000 AXNT20 KNHC 050604 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT TUE AUG 05 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD IS CENTERED NEAR 29.0N 92.8W AT 05/0600 UTC OR ABOUT 90 MILES...145 KM...SOUTHEAST OF PORT ARTHUR TEXAS AND ABOUT 120 MILES...190 KM...EAST OF GALVESTON TEXAS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 9 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS 997 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. EDOUARD IS SLIGHTLY BETTER ORGANIZED THAN 24 HOURS AGO HOWEVER THE WIND SPEEDS ARE ABOUT THE SAME. A COMBINATION OF SOUTHERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND POSSIBLE DRY AND ENTRAINMENT HAS CONFINED THE CONVECTION TO THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN QUADRANTS. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 28N-30N BETWEEN 91W-93W. EDOUARD IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES IN SOME LOUISIANA COASTAL PARISHES. ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS. OUTER BANDS OF EDOUARD ARE ALREADY AFFECTING THE COAST OF LOUISIANA WITH RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 27W/28W SOUTH OF 20N MOVING WEST NEAR 15 KT. A 1012 MB LOW IS ON THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 13N28W. CYCLONIC TURNING IS ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 15N WHERE THERE IS SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FOUND NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF THE WAVE WITH THE ITCZ AXIS FROM 9N-11N BETWEEN 24W-28W. THE UW-CIMSS TPW PRODUCT AND 850 MB SATELLITE DERIVED VORTICITY SUPPORT THE POSITION OF THE WAVE. A QSCAT PASS ALSO CONFIRMED THE LOCATION OF THE LOW CENTER. A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 44W S OF 17N MOVING W NEAR 20 KT. THIS IS A LOW AMPLITUDE WAVE WAVE WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE CONFINED TO THE ITCZ. A HIGH AMPLITUDE TROPICAL WAVE HAS ENTERED THE E CARIBBEAN. ITS AXIS EXTENDS ALONG 63W S OF 26N MOVING W 20-25 KT. A WEAK 1014 MB LOW IS ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 22N. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ON THE NORTHERN END OF THE WAVE FROM 21N-26N BETWEEN 62W-66W. THE WAVE IS ALSO GENERATING SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AND NE VENEZUELA. WHILE THE N PART OF THE WAVE IS FORECAST TO BREAK AWAY AND MOVE NWD...THE REMAINDER OF THE WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WWD ACROSS THE E CARIBBEAN SPREADING ITS MOISTURE OVER THE UK/US VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO. AN ACTIVE TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN ALONG 83W SOUTH OF 22N MOVING WEST NEAR 20 KT. THE WAVE PAIRED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW SPINNING OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA IS GENERATING A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED TSTMS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN PARTICULARLY FROM 8N-20N WEST OF 80W. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 13N16W 10N30W 12N44W 10N50W 10N62W. BESIDES THE CONVECTION MENTIONED IN THE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION... SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-11N BETWEEN 29W-34W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 8N-11N BETWEEN 54W-57W...AND FROM 9N-12N BETWEEN 59W-62W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... THE MAIN FEATURE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO IS TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD...SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. ELSEWHERE...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA FROM 23N-25N BETWEEN 80W-82W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALSO OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE FROM 18N-21N BETWEEN 90W-94W. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A TINY UPPER LEVEL LOW IS NW OF EDOUARD OVER E TEXAS NEAR 30N95W. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS OVER N TEXAS NEAR 34N100W MOVING SW. ANOTHER SMALL UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE NE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 28N86W. CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE COVERS THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO. EXPECT... EDOUARD TO MOVE W AND MAKE LANDFALL OVER SE TEXAS BY MIDDAY TODAY. ALSO EXPECT CONVECTION OVER THE E GULF OF MEXICO E OF 87W. CARIBBEAN SEA... TWO TROPICAL WAVES ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA. SEE ABOVE. A 1007 MB LOW IS CENTERED INLAND OVER N COLOMBIA NEAR 9N75W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER THE SE CARIBBEAN FROM 9N-12N BETWEEN 76W-80W. ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER W CUBA N OF 20N W OF 78W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A WELL DEFINED UPPER LOW IS OVER THE THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 19N89W. DIFFLUENCE S OF THE CENTER IS ENHANCING THE CONVECTION OVER CENTRAL AMERICA. ANOTHER UPPER LOW IS CENTERED N OF HISPANIOLA NEAR 21N71W. DIFFLUENCE W OF THE CENTER IS ENHANCING SHOWERS OVER CUBA AND JAMAICA. EXPECT THE TROPICAL WAVES TO MOVE W WITH CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...ESPECIALLY THE TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE W CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1024 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 29N50W. A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS W TO N FLORIDA NEAR 29N80W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE BAHAMAS FROM 24N-27N BETWEEN 77W-80W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC N OF 23N BETWEEN 70W-80W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 21N71W. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 33N43W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 34N22W. AN ASSOCIATED TROUGH IS N OF 27N E OF 30W. EXPECT...THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 56W TO BREAK AWAY AND MOVE NW WITH CONVECTION AS A SURFACE TROUGH DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. EXPECT THE REMAINDER OF THE WAVE TO CONTINUE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA. $$ FORMOSA