000 AXNT20 KNHC 140602 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT THU AUG 14 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE W TROPICAL ATLANTIC EXTENDING FROM 22N59W THROUGH A 1010 MB LOW NEAR 16N60W TO 8N59W MOVING WNW 10-15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WELL NORTH OF THE LOW CENTER FROM 17N-20N BETWEEN 57W-61W. UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO GRADUALLY BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 39W/40W S OF 20N MOVING W 15-20 KT. A 1009 MB LOW IS EMBEDDED ON THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 12N40W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 13N-17N BETWEEN 39W-43W. TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE W CARIBBEAN ALONG 88W S OF 18N MOVING W 15-20 KT. MID LEVEL ROTATION IS OBSERVED INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA WITH SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ACROSS NW NICARAGUA...WRN HONDURAS...BELIZE AND GUATEMALA FROM 12N-17N BETWEEN 86W-91W. ...THE ITCZ... THE ITCZ IS CENTERED ALONG 11N15W 9N20W 13N26W 13N38W 11N41W 9N45W 12N58W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-12N BETWEEN 19W-26W AND LIKELY WEST OF THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE EMERGING OFF THE W AFRICAN COAST. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-9N BETWEEN 33W-37W AND FROM 5N-9N BETWEEN 41W-46W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM OF A LINE FROM 8N48W TO 9N56W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE SE CONUS WITH ASSOCIATED STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING FROM A 1002 MB LOW OFFSHORE OF SOUTH CAROLINA IN THE W ATLC ACROSS SRN GEORGIA TO SRN LOUISIANA INTO E TEXAS. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSTMS ARE IN THE GULF WATERS FROM 26N-29N E OF 88W TO INLAND ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF ANCHORED OVER THE BIG BEND AREA OF TEXAS GIVING THE GULF NE UPPER FLOW N OF 25N AND E UPPER FLOW S OF 25N. A SURFACE RIDGE PERSISTS OVER THE SE GULF AND EXTENDS WNW TO NEAR CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS PROVIDING RETURN FLOW CONSISTING OF MODERATE/ STRONG S TO SW WINDS ACROSS THE E GULF AND LIGHT/MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS OVER THE W GULF. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO COVERS THE NW CARIBBEAN WITH EASTERLY UPPER FLOW. AN UPPER LOW IS OVER ERN CUBA EXTENDING TROUGHING SW TO THE NICARAGUA/HONDURAS BORDER. UPPER RIDGING IS ALONG NRN SOUTH AMERICA COVERING THE SOUTH CARIBBEAN S OF 14N BETWEEN THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AND THE COAST OF SRN CENTRAL AMERICA. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM 9N-13N BETWEEN 74W-81W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE SE CARIBBEAN FROM 10N-14N BETWEEN 64W-66W AND MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS N OF 15N PRECEDING THE TROPICAL WAVE AND ASSOCIATED LOW E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. OTHERWISE THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN REMAINS FAIRLY TRANQUIL WITH MODERATE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE AREA. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE SE CONUS EXTENDING INTO THE FAR W ATLC WITH A PAIR OF SURFACE LOWS OFFSHORE OF THE CAROLINAS. A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM A 1002 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 33N78W WSW ACROSS SRN GEORGIA AND ALABAMA GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS 90 TO 120 NM E OF THE FRONT ALONG A LINE FROM 32N76W TO NEAR DAYTONA BEACH FLORIDA AND INTO THE ERN GULF OF MEXICO. AN UPPER LOW OVER ERN CUBA COVERS THE AREA S OF 25N BETWEEN 60W-80W. THIS UPPER LOW IS KEEPING SKIES RELATIVELY CLEAR ACROSS THE GREATER ANTILLES AND THE BAHAMA ISLANDS TONIGHT. A COUPLE OF BENIGN UPPER LOWS ARE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC WITH THE FIRST EAST OF THE CANARY ISLANDS NEAR 28N13W TO A SECOND NEAR 30N35W. THESE UPPER LOWS ARE EMBEDDED WITHIN MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR...THUS FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE ERN ATLC E OF 40W. A THIRD UPPER LOW NEAR 29N49W IS ADVECTING MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE NORTHWARD THAT BROKE AWAY FROM THE PASSING TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 60W. SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLE EMBEDDED TSTMS ARE FROM 25N-31N BETWEEN 44W-48W. A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1027 MB HIGH N OF THE REGION NEAR 36N38W AND EXTENDS SW TO E OF THE BAHAMA ISLANDS. $$ HUFFMAN