000 AXNT20 KNHC 061757 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT WED AUG 06 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... NONE. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 35W/36W SOUTH OF 17N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. NO STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION ACCOMPANIES THIS WAVE. IT IS MARKED QUITE EASILY IN THE LOW CLOUD FIELD ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 53W/54W SOUTH OF 19N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. NO PRECIPITATION ACCOMPANIES THIS WAVE. A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 72W/73W SOUTH OF 20N MOVING WEST 15 KT. THIS WAVE IS PASSING ON TOP OF HAITI AT THE NORTHERN END AND MOVING FROM VENEZUELA INTO COLOMBIA AT THE SOUTHERN END. LINES OF LOW CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 300 NM TO THE EAST OF THE WAVE. A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 95W/96W EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...ACROSS MEXICO...INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. BROAD UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW ACCOMPANIES A 23N100W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IN INTERIOR MEXICO. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE BETWEEN 24N97W 21N95W 19N94W AND THE MEXICO COAST. ...THE ITCZ... 12N16W 11N20W 13N28W 9N45W 10N61W. CLOUDS FROM 8N TO 13N BETWEEN 18W AND 24W ARE SWIRLING AROUND WHAT PROBABLY WILL BE THE NEXT ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE FOR THE FUTURE. SCATTERED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 10N TO 12N BETWEEN 21W AND 23W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 30 NM TO 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 9N28W 8N42W 9N56W 10N61W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... SCATTERED TO BROKEN MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND SOME AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND POSSIBLE LIGHT RAIN EXTEND SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THE AREA OF DALLAS TEXAS TO MEXICO AND TEXAS BETWEEN 100W AND THE TEXAS BIG BEND...AND INTO MEXICO NORTH OF 27N BETWEEN 100W AND 105W. THE CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION OCCUR WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS AWAY FROM THE REMNANT LOW PRESSURE CENTER OF EDOUARD. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE/NEIGHBORING ALABAMA/SOUTHEASTERN MISSISSIPPI AND THE COASTAL GULF WATERS. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE FROM 28N TO 29N BETWEEN 86W AND 87W. OTHER ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE SOUTH OF 27N/28N EAST OF 85W...MOVING CYCLONICALLY FROM THE BAHAMAS TOWARD FLORIDA AND SOUTHWARD TO WESTERN CUBA. THIS MOVEMENT IS DUE TO THE CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM 22N73W TO WESTERN JAMAICA AND ONWARD INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. FROM THE BAHAMAS ISLANDS INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 22N73W BETWEEN MAYAGUANA AND LITTLE INAGUA IN THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS JUST WEST OF THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS. A TROUGH CONTINUES FROM THE CYCLONIC CENTER THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 15N80W DIVING INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALONG THE COASTS FROM PANAMA TO SOUTHEASTERN COSTA RICA. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS FROM 24N TO 26N BETWEEN 73W AND 76W JUST NORTHEAST OF THE BAHAMAS. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE JUST NORTHEAST OF JAMAICA. THE 72W/73W TROPICAL WAVE APPEARS TO BE LINED UP WITH SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTHERN COLOMBIA FROM 9N TO 10N JUST WEST OF THE BORDER WITH VENEZUELA. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW CURVES FROM COLOMBIA INTO THE CARIBBEAN WATERS TOWARD HISPANIOLA. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 10N TO 13N BETWEEN 62W AND 65W JUST NORTH OF THE ITCZ AND POSSIBLY UNDER A NEARBY MIDDLE LEVEL TROUGH. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN CONSISTS OF TROUGH-RIDGE-TROUGH-RIDGE- TROUGH...STARTING WITH THE 22N73W NEAR-BAHAMAS CYCLONIC CENTER AND ENDING NEAR 30W. THE SECOND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STARTS NEAR 27N43W TO 24N52W...TO A CYCLONIC CENTER NEAR 20N54W TO 14N56W. CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM TO 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH FROM 20N TO 27N. THE THIRD TROUGH IS ALONG 23N35W 18N38W 13N39W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IN SUBSIDENCE SURROUNDS THESE THE TROUGHS THAT ARE BETWEEN 30W AND 60W. $$ MT