000 AXNT20 KNHC 130603 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT WED AUG 13 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE W TROPICAL ATLANTIC ALONG 54W/55W S OF 20N OR ABOUT 330 NM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES WITH A 1008 MB LOW ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 13N MOVING W 10-15 KT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF THE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH A MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION FROM 14N-19N BETWEEN 51W-57W. A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 30W/31W S OF 21N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOWER PRESSURE STRETCHES FROM ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 14N SW TO NEAR 10N37W. THE MIMIC-TPW SHOWS A BROAD AREA OF DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE SURROUNDING THIS WAVE AND THE 1009 MB LOW EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS MOSTLY W OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 15N-17N BETWEEN 31W-35W. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 80W S OF 20N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. WAVE POSITION IS BASED ON CONTINUITY AS HIGH CLOUDS COVER THE WRN CARIBBEAN MAKING THE LOW-LEVEL SATELLITE SIGNATURE DIFFICULT TO TRACK. THE MIMIC-TPW SHOWS A LOW AMPLITUDE AREA OF DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE COVERING THE SW CARIBBEAN MAINLY S OF 15N. NO DEEP CONVECTION OR SHOWER ACTIVITY IS OBSERVED. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 91W S OF 21N MOVING W NEAR 20 KT. A MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS OBSERVED IN THE E PACIFIC REGION WITH SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ACROSS GUATEMALA AND WRN HONDURAS. ...THE ITCZ... THE ITCZ IS CENTERED ALONG 11N16W 14N29W 10N36W 9N40W 13N53W 12N56W ACROSS THE NRN VENEZUELA INTO THE SW CARIBBEAN ACROSS COSTA RICA INTO THE E PACIFIC REGION. A 1009 MB LOW IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE AXIS NEAR 12N35W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF THE LOW. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS MOVING OFF THE W AFRICAN COAST FROM 7N-11N BETWEEN 13W-22W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM OF A LINE FROM 7N37W TO 10N44W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE N GULF COAST ANCHORED OVER NRN MEXICO AND COVERS THE ENTIRE GULF AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE SE CONUS ALONG WITH UPPER DIFFLUENCE AHEAD OF THE TROUGH ACROSS THE NE GULF E OF 91W IS PRODUCING A BAND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS N OF 28N BETWEEN BATON ROUGE LOUISIANA AND TALLAHASSEE FLORIDA. A SURFACE RIDGE FROM THE W ATLC EXTENDS ACROSS CUBA...THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND OVER THE ERN HALF OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS IS PRODUCING RETURN FLOW CONSISTING OF MODERATE/STRONG S TO SW WINDS ACROSS THE W GULF AND MODERATE W WINDS OVER THE E GULF. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS CONTINUES TO SPILL ACROSS THE GULF N OF 23N... OTHERWISE THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF REMAINS TRANQUIL TONIGHT. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO COVERS THE NW CARIBBEAN WITH NE UPPER FLOW. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE IS ANCHORED OVER NRN COLOMBIA COVERING THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN S OF JAMAICA AND W OF 65W. AN UPPER LOW IS N OF ERN HISPANIOLA WHICH EXTENDS TROUGHING INTO THE NE CARIBBEAN NEAR 16N66W. A MID LEVEL LOW IS W OF THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 80W NEAR 14N81W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 12N-17N BETWEEN 77W-84W. AN UPPER DIFFLUENT PATTERN IS PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA FROM 9N-16N BETWEEN 82W-86W. OTHERWISE THIN HIGH CLOUDS COVER MOST OF THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH MODERATE/STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE BASIN. ATLANTIC OCEAN... UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS EWD OVER THE W ATLC W OF 70W WITH A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING S THROUGH 32N65W TO E OF THE BAHAMAS NEAR 27N73W. A WEAK UPPER HIGH IS LOCATED NEAR 29N61W WITH AN UPPER LOW N OF ERN HISPANIOLA NEAR 20N69W. THIS UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLE EMBEDDED ISOLATED TSTMS OVER THE W ATLC WITHIN 120 NM OF LINE FROM 32N62W SW TO 27N72W. A SERIES OF BENIGN UPPER LOWS IS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND ERN ATLC WITH THE FIRST INLAND OVER WESTERN SAHARA NEAR 27N12W TO A SECOND NEAR 29N32W TO A THIRD NEAR 30N51W. THESE UPPER LOWS ARE EMBEDDED WITHIN MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR...THUS FAIR WEATHER CONTINUES ACROSS THE ATLC E OF 60W. A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1026 MB HIGH N OF THE REGION NEAR 36N39W AND EXTENDS SW ACROSS THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLAND AND CUBA. $$ HUFFMAN