000 AXNT20 KNHC 102350 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT SUN AUG 10 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE THAT IS ALONG 42W/44W SOUTH OF 18N. THE LOW CENTER IS NEAR 11N. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 8N TO 16N BETWEEN 38W AND 47W. ASSOCIATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS BEEN INCREASING SLOWLY DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS...AND CONDITIONS APPEAR SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD 15 TO 20 MPH. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 19W/20W SOUTH OF 16N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS FROM 11N TO 14N BETWEEN THE COAST OF AFRICA AND 20W. THIS SYSTEM HAS SOME POTENTIAL FOR SLOW DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH. A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE WAS ALONG 64W/65W SOUTH OF 20N MOVING WEST 15 KT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN A FEW CELLS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG NORTH CENTRAL COASTAL PUERTO RICO...AND MAY OR MAY NOT BE RELATED TO THE WAVE. LOW LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW...AFTERNOON HEATING...AND POSSIBLE UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT WIND FLOW ALSO MAY AIDING THE PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT. A SECOND CARIBBEAN SEA WAVE IS ALONG 74W/75W SOUTH OF 20N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. THIS WAVE IS MOVING TOWARD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW THAT IS ASSOCIATED WITH A BAHAMAS-TO- NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROUGH. THE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS THAT HAVE DEVELOPED FROM THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TO BOTH ENDS OF CUBA MAY BE MORE RELATED TO THE CYCLONIC FLOW OF THE TROUGH THAN TO THE TROPICAL WAVE. ...THE ITCZ... 12N16W 11N30W 13N40W 7N51W 8N60W. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 10N TO 13N BETWEEN 25W AND 27W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS NORTH OF 7N16W 1N36W TO 10N... AND FROM 10N TO 13N BETWEEN 30W AND 36W...AND FROM 7N TO 10N BETWEEN 50W AND 56W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ENTERS THE AREA ON TOP OF SOUTH FLORIDA TO JUST NORTH OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA COASTAL SECTIONS FROM JUST NORTHEAST OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE TO THE FLORIDA KEYS. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE REST OF THE GULF WATERS. AN UPPER LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH COVERS INTERIOR MEXICO...SETTING OF SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF 20N WEST OF 100W. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE BAHAMAS NEAR 25N76W ACROSS CUBA TO 16N84W IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS STRETCH FROM THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TO WESTERN CUBA. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES FROM THE ATLANTIC THROUGH 24N62W TOWARD PUERTO RICO NEAR 18N66W. SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS EXTEND FROM THE NORTH CENTRAL COAST OF PUERTO RICO TO HISPANIOLA AT THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN A 45 NM RADIUS OF 10N75W IN NORTHERN COLOMBIA...AND FROM 8N TO 11N BETWEEN 79W AND 81W ALONG THE PANAMA COAST. THESE AREAS OF STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 180 NM TO THE NORTH OF THE ITCZ...WITH A MIDDLE LEVEL TROUGH UNDER UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N72W TO SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE TO THE EAST OF THE FRONT NORTH OF 26N BETWEEN 63W AND 74W. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 31N59W TO 26N59W TO 24N62W TOWARD PUERTO RICO NEAR 18N66W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 28N TO 32N BETWEEN 54W AND 59W. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 27N50W. $$ MT