH N OF THE REGION NEAR 36N38W AND EXTENDS SW TO E OF THE BAHAMA ISLANDS. $$ HUFFMAN