000 AXNT20 KNHC 021727 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT SAT AUG 02 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1700 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ALONG 28W FROM 7N TO 15N IS MOVING W 15 TO 20 KT. A 1010 MB SURFACE LOW IS ATTACHED TO THE WAVE AT 11N. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS LOCATED AHEAD OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 10N TO 14N BETWEEN 28W AND 32W AND SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE. TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ALONG 42W FROM 12N TO 23N IS MOVING W ABOUT 15 KT. A 1009 MB SURFACE LOW IS ATTACHED TO THE WAVE AT 18N. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS LOCATED MOSTLY AHEAD OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 17N TO 22N BETWEEN 43W AND 46W AND GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE. THE LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THE SYSTEM IS BECOMING BETTER DEFINED AND A 0850Z QUIKSCAT PASS INDICATES SEVERAL 20 TO 25 KT WIND BARBS EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE AXIS. TROPICAL WAVE HAS BEEN INTRODUCED OVER THE E CARIBBEAN ALONG 68W AND IS MOVING W 10 TO 15 KT. THE WAVE WAS ADDED BASED ON AN ANALYSIS OF GOES INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS AND CURRENT OBSERVATIONS OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND OVER/NEAR PUERTO RICO. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS LOCATED FROM NEAR 18N TO 20N BETWEEN 65W AND 68W. TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ALONG 78W/79W IS MOVING W 10 TO 15 KT. THE WAVE IS WEAK AND DIFFICULT TO IDENTIFY WITH CONVECTION CONFINED TO THE AREA ALONG AND OFF THE PANAMA COAST AND N OF JAMAICA. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N14W 8N20W 9N35W 7N50W 8N59W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS LOCATED WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF A 7N19W TO 7N23W LINE AND ALSO ALONG THE COAST OF AFRICA BETWEEN 10W AND 13W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO AND THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA... A MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS LOCATED OVER MEXICO NEAR 21N99W AND IS MOVING W 15 KT. CYCLONIC FLOW IS LOCATED OVER THE SW GULF OF MEXICO S OF 24N W OF 93W. THE SOUTHERN END OF A MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES IS LOCATED ALONG THE GULF COAST STATES BETWEEN WESTERN LOUISIANA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. A 1013 MB SURFACE LOW HAS FORMED JUST W OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA WITH SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION LOCATED N OF 27.5N BETWEEN 85W AND 91W. A WELL-DEFINED ELONGATED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS POSITIONED OVER W CENTRAL CUBA NEAR 22N80W AND IS NEARLY STATIONARY. THE CIRCULATION COVERS THE AREA FROM 17N TO 25N BETWEEN 78W AND 85W. SATELLITE CLOUD DRIFT WINDS INDICATE THE STRONGEST FLOW OVER THE SW QUADRANT. REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN W OF 45W... A MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS OVER THE ATLANTIC EXTENDS FROM THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS TO BEYOND 32N74W. ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS LOCATED WITHIN 5 TO 6 DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES STRONG SUBSIDENCE IN THIS AREA. FURTHER DOWNSTREAM A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION...6 TO 7 DEGREES IN DIAMETER...IS CENTERED NEAR 27N53W AND IS MOVING WNW ABOUT 10 KT. A TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE CIRCULATION INTO THE FAR NE CARIBBEAN. WINDS ALOFT ARE LIGHT OVER THE CARIBBEAN. AT THE SURFACE A MORNING QUIKSCAT PASS INDICATES A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING THROUGH 31N38W TO 28N50W TO 26N65W INTO S FLORIDA. ATLANTIC OCEAN E OF 45W... OVER THE NE PART OF THE DISCUSSION AREA A MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC IS CENTERED IN THE VICINITY OF 32N30W...MOVING NE 10 TO 15 KT. A TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE CIRCULATION TO NEAR 26N35W. OVER THE DEEP TROPICS WINDS ARE EASTERLY ALOFT AND MEASURE UP TO 40 KT AS INDICATED BY SATELLITE CLOUD DRIFT WINDS. $$ CAB