000 AXNT20 KNHC 311043 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE JUST HAS PASSED OVER THE TOP OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS SOUTH OF 22N. A 1008 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 17N25W. POSSIBLE SHOWERS ARE FROM 10N TO 24N BETWEEN 10W AND 20W. CONDITIONS DO NOT APPEAR TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 19N58W 15N60W 9N62W IN NORTHEASTERN VENEZUELA. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 12N TO 18N BETWEEN 55W AND 70W. A WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE HAS BEEN RE-POSITIONED TO BE ALONG 82W/83W BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 16N TO 18N BETWEEN 82W AND 84W IN THE WATERS TO THE NORTH OF EASTERN HONDURAS. OTHER ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 100 NM OF THE COAST FROM PANAMA TO NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS ON TOP OF THIS WAVE. ...THE ITCZ... 10N25W 7N40W 11N59W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 40 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 11N24W 9N30W 9N36W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS FROM 6N TO 8N BETWEEN 27W AND 32W...AND FROM 6N TO 11N BETWEEN 39W AND 55W. ...DISCUSSION... FROM THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE SOUTHEASTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 30N53W IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN TO 23N56W...ALONG A SHEAR AXIS TO 24N73W... CONTINUING SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA TO A THIRD CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IN THE NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN SOUTHERN BELIZE. A DEEP LAYER CENTRAL ATLANTIC TROUGH REACHES ITS BASE NEAR 30N58W. A COLD FRONT REACHES ITS SOUTHERNMOST POINT NEAR 32N58W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF THE 30N53W 24N73W TROUGH. THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO... UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS NORTH OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN 24N73W-TO-STRAITS OF FLORIDA-TO-YUCATAN PENINSULA TROUGH... EAST OF 90W. THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES CYCLONIC SOUTH OF 24N WEST OF 90W IN RESPONSE TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA CYCLONIC CENTER. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES FROM THE UPPER TEXAS COAST TO THE LOWER VALLEY OF TEXAS TO A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 25N100W IN MEXICO. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA TO A CYCLONIC CENTER IN THE NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE WATERS TO THE NORTH OF THE EASTERN COAST OF HONDURAS...POSSIBLY ACCOMPANYING THE 82W/83W TROPICAL WAVE. DIFFLUENCE FROM UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS ADDING TO THE CONVECTIVE PROCESSES IN THE PRECIPITATION AREA. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE NORTH OF 17N BETWEEN 74W AND 81W BETWEEN JAMAICA...CUBA... AND HAITI. BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW MOVES FROM THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA EASTWARD...CURVING TOWARD NORTHEASTERN VENEZUELA. A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 19N58W 15N60W 9N62W IN NORTHEASTERN VENEZUELA. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 12N TO 18N BETWEEN 55W AND 70W. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTHERN COLOMBIA FROM 6N TO 9N BETWEEN 73W AND 76W IN AN AREA OF MIDDLE LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW UNDER UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW. THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N37W TO 27N51W TO A 25N68W 1017 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER...TO JUST NORTH OF WESTERN CUBA. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER CONTINUES NEAR 32N41W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS FROM 30N TO 32N BETWEEN 42W AND 43W. AN EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A CYCLONIC CENTER NEAR 30N24W TO CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. $$ MT