000 AXNT20 KNHC 080611 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT FRI AUG 08 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A LOW AMPLITUDE TROPICAL WAVE IS JUST W OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS ALONG 27W MOVING W 10-15 KT. 850 MB SATELLITE DERIVED VORTICITY AND THE MIMIC-TPW FROM CIMSS ALSO SUPPORT THE WAVE POSITION. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS ABOVE THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 14N28W MASKING THE WAVE LOW LEVEL SIGNATURE. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOSTLY ALONG THE ITCZ. A HIGH AMPLITUDE TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 46W S OF 25N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. THE WAVE CONTINUES TO SHOW A WELL DEFINED INVERTED-V CURVATURE ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. NO DEEP CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE. MAINLY LOW/MID CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE AXIS. A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 57W IS S OF 17N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. A MARKED WIND SHIFT IS NOTED BY BUOY DATA ALONG THE WAVE AXIS. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS N OF THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 20N56W MASKING THE WAVE LOW LEVEL SIGNATURE. SCATTERED SHOWERS EXTEND 300 NM W OF THE WAVE AXIS AND ARE ALREADY OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 80W S OF 20N MOVING W 10-15 KT. THE SAHARAN AIR LAYER FROM CIMSS REVEALS THAT THE WAVE IS AT THE LEADING EDGE OF A SURGE OF AFRICAN DUST WHICH COVERS THE E CARIBBEAN AND N OF THE GREATER ANTILLES MOVING INTO THE TURKS AND CAICOS. THE WAVE COUPLED WITH UPPER DIFFLUENCE FROM AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR W CUBA AT 21N83W IS ENHANCING CONVECTION OVER JAMAICA AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA FROM 7N-13N BETWEEN 81W-87W. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 13N16W 12N27W 9N30W 12N41W 9N50W 9N62W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF W AFRICA FROM 16N-19N BETWEEN 15W-18W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FURTHER S FROM 7N-10N BETWEEN 13W-20W...AND FROM 7N-10N BETWEEN 26W-30W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-10N BETWEEN 30W-35W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM 6N-10N BETWEEN 45W-60W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A WEAK 1016 MB HIGH IS OVER THE NW GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 28N92W PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER AND 5-10 KT ANTICYCLONIC SURFACE WINDS. ELSEWHERE...AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS OVER THE NE GULF FROM N FLORIDA TO LOUISIANA PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 29N AND E OF 90W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA FROM 27N-29N BETWEEN 80W-82W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ARE OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE FROM 20N-21N BETWEEN 95W-96W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FURTHER S OVER S MEXICO FROM 16N-18N BETWEEN 93W-95W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... A RIDGE IS OVER N GULF OF MEXICO N OF 26N. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER W CUBA NEAR 21N83W. CYCLONIC UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS OVER THE SE GULF S OF 25N AND E OF 90W. CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE COVERS THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO. EXPECT...CONTINUED SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NE GULF OF MEXICO...AND OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CARIBBEAN SEA... A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN SEA. SEE ABOVE. FRESH TRADEWINDS OF 20-25 KT ARE FOUND OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. THE SAHARAN AIR LAYER FROM CIMSS ALSO CONFIRMS THE PRESENCE OF AFRICAN DUST OVER THE CARIBBEAN AND THE TROPICAL N ATLC E OF 80W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LOW IS CENTERED OVER CUBA AT 21N83W. CYCLONIC UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN GULF N OF 15N BETWEEN 76W-91W. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN CENTERED NEAR 14N72W. EXPECT...THE TROPICAL WAVE TO MOVE W WITH CONVECTION TO THE W CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A WEAK 1012 MB LOW IS LOCATED OVER THE BAHAMAS NEAR 25N76W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 28N76W TO THE LOW CENTER TO 23N77W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS. A 1022 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 32N41W PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER. A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SW TO 25N70W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 27N74W. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC NEAR 20N56W. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC NEAR 18N41W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 29N42W. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 33N24W. EXPECT...THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 46W TO BE A GOOD SOURCE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. $$ FORMOSA