000
AXNT20 KNHC 021030
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SAT AUG 02 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER 
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0945 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IN THE TROPICAL ATLC IS ALONG 40W/41W S OF 23N 
WITH A 1010 MB LOW ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 18N MOVING W 15-20 KT. 
WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL ROTATION WITH CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED 
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 17N-21N BETWEEN 
40W-44W. SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE AS IT MOVES 
OVER SLIGHTLY WARMER WATERS DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CARIBBEAN IS ALONG 76W S OF 21N MOVING W 
10-15 KT. WAVE IS ILL DEFINED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY AND IN AN AREA
DEVOID OF DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE...THUS NO ASSOCIATED SHOWERS OR 
CONVECTION. 

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N11W 7N17W 11N27W 10N33W 11N42W 
10N49W 11N62W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 
9N-13N BETWEEN 24W-29W. SCATTERED CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED 
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 5N-13N E OF 40W TO 
INLAND OVER W AFRICA. 

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE N GULF ANCHORED OVER COAST OF 
LOUISIANA EXTENDING E TO NE FLORIDA PROVIDING UPPER LEVEL 
DIFFLUENCE TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS N OF 27N 
E OF 91W. AN UPPER LOW IS JUST INLAND OVER MEXICO NEAR TUXPAN 
COVERING THE W BAY OF CAMPECHE AND COUPLED WITH AN UPPER RIDGE 
OVER THE E BAY OF CAMPECHE/YUCATAN PENINSULA IS GENERATING 
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS S OF 22N W OF 93W TO INLAND OVER 
S MEXICO. AN UPPER LOW IS IN THE NW CARIBBEAN COVERING THE SE 
GULF AND IS GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM 
24N-25N E OF 85W TO OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS. WHILE AT THE SURFACE 
A RIDGE FROM THE ATLC EXTENDS TO OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. A 
SURFACE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE S OVER THE N GULF LATE TODAY 
INTO SUN THEN MOVE W ON MON AND TUE. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE W CARIBBEAN ANCHORED OVER E PANAMA 
EXTENDING NW TO OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA/BAY OF CAMPECHE INT 
HE GULF OF MEXICO. A WELL DEFINED UPPER LOW IS OVER THE NW 
CARIBBEAN BETWEEN THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AND CUBA NEAR 20N80W 
EXTENDING OVER THE SE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE BAHAMA ISLANDS IN 
THE W ATLC AND AS FAR S AS JAMAICA BETWEEN 76W THE E YUCATAN 
PENINSULA. THIS IS GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS N 
OF 17N ACROSS CUBA BETWEEN HAITI AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. 
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE INLAND OVER CENTRAL 
AMERICA AND ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS. 
AN UPPER HIGH IS OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS COVERING THE E 
CARIBBEAN ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM 15N-20N 
BETWEEN 60W-71W WHICH EXTENDS FROM THE LEEWARD ISLANDS TO THE 
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. THE ITCZ EXTENDS ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN 
FROM COLOMBIA INTO THE E PACIFIC REGION NEAR THE PANAMA/COSTA 
RICA BORDER GENERATING SCATTERED/NUMEROUS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS 
S OF 11N FROM 75W-82W. MODERATE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS DOMINATE 
THE CARIBBEAN USHERING IN SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE 
REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN THIS MORNING. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE UPPER LOW IN THE NW CARIBBEAN COVERS THE SW ATLC S OF 27N W 
OF 74W INCLUDING THE BAHAMA ISLANDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ 
ISOLATED BETWEEN THE BAHAMAS AND E CUBA FROM 74W-78W. AN UPPER 
RIDGE IS ANCHORED JUST N OF THE REGION COVERING THE REMAINDER OF 
THE W ATLC TO 60W. A WELL DEFINED BROAD UPPER LOW IS IN THE 
CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 27N52W BUT REMAINS A RATHER BENIGN FEATURE. A 
BROAD UPPER HIGH COVERS THE E ATLC ANCHORED NEAR 23N24W. AT THE 
SURFACE...A SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS ACROSS THE ATLC ANCHORED BY A 
1026 MB HIGH NEAR THE AZORES EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS SW ALONG 
32N37W ALONG 26N54W THEN W TO OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THIS 
IS GIVING THE ATLC MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE 
REGION NEAR THE TROPICAL WAVE AND NEAR THE CARIBBEAN AND BAHAMA 
ISLANDS. THIS SURFACE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN CONTROL OF 
THE ATLC FOR NEXT FEW DAYS. 
 
$$
WALLACE