000 AXNT20 KNHC 081032 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT FRI AUG 08 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A LOW AMPLITUDE TROPICAL WAVE IS W OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS ALONG 28W MOVING W 10-15 KT. 850 MB SATELLITE DERIVED VORTICITY AND THE MIMIC-TPW FROM CIMSS ALSO SUPPORT THE WAVE POSITION. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS ABOVE THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 13N30W MASKING THE WAVE LOW LEVEL SIGNATURE. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOSTLY ALONG THE ITCZ. A HIGH AMPLITUDE TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 47W S OF 25N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. THE WAVE CONTINUES TO SHOW A WELL DEFINED INVERTED-V CURVATURE ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. NO DEEP CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE. LOW/MID CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ON EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE AXIS. A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 58W IS S OF 17N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. A MARKED WIND SHIFT IS NOTED BY BUOY DATA ALONG THE WAVE AXIS. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS N OF THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 21N57W MASKING THE WAVE LOW LEVEL SIGNATURE. SCATTERED SHOWERS EXTEND 300 NM W OF THE WAVE AXIS AND ARE ALREADY OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 81W S OF 20N MOVING W 10-15 KT. THE SAHARAN AIR LAYER FROM CIMSS REVEALS THAT THE WAVE IS AT THE LEADING EDGE OF A SURGE OF AFRICAN DUST WHICH COVERS THE E CARIBBEAN AND N OF THE GREATER ANTILLES. THE WAVE COUPLED WITH UPPER DIFFLUENCE FROM AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR W CUBA AT 22N83W IS ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER JAMAICA AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA FROM 11N-14N BETWEEN 81W-87W. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 16N16W 12N27W 8N30W 10N40W 10N62W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF W AFRICA FROM 6N-10N BETWEEN 13W-17W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-10N BETWEEN 17W-20W...AND FROM 5N-8N BETWEEN 35W-42W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-10N BETWEEN 30W-35W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM 6N-10N BETWEEN 42W-60W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A WEAK 1016 MB HIGH IS OVER THE NW GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 27N92W PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER AND 5-10 KT ANTICYCLONIC SURFACE WINDS. ELSEWHERE...A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE NE GULF FROM N FLORIDA TO LOUISIANA PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS N OF 29N AND E OF 90W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE W GULF NEAR TAMPICO MEXICO FROM 20N-23N BETWEEN 96W-99W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... A RIDGE IS OVER N GULF OF MEXICO N OF 26N. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER W CUBA NEAR 22N83W. CYCLONIC UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS OVER THE SE GULF S OF 25N AND E OF 90W. CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE COVERS THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO. EXPECT...CONTINUED SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NE GULF OF MEXICO...AND OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CARIBBEAN SEA... A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN SEA AND ANOTHER IS APPROACHING THE LESSER ANTILLES. SEE ABOVE. FRESH TRADEWINDS OF 20-25 KT ARE FOUND OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. THE SAHARAN AIR LAYER FROM CIMSS ALSO CONFIRMS THE PRESENCE OF AFRICAN DUST OVER THE CARIBBEAN AND THE TROPICAL N ATLC E OF 81W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LOW IS CENTERED OVER CUBA AT 22N83W. CYCLONIC UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN GULF N OF 15N BETWEEN 76W-91W. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN CENTERED NEAR 14N72W. EXPECT...THE TROPICAL WAVE TO MOVE W WITH CONVECTION TO THE W CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A WEAK 1013 MB LOW IS LOCATED OVER THE BAHAMAS NEAR 26N77W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 28N76W TO THE LOW CENTER TO 25N78W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS. A 1021 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 31N42W PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER. A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SW TO 25N68W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 27N74W. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC NEAR 21N57W. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC NEAR 18N41W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 29N42W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 33N24W. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE TROPICAL E ATLANTIC NEAR 13N30W. EXPECT...THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 47W TO BE A GOOD SOURCE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. $$ FORMOSA