000 AXNT20 KNHC 050000 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT MON AUG 04 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... EDOUARD...THE FIFTH TROPICAL CYCLONE OF THE 2008 HURRICANE SEASON IS CENTERED NEAR 28.4N 91.6W AT 05/0000 UTC OR ABOUT 110 NM...200 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF LAFAYETTE LOUISIANA AND ABOUT 180 NM...330 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GALVESTON TEXAS MOVING ERRATICALLY WESTWARD. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS 999 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 40 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. EDOUARD IS GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED. THE WIND FIELD IS EXPANDING...WITH TROPICAL STORM FORCE NOW REACHING THE LOUISIANA COASTLINE. MEANWHILE...THE TEXAS COAST HAS TO PREPARE FOR THE SECOND LANDFALL THIS SEASON. ACCORDING TO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK...A TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECT TO OCCUR TONIGHT...AND THE CENTER OF EDOUARD SHOULD BE VERY NEAR THE UPPER TEXAS COAST BY MIDDAY TOMORROW WITH NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH. IT'S IMPORTANT TO REMEMBER THAT THERE IS VERY LITTLE PRACTICAL DIFFERENCE BETWEEN A VERY STRONG TROPICAL STORM AND A LOW-END HURRICANE. THE BIG PROBLEM WITH THIS TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE THE RAIN. EDOUARD IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES IN SOME LOUISIANA COASTAL PARISHES. ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS. OUTER BANDS OF EDOUARD ARE ALREADY AFFECTING THE COAST OF LOUISIANA WITH RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 25W/26W SOUTH OF 20N MOVING WEST NEAR 15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FOUND NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF THE WAVE WITH THE ITCZ AXIS. A CYCLONIC TURNING IS ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 15N WHERE THERE IS SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY. THE UW-CIMSS TPW PRODUCT AND 850 MB SATELLITE DERIVED VORTICITY SUPPORT THE POSITION OF THE WAVE. A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 43W S OF 17N MOVING W NEAR 20 KT. THIS IS A LOW AMPLITUDE WAVE WAVE WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE CONFINED TO THE ITCZ. A HIGH AMPLITUDE TROPICAL WAVE HAS ENTERED THE E CARIBBEAN. ITS AXIS EXTENDS ALONG 61W/62W S OF 26N MOVING W NEAR 20 KT. A 1013 MB LOW IS ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 21N. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ON THE NORTHERN END OF THE WAVE AND JUST N OF THE SFC LOW FROM 22N-26N BETWEEN 60W-64W. THE WAVE IS ALSO GENERATING SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AND NE VENEZUELA. WHILE THE N PART OF THE WAVE IS FORECAST TO BREAK AWAY AND MOVE NWD...THE REMAINDER OF THE WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WWD ACROSS THE E CARIBBEAN SPREADING ITS MOISTURE OVER THE UK/US VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO TOMORROW. AN ACTIVE TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN ALONG 83W SOUTH OF 22N MOVING WEST NEAR 10 KT. THE WAVE PAIRED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW SPINNING OVER BELIZE IS GENERATING A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED TSTMS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN PARTICULARLY FROM 11N-20N WEST OF 80W. SHOWERS AND TSTMS HAVE ALSO FLARED UP OVER PARTS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND N CENTRAL AMERICA. THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER...MIMIC-TPW...SHOWS A NORTH-SOUTH MOISTURE MAXIMUM ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE WHICH IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA/N CENTRAL AMERICA THIS TUESDAY. AN ELY SURGE FOLLOWS THIS TROPICAL WAVE. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 13N16W 10N30W 11N40W 10N50W 10N59W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 8N-11N BETWEEN 23W-31W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... ATTENTION REMAINS FOCUSED ON TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD THAT IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL IN LESS THAN 24 HOURS VERY NEAR THE UPPER TEXAS COAST BY MIDDAY TOMORROW. THIS TROPICAL CYCLONE IS MOVING TO THE SOUTH OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL UNITED STATES. UPPER DIFFLUENCE ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL HIGH TO THE E OF EDOUARD IS ENHANCING CONVECTION OVER THE STATE OF FLORIDA WHILE AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW LOCATED OVER BELIZE IS BRINGING SOME SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY OVER THE SE PORTION OF THE GULF AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. HIGH PRES WILL RE-BUILD ACROSS THE GULF AS EDOUARD MOVES WELL INLAND TUE THROUGH THU. CARIBBEAN SEA... AS TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR...THERE ARE FOUR TROPICAL WAVES BETWEEN AFRICA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. A COUPLE OF THEM ARE CURRENTLY OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA. SEE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION FOR DETAILS. ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OVER PARTS OF CUBA AND HISPANIOLA. A DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT BETWEEN AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW SITUATED NEAR THE SE BAHAMAS AN THE UPPER HIGH OVER THE E GULF IS HELPING TO INDUCE THIS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. IN ADDITION...THE TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE W CARIBBEAN IS ALSO SUPPORTING THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS ACTIVITY OVER W CUBA AND THE ISLE OF YOUTH. TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE ATLC RIDGE AND THE COLOMBIAN LOW IS PRODUCING MODERATE TO STRONG TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE BASIN WITH AN EARLIER QSCAT PASS SHOWING A COUPLE OF UNCONTAMINATED WIND BAR OF 30 KT NEAR THE COLOMBIAN COAST. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1023 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 31N47W EXTENDS A RIDGE ALONG 29W/30W COVERING THE DISCUSSION AREA WITH MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OVER THE W ATLC W OF 70W MORE CONCENTRATED OVER THE NW BAHAMAS. AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE W ATLC CLIPS THE NW PORTION OF THE AREA. ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ENTERS THE REGION NEAR 31N60W THEN CONTINUES SW TO THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW LOCATED NEAR THE SE BAHAMAS. SLY FLOW BETWEEN THIS TROUGH AND A LARGE UPPER-LEVEL HIGH CENTERED 32N44W IS LIMITING THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE SFC LOW EMBEDDED IN THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 61W/62W. PATCHES OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS ARE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC N OF 25N ROTATING AROUND THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED LARGE UPPER-LEVEL HIGH. THIS UPPER FEATURE ENVELOPS THE TROPICAL NORTH ATLC. AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE E ATLANTIC N OF AREA HAS AN UPPER TROUGH ALONG 31N24W 26N28W THEN CONTINUES SW AND WEST ALONG 19W/20N TO 19N45W. $$ GR