000 AXNT20 KNHC 071042 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT THU AUG 07 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A 1009 MB LOW IS LOCATED E OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS NEAR 17N20W MOVING SW AT 15 KT. PLACEMENT OF THE LOW IS BASED ON SURFACE AND SHIP OBSERVATIONS. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED. A HIGH AMPLITUDE TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 42W SOUTH OF 21N MOVING W AT 15 KT. SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS AN INVERTED-V PATTERN...AND THE SSMI-DERIVED TPW PRODUCT FROM CIMSS SHOWS A NORTH-SOUTH MOISTURE MAXIMUM ALONG THE WAVE AXIS. NO DEEP CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE. MAINLY LOW/MID CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ON EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE AXIS. A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 57W S OF 18N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. THIS IS A LOW AMPLITUDE WAVE WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS NEAR THE ITCZ. A HIGH AMPLITUDE TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM E CUBA TO N COLOMBIA ALONG 77W MOVING WEST AROUND 15 KT. THE WAVE SHOWS UP VERY WELL ON THE MIMIC-TPW PRODUCT WHERE A GOOD SURGE OF MOISTURE IS NOTED. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 13N16W 11N20W 13N35W 9N50W 9N62W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 8N-12N BETWEEN 23W-28W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-11N BETWEEN 38W-40W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-10N BETWEEN 40W-60W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A WEAK 1018 MB HIGH IS OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 29N92W PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER AND 5-10 KT ANTICYCLONIC SURFACE WINDS. ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE SE GULF OF MEXICO FROM 23N-26N BETWEEN 80W-88W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE FROM 17N-20N BETWEEN 94W-96W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A TINY UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER SE LOUISIANA NEAR 30N90W. A RIDGE IS OVER N FLORIDA N OF 25N AND E OF 85W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER W CUBA NEAR 22N81W. CYCLONIC UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS OVER THE SE GULF S OF 25N AND E OF 90W. CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE COVERS THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO. EXPECT...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NE GULF OF MEXICO...AND OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CARIBBEAN SEA... A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA. SEE ABOVE. A 1007 MB LOW IS CENTERED INLAND OVER N COLOMBIA NEAR 9N77W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION ARE OVER N COLOMBIA...PANAMA...AND COSTA RICA FROM 5N-11N BETWEEN 79W-83W. FRESH TRADEWINDS OF 20-25 KT ARE FOUND OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. THE SAHARAN AIR LAYER FROM CIMSS ALSO CONFIRMS THE PRESENCE OF AFRICAN DUST OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN AND THE TROPICAL N ATLC. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LOW IS CENTERED OVER CUBA AT 22N81W. CYCLONIC UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN GULF N OF 15N AND W OF 75W. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS OVER E CARIBBEAN CENTERED NEAR 13N66W. EXPECT...THE TROPICAL WAVE TO MOVE W WITH CONVECTION TO THE W CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1019 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 31N46W PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER. A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SW TO 24N66W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE BAHAMAS FROM 27N75W TO 22N77W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM 23N-26N BETWEEN 72W-80W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 31N70W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE BAHAMAS NEAR 24N75W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 18N56W. DIFFLUENCE N OF THE CENTER IS PRODUCING WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 20N-25N BETWEEN 50W-56W. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 19N34W. EXPECT...THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 42W TO BE A GOOD SOURCE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. $$ FORMOSA