000 AXNT20 KNHC 011042 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT FRI AUG 01 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 33W/34W SOUTH OF 23N MOVING WEST 15 KT. A 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 18N. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 19N TO 20N BETWEEN 34W AND 35W. A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 68W/69W SOUTH OF 20N MOVING WEST 15 KT. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS ON TOP OF THE WAVE...CUTTING UP THE CLOUDS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT HAVE BEEN MOVING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS PUERTO RICO. A WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 91W/92W SOUTH OF 18N MOVING WEST 15 KT THROUGH SOUTHERN MEXICO AND WESTERN GUATEMALA. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS IN THE WESTERN ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE TO THE SOUTH OF THE MEXICO COAST IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN...POSSIBLY WITH THE WAVE AND POSSIBLY MORE RELATED TO THE MEXICO CYCLONE. ...THE ITCZ... 9N13W 15N27W 10N36W 9N46W 10N60W. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM 5N TO 7N BETWEEN 10W AND 14W...FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 17W AND 21W...AND FROM 7N TO 10N BETWEEN 36W AND 44W. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 10N TO 11N BETWEEN 46W AND 48W. ...DISCUSSION... FROM THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE SOUTHEASTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 27N50W IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN TO 20N52W...ALONG A SHEAR AXIS TO 21N63W...TO A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 24N78W IN BETWEEN THE BAHAMAS AND CUBA...TO A SUBTLE CYCLONIC CENTER ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA...TO A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IN THE WESTERN ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF MEXICO. THE BELIZE PRECIPITATION FROM SIX HOURS AGO HAS BEEN WEAKENING. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE TO THE SOUTH OF THE MEXICO COAST IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN...POSSIBLY WITH THE WAVE AND POSSIBLY MORE RELATED TO THE MEXICO CYCLONE. A DEEP LAYER CENTRAL ATLANTIC TROUGH REACHES ITS BASE NEAR 30N58W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF THE 27N50W 24N78W TROUGH. THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO... UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS NORTH OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN 24N78W-TO-NORTHWESTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA-TO-WESTERN ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC TROUGH. THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES CYCLONIC SOUTH OF 24N WEST OF 90W IN RESPONSE TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA CYCLONIC CENTER. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES FROM EAST CENTRAL TEXAS TO A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 25N102W IN MEXICO. MUCH OF THE MEXICO PRECIPITATION FROM SIX HOURS AGO HAS DIMINISHED. POSSIBLE SHOWERS REMAIN WEST OF 98W. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 24N78W IN BETWEEN THE BAHAMAS AND CUBA...TO A SUBTLE CYCLONIC CENTER ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA...TO A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IN THE WESTERN ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF MEXICO. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT WERE ALONG THE COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA FROM THE COLOMBIA/PANAMA BORDER TO NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA HAVE BEEN DISSIPATING DURING THE LAST FEW HOURS. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW MOVES FROM THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA INTO THE EAST CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA. A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 68W/69W SOUTH OF 20N. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS ON TOP OF THE WAVE...CUTTING UP THE CLOUDS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT HAVE BEEN MOVING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS PUERTO RICO. THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N37W TO 26N54W TO 24N80W INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 24N93W. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER CONTINUES NEAR 34N38W. AN EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM AN ISOLATED CYCLONIC CENTER NEAR 33N22W TO 23N30W TO 11N39W. $$ MT