000 AXNT20 KNHC 031046 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT SUN AUG 03 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A 1011 MB LOW IS ANALYZED IN THE N GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 28N87W WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING SW TO NEAR 26N89W. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND LIGHTNING DATA INDICATES SCATTERED/ NUMEROUS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM 26N-29N BETWEEN 86W-90W. THIS SYSTEM COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY TO THE WEST OR WEST-SOUTHWEST. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 33W/34W S OF 15N WITH A 1010 MB LOW ANALYZED ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 11N MOVING W 20-25 KT. FAST MOVING LOW CENTER THAT IS BEGINNING TO LOSE ITS IDENTITY. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 10N-13N BETWEEN 37W-40W. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 48W S OF 24N WITH A 1013 MB LOW ANALYZED ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 19N MOVING W 15-20 KT. BROAD LOW LEVEL ROTATION HAS PERSISTED WITH ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION RE-DEVELOPING. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 18N-22N BETWEEN 48W-52W. TROPICAL WAVE IN THE E CARIBBEAN IS ALONG 72W/73W S OF 21N MOVING W 15-20 KT. EASTERLY SURGE WITH A WEAK INVERTED-V CURVATURE ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 15N TO INLAND OVER HONDURAS BETWEEN 71W-78W. TROPICAL WAVE IN THE W CARIBBEAN IS ALONG 85W S OF 23N MOVING W 15-20 KT. WAVE IS BENEATH A WELL DEFINED UPPER LOW MASKING THE SATELLITE SIGNATURE. ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY/CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURE. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N12W 7N21W 11N36W 9N50W 10N62W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-12N E OF 18W TO THE COAST OF W AFRICA. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 5N-9N E OF 31W TO THE COAST OF W AFRICA. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... THE CONCERN THIS MORNING IS STILL THE 1011 MB LOW IN THE N GULF...SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS PUSHING S OVER THE N GULF N OF 28N FROM TEXAS TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. UPPER RIDGE COVERS MUCH OF THE GULF ANCHORED OFF THE TEXAS COAST NEAR 27N95W EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS SE TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE INLAND AND WITHIN 75 NM ALONG THE COAST OF S MEXICO IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. THE UPPER LOW IN THE NW CARIBBEAN COVERS THE SE GULF AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA S OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE AND GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS S OF 26N E OF 83W ACROSS S FLORIDA THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS INTO THE WSW ATLC. OTHERWISE THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF REMAINS RATHER TRANQUIL THIS MORNING WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A SQUALL LINE INLAND OVER W LOUISIANA APPROACHING THE NE GULF COAST. CARIBBEAN SEA... A WELL DEFINED UPPER LOW IS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN BETWEEN THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AND CUBA NEAR 20N83W COVERING THE AREA N OF 16N ACROSS CUBA W OF 76W TO OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THIS IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 17N ACROSS CUBA BETWEEN 75W-83W INCLUDING JAMAICA AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS S OF 17N W OF 83W TO INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA. AN UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN AND COUPLED WITH THE ITCZ ACROSS THE SAME AREA ARE GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 13N W OF 77W. AN UPPER HIGH IS IN THE E CARIBBEAN ENHANCING THE SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE NEAR 72W/73W. MODERATE/STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE CARIBBEAN WHICH COULD USHER IN ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE UPPER LOW IN THE NW CARIBBEAN COVERS THE SW ATLC S OF 26N W OF 77W GENERATING SCATTERED/NUMEROUS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM 23N-28N W OF 77W TO OVER S FLORIDA AND THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS INCLUDING THE N BAHAMA ISLANDS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE BAHAMA ISLANDS INCLUDING THE TURKS AND CAICOS TO OVER THE GREATER ANTILLES W OF THE MONA PASSAGE. BROAD UPPER HIGH COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC W OF 62W ANCHORED NEAR BERMUDA. A WELL DEFINED UPPER LOW IS IN THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 27N56W WITH A SECOND UPPER LOW IN THE E ATLC NEAR 32N29W...BOTH ARE RATHER BENIGN FEATURES. AT THE SURFACE...A SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS ACROSS THE ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1024 MB HIGH JUST E OF THE AZORES EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS SW ALONG 32N37W THROUGH A 1019 MB HIGH IN THE W/CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 27N67W THEN W TO THE BAHAMA ISLANDS. THIS IS GIVING THE ATLC MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE REGION NEAR THE TROPICAL WAVE AND NEAR THE CARIBBEAN AND BAHAMA ISLANDS. THIS SURFACE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE ATLC FOR NEXT FEW DAYS. $$ WALLACE